Research

As a global change aquatic scientist, I examine the links between climate change and lake ecosystems. I merge disparate data sources and modelling approaches to maximizing the spatial and temporal scope of my work. But my predominantly global scale research is grounded by several regional foci including specific lakes in Central Europe, Central North America, and East Africa. Here is a sample of my research across that range from local to global.

Publications...

An abundant future for quagga mussels in deep European lakes

Quagga mussels have expanded their range across the northern hemisphere in recent decades owing to their dispersal abilities, prolific reproduction rates, and broad ecological tolerances. Their remarkable capacity to filter particulates from the water column has had profound effects on inland aquatic ecosystems. In the North American Great Lakes, quagga mussel populations have increased inexorably since the late 1980's, but it remains unclear whether quagga mussels will follow a similar trajectory in Europe where they have appeared more recently. Here we apply knowledge from a long-term quagga population monitoring effort in the North American lakes to predict future quagga populations in deep European lakes, where quaggas are quickly becoming a conspicuous part of the underwater landscape. We predict that quagga mussel biomass in Lakes Biel, Constance, and Geneva may increase by a factor of 9–20 by 2045. Like in North America, this increase may be characterized by a shift to larger individuals and deeper depths as the population matures. If realized, this rapid expansion of quagga mussels would likely drive the largest aquatic ecosystem change in deep European lakes since the eutrophication period of the mid-20th century.

Worldwide moderate-resolution mapping of lake surface chl-a reveals variable responses to global change (1997–2020)

Anthropogenic activity is leading to widespread changes in lake water quality—a key contributor to socio-ecological health. But, the anthropogenic forces affecting lake water quality (climate change, land use change, and invasive species) are unevenly distributed across lakes, across the seasonal cycle, and across space within lakes, potentially leading to highly variable water quality responses that are poorly documented at the global scale. Here, we used 742 million chlorophyll-a (chl-a) estimates merged over 6 satellite sensors (daily, 1 to 4 km resolution) to quantify water quality changes from 1997 to 2020 in 344 globally-distributed large lakes. Chl-a decreased across 56% of the cumulative total lake area, challenging the putative widespread increase in chl-a that is expected due to human activity.

Climate change drives widespread shifts in lake thermal habitatUsing measurements from 139 global lakes, the authors demonstrate how long-term thermal habitat change in lakes is exacerbated by species’ seasonal and depth-related constraints. They further reveal higher change in tropical lakes, and those with high biodiversity and endemism.

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Widespread deoxygenation of temperate lakesAnalysis of temperate lakes finds a widespread decline in dissolved oxygen concentrations in surface and deep waters, which is associated with reduced solubility at warmer surface water temperatures and increased stratification at depth.

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Global increase in methane production under future warming of lake bottom waters

Lakes are significant emitters of methane to the atmosphere, and thus are important components of the global methane budget. Methane is typically produced in lake sediments, with the rate of methane production being strongly temperature dependent. Local and regional studies highlight the risk of increasing methane production under future climate change, but a global estimate is not currently available. Here, we project changes in global lake bottom temperatures and sediment methane production rates from 1901 to 2099. By the end of the 21st century, lake bottom temperatures are projected to increase globally, by an average of 0.86–2.60°C under Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) 2.6–8.5, with greater warming projected at lower latitudes. This future warming of bottom waters will likely result in an increase in methane production rates of 13%–40% by the end of the century, with many low-latitude lakes experiencing an increase of up to 17 times the historical (1970–1999) global average under RCP 8.5. The projected increase in methane production will likely lead to higher emissions from lakes, although the exact magnitude of the emission increase requires more detailed regional studies.