Working PapersAbstract: This study explores how temporary increases in the demand for service jobs impact educational choices in Italy. We identify exogenous variation in the demand for service jobs using shocks to the tourism industry caused by terrorist attacks abroad. We find that an exogenous increase in tourism exposure decreases college enrollment and completion in the year after the shock. The decline in enrollment is driven by fewer students choosing fields related to humanities and social sciences. Both men and women respond by reducing college enrollment and completion. The effect for men is temporary, while it is permanent for women. We then investigate the mechanism and find that tourism shocks increase employment in the tourism industry as well as overall labor force participation, consistently with a story of increased opportunity costs of college education. Finally, using an IV approach, we quantify these results and find that the average annual increase in tourist arrivals in our sample - 21,000 additional tourists - leads to an increase of 18 workers in tourism while reducing college enrollment and completion by 4 and 6 students, respectively.Abstract: Healthcare expenditure growth is a key economic policy issue threatening the sustainability of public finances in advanced economies. This paper examines the determinants of healthcare expenditure in Switzerland using a time-series analysis for the period 1960-2022. Applying a dynamic OLS and an outlier-robust modified generalized maximum likelihood (MM) estimation approach, we find that income growth, population ageing, and Baumol’s cost disease have all contributed to increasing total and public healthcare expenditure. The analysis suggests an income elasticity between 0.9 and 1.3, accounting for roughly half of the secular increase in healthcare expenditure. Our estimations also suggest a decrease in income elasticity over time. We find that population ageing has contributed by around 15% to the growth in healthcare expenditure. Income growth, demographic shifts, medical progress, slow productivity growth and labor shortages in healthcare are poised to intensify spending pressures in the years ahead, with implications both for total and public healthcare expenditure. Our results substantiate the policy debate on the determinants of healthcare expenditure, provide a tailored evidence basis for the healthcare expenditure projection framework for Switzerland and underscore the need for comprehensive reforms in the health sector to contain expenditure growth.Work-in-progress- Robots and Public Finances: Evidence from U.S. States (with Francesco Jacopo Pintus)
- Climate Change and Public Finances (with Francesco Jacopo Pintus)
- Fiscal Sustainability of the Swiss Healthcare System: Determinants, Projections, and the Impact of Reforms (with Thomas Brändle and Carsten Colombier)
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