How AFL prices are made

Anatomy of a line market

What the line is

A line gives the underdog a head start. If the line is Team A −15.5, a bet on A wins only if A wins by 16 or more; a bet on Team B (+15.5) wins if B wins outright or loses by 15 or fewer. The half-point means the bet can't finish level.

Why both sides are near $1.90

The operator's aim with a line is to find the number at which money on each side roughly balances. It then prices both sides the same, often around $1.90. Each $1.90 implies 52.6%, so the two sides add to 105.3%. That extra 5.3% is the margin. If money arrives evenly, the operator keeps that margin whichever team covers.

Why the line moves, not the price

If money keeps arriving on Team A at −15.5, the operator has two options: shorten A to $1.80 and lengthen B, or keep both at $1.90 and move the line to −16.5 or −17.5. Most choose the second, because a line that stays "even money both sides" is easier for customers to read. So in AFL, watch the number, not the price.

How the opening line is built

Lines start with a model. Analysts rate each team, usually from scoring data, then adjust for:

• Venue and travel. Interstate travel and an away crowd count against a team, and models typically weight some grounds more than others.

• Ground size. Bigger grounds and smaller grounds score differently, which also moves totals.

• Breaks between games, including back-to-back interstate trips.

• Weather. Rain usually lowers totals; wind affects goal kicking.

A worked example (our illustration). A model rates Team A 12 points better than Team B on a neutral ground, and gives A about 4 points for home advantage. The expected margin is about 16 points, so the operator opens at A −15.5. On the head-to-head, the same model gives A about a 64% chance. The fair prices would be about $1.56 and $2.78; with a margin, the operator offers $1.50 and $2.60, which add to 105.2%.

The Brownlow: a market built around integrity

The Brownlow Medal is unlike any other AFL market. The result isn't decided on the field; it comes from umpires' votes after each game, and those votes are known to a small group of people well before the public count. That creates a clear risk of leaked information.

That risk isn't theoretical. In late 2022, after one of the AFL's wagering partners flagged suspicious bets on that year's count, Victoria Police arrested four men, including an AFL field umpire, over the alleged leaking of vote outcomes from specific matches. Both the AFL and police said there was no information suggesting the result itself had been affected.

In August 2023, the Victorian Gambling and Casino Control Commission (VGCCC) let Brownlow wagering go ahead, including markets on round-by-round votes, only after the AFL agreed to tighter controls. They were:

• a ban on wagering by all AFL persons, including umpires;

• a $250 payout limit on all Brownlow round-by-round bets;

• provision of all Brownlow wagering transaction data to the AFL;

• stronger surveillance of umpires and their associates; and

• spot audits of AFL persons.

The VGCCC also said it would monitor further measures, including real-time transaction monitoring and a monthly audit of unapproved bet types. The AFL kept the 3-2-1 voting system itself unchanged, with votes kept secure until the count.

Where things stand now. The August 2023 decision is still the most recent Brownlow wagering decision the VGCCC has published; its page was last updated in December 2025. Brownlow markets have run every year since, and the 2026 count was held on Monday 21/09/2026 in Melbourne. Because conditions can be tightened before any count, check the VGCCC's website before relying on these details.

For pricing, two things follow. A $250 payout cap changes who bets and how much, so these markets can't absorb big money the way a match market can. And the market only exists on the terms the sport and the regulator set. This is a direct example of how Victorian law works: providers need a Product Fee and Integrity Agreement with the AFL before offering markets, the VGCCC approves which events and bet types can be offered, and it can ban a bet type outright (see Who Sets the Price).

Page updates

26/10/2026: first published. No changes since.

Sources for this page

• VGCCC, media release on Brownlow Medal count wagering under new integrity and monitoring provisions, 17/08/2023 — https://www.vgccc.vic.gov.au/for-community/news-and-media/media-releases/betting-brownlow-medal-count-proceed-new-integrity-and-monitoring-provisions (17/08/2023)

• AAP, "AFL spot audits to feature in new Brownlow safeguards" (2023) — https://aapnews.aap.com.au/news/afl-spot-audits-to-feature-in-new-brownlow-safeguards (Accessed 26/10/2026)

• AFL.com.au, report on four arrests over suspicious Brownlow wagering (2022) — https://www.afl.com.au/news/865948/four-men-arrested-by-victoria-police-over-suspicious-2022-brownlow-medal-betting (Accessed 26/10/2026)

• AFL.com.au, Key timings for the 2026 Brownlow Medal — https://afl.com.au/news/1613087/key-timings-how-to-watch-live-stream-and-follow-the-2026-brownlow-medal (Accessed 26/10/2026)

• VGCCC, Online wagering providers — https://www.vgccc.vic.gov.au/for-gambling-providers/wagering-and-betting/online-wagering-and-sports-betting-providers (Accessed 26/10/2026)

• Interactive Gambling Act 2001 (Cth), Federal Register of Legislation — https://www.legislation.gov.au/C2004A00851/latest/text (Accessed 26/10/2026)

• Department of Infrastructure, Transport, Regional Development, Communications, Sport and the Arts, Gambling Reforms 2026 — https://www.infrastructure.gov.au/media-communications/media-gambling-laws-regulation/gambling/gambling-reforms-2026 (Accessed 26/10/2026)