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POAT By Day
POAT By Day
Persons At One Time, or PAOT, is a measure of how many people are on the trail at one time. By measuring the number of people each day, we can graph how many are at the island on each day with respect to the low tide times, which are shown as dotted lines for each day.
Crowding On Sand Bar and Island
Crowding On Sand Bar and Island
To contextualize how crowded the trail looks both at the end of the sand bar and at the beginning of the island, we took pictures duing peak times.
Visitor Hotspots
Visitor Hotspots
Through GPS tracking, we found where most visitors congregated at the end of the sand bar, near where the trail on the island begins.
We also found there were hotspots where the trail split between the "bluffs trail" and the main trail to the summit. We believe this is because there are no markers indicating where to go.
Near the summit, as the trail becomes steeper and narrower, the crowding increases as visitors move more slowly and are nearer to each other. Naturally, at the summit visitors stop, resulting in another area of high traffic.
Example Day
Example Day
For a particular day, we can plot the number of people on Bar Island and sand bar at a given time. This can be done with respect to low tide (in minutes). Each dot is a recordeed count throughout this day.
These curves were fit using the Gaussian Process, with kernel Matern 2.5 * WhiteKernel. The confidence interval is 95%.
Typical Bar Island Day
Typical Bar Island Day
Combining these days, and normalizing with respect to low tide, we can create a typical day. This is done by performing a regression, again with the Gaussian Process. In this case, there is no confidence interval as the population from day to day are too varied.
Typical Bar Island Day
Typical Bar Island Day
Combining these days, and normalizing with respect to low tide, we can create a typical day. This is done by performing a regression, again with the Gaussian Process.
Dots are colored by date of data collection, from yellow to purple.
Ranking of Visitor Preferences
Ranking of Visitor Preferences
During our surveys, we asked visitors to rank they valued most on the Bar Island trail. To easy see how each answer stacked up, we applied a weighted sum, where their first ranking was worth the most, and their last ranking was worth the least. We then added these up and normalized by the sum of all visitors.
Trail Aesthetics and Environmental Protection were neck and neck for the most valuable.
Visitors Knowing When to Leave
Visitors Knowing When to Leave
During our surveys, we asked what the latest time to return from Bar Island would be. 51% of visitors were more than 30 minutes off. In this graph, we compare how far off the visitors were from the correct time for that day. Those in blue were far too early, with greater than 54 minutes than they thought, while those in the orange category guessed more than 90 minutes than they actually had. Those within the green bar (-18, 18] were within 36 minutes are either side of the proper time.
Additional Graphs
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