Post date: Jun 25, 2018 9:23:18 AM
https://arxiv.org/pdf/1806.02404.pdf
A recent paper, where a Bayesian model of epistemic uncertainty is used for parameters in the well known Drake equation (gives number of E.T. civilizations we expect to observe). Due to Biological uncertainties, they conclude that there is a high probability that we are alone in the galaxy. Distributions are estimated from point estimates in the scientific literature and then also from uncertainties in the literature.