The possibility of major shifts in the circulation and structure of the Atlantic Ocean is ringing alarm bells across society. However, the scientific literature reveals considerable disagreement and contradictory evidence on some of the most crucial questions on this topic. The resulting divergent narratives have led to uncertainty and confusion that are ultimately hindering progress in both scientific understanding and societal action.

As the name suggests, this workshop will seek to interrogate the current state of understanding of the dynamical mechanisms, existing records, and future likelihood of major shifts in the currents of the Atlantic Ocean. The goal is to identify, discuss, and investigate areas of agreement and disagreement, and thus to uncover, and collectively report on, where consensus has been reached and provide a roadmap for where further work is needed.

The workshop is supported by the ARIA Forecasting Tipping Points Programme.

Dates

Monday 1st to Wednesday 3rd June (inclusive), 2026.

The workshop will begin at 9am on Monday and end at 5pm on Wednesday.

Location

The specific location is still to be confirmed. It will be within easy reach of London Heathrow airport.

Schedule

Coming soon!

The workshop seeks to bring together researchers across a broad suite of expertise relevant to these questions. We are thus looking for registrations from those involved in (a) reconstructions and observations of circulation strength on different timescales, (b) theoretical and dynamical understanding of the circulation, including its stability and variability, (c) interaction and forcing of the circulation within the broader climate and cryosphere, and (d) simulation and projection of the circulation under future warming scenarios and anthropogenic climate change. We also welcome registrations from those who are considering political and societal vulnerabilities that could arise under major shifts in Atlantic ocean currents.

Spaces at the workshop are limited and applications will be assessed to ensure a broad mix of expertise, demographic, and career stage. Registration closes March 31st. Decisions will be made no later than April 7th.

Submit your registration here.

• Graeme MacGilchrist (University of St Andrews)

• Fiamma Straneo (Harvard University)

• David Thornalley (University College London)

• Eleanor Frajka-Williams (Universität Hamburg)

• James Rae (University of St Andrews)

• Dave Stainforth (London School of Economics)

• Spencer Jones (Texas A&M University)