My dissertation, Three Essays on Extreme Weather, Agricultural Markets, and International Trade, examines these questions across major crop-producing and exporting regions in the United States, Southeast Asia, and South Asia.
A second strand of my research examines international investment, institutions, and economic development. My published work studies how institutional quality and absorptive capacity shape the relationship between foreign direct investment and domestic innovation.
Ph.D Dissertation Essays
Dissertation Essay 1
Rao, Atif, & Villoria, Nelson. (2026). Weather Extremes, Production Value, and Export Allocations: Evidence from Corn and Soybeans in the U.S. Midwest. [Under revision at the Journal of the Agricultural and Applied Economics Association (JAAEA)]
This paper examines how extreme weather is associated with corn and soybean production value across 12 Midwestern U.S. states from 2000 to 2022. I combine high-resolution PRISM weather data with USDA agricultural statistics in a state and year fixed-effects framework. The results show that extreme heat is associated with significant reductions in production value for both crops, with larger approximate effects in states experiencing greater year-to-year heat variability. I also examine the USDA Economic Research Service state export allocation as a secondary, cash-receipts-based constructed outcome. This measure responds less strongly to extreme heat than production value, a difference that is interpreted as a feature of the measure's construction rather than as evidence of observed export behavior. I extend the analysis using CMIP6 climate projections under SSP245 and SSP585 to provide an exploratory assessment of future production conditions through 2100. The projections indicate increasing risks of lower and more volatile production value as exposure to extreme heat rises.
Keywords: Climate extremes · Agricultural production · Extreme heat · Panel econometrics · U.S. Midwest · CMIP6
Data: PRISM · CMIP6 · USDA NASS · USDA ERS
Dissertation Essay 2
Rao, Atif & Villoria, Nelson. (2026). The Impact of Flood Disasters on Rice Trade Flows in Southeast Asia: A Gravity Framework Analysis [Working Paper]
This paper examines how flood shocks are associated with rice trade in Southeast Asia from 1986 to 2022. I combine international and constructed domestic trade flows with EM-DAT flood records and estimate a structural gravity model using Poisson Pseudo-Maximum Likelihood (PPML), exporter-year, importer-year, and bilateral-pair fixed effects. The analysis compares the response of international rice shipments with that of domestic rice flows. At the global level, floods do not produce a statistically significant differential response. Within Southeast Asia, however, each additional flood is associated with an approximately 15 percent more negative response of international rice shipments relative to domestic flows. Country-level estimates are particularly negative for Vietnam and Thailand. Supplementary separate-margin estimates provide additional economic scale. For Thailand, an additional recorded flood is associated with a 6.5 percent decline in international rice shipments, equivalent to approximately US$194 million or 0.49 million tonnes, while the constructed domestic-flow response is not statistically significant. These supplementary estimates use a different fixed-effects structure and complement, rather than decompose, the preferred international-versus-domestic estimate
Keywords: Flood shocks · Rice trade · Structural gravity · PPML · Southeast Asia · Food security
Data: EM-DAT · ITPD-E · Domestic trade-flow measures
Dissertation Essay 3
Rao, Atif, & Villoria, Nelson. (2026). Flood Shocks and Rice Trade in South Asia: Contrasting Responses of India and Pakistan. [Working Paper]
This paper extends my analysis of flood shocks and rice trade to South Asia, focusing on heterogeneity across major rice exporters. Using a structural gravity framework with international and domestic trade flows, I examine whether the trade response to floods differs across countries.
Although the aggregate South Asian response is not statistically significant, substantial differences emerge between India and Pakistan. With each additional flood, India's international rice shipments respond approximately 28 percent more negatively than its domestic rice flows, while Pakistan's international shipments respond approximately 17 percent more favorably relative to domestic flows. A formal test confirms that the India and Pakistan responses are statistically different. Supplementary separate-margin estimates provide additional economic scale. For India, an additional recorded flood is associated with a 3.6 percent increase in the constructed domestic-flow measure and a 1.7 percent decline in international shipments. The international estimate is not statistically significant at the 5 percent level and corresponds to approximately US$56 million or 0.14 million tonnes. Pakistan's separate domestic and international responses are not statistically significant. These results show substantial heterogeneity in how international and domestic rice trade margins respond to flood exposure across major South Asian exporters. The analysis does not identify the mechanisms underlying the difference between India and Pakistan, providing an important direction for future research.
Keywords: Flood shocks · Rice trade · Structural gravity · India · Pakistan · Food security
Data: EM-DAT · ITPD-E · Domestic trade-flow measures
Rao, A., Ali, M., & Smith, J. M. (2024). Foreign direct investment and domestic innovation: Roles of absorptive capacity, quality of regulations and property rights. PloS One, 19(3), e0298913.
Using a cross-country panel, the paper shows that the FDI-innovation link is moderated by institutional quality and absorptive capacity, with implications for technology transfer policy in developing economies.