Job Market Paper
Rao, Atif, & Villoria, Nelson. (2026). Weather extremes and agricultural trade: Evidence from corn and soybean production in the US Midwest [under review following reviewer comments in Journal of the Agricultural and Applied Economics Association (JAAEA)]
This paper estimates how extreme weather affects corn and soybean production and exports across 12 Midwestern US states from 2000 to 2022, linking high-resolution PRISM weather data with USDA production and export records in a two-way fixed effects panel. Two findings stand out. First, exports are less sensitive to extreme weather than production, suggesting that storage, reallocation, and trade adjustment partially buffer climate shocks. Second, responses vary systematically with state-level heat exposure, measured by heating degree days, indicating that the same shock produces different economic outcomes depending on baseline climate. Extending the analysis to 2100 using CMIP6 projections under SSP245 and SSP585, we find that production and export volumes decline while volatility rises, pointing to growing uncertainty for regional and global grain markets.
Keywords: climate extremes, agricultural trade, panel econometrics, US Midwest, CMIP6, food security Data: PRISM, CMIP6 (SSP245, SSP585), USDA NASS, USDA ERS
PhD Dissertation Essay 2
Rao, Atif & Villoria, Nelson. (2026). The Impact of Flood Disasters on Rice Trade Flows in Southeast Asia: A Gravity Framework Analysis
This paper explores how flood shocks affect rice exports in Southeast Asia (SEA) from 1986 to 2022. Using a structural gravity framework estimated with Poisson Pseudo Maximum Likelihood (PPML), we examine whether floods reduce exports more than domestic supply. The results present no statistically significant effect of floods on rice exports worldwide. However, floods reduce international rice shipments by about 15 percent relative to domestic flows in SEA. Country-level results show substantial export sensitivity in Vietnam and Thailand, the region’s two largest rice exporters. These findings suggest that flood shocks affect rice trade not only through production losses, but also through the allocation of available supply between domestic and foreign markets. The results highlight the importance of accounting for regional export concentration and climate exposure when assessing food security risks in thinly traded staple markets.
Keywords: Climate shocks, Structural gravity model, Food security, PPML
PhD Dissertation Essay 3
Rao, Atif, & Villoria, Nelson. (2026). Climate Disasters and Agricultural Production and Exports: Gravity Model Evidence for Corn, Soybeans, Rice, Wheat, and Cotton [Work in progress ]
Rao, A., Ali, M., & Smith, J. M. (2024). Foreign direct investment and domestic innovation: Roles of absorptive capacity, quality of regulations and property rights. PloS One, 19(3), e0298913.
Using a cross-country panel, the paper shows that the FDI-innovation link is moderated by institutional quality and absorptive capacity, with implications for technology transfer policy in developing economies.