Research

Localised employment spillovers (Job market paper) - click here for paper

This paper is the first to provide firm level estimates of the propagation rates of localised employment shocks through space and time. A spatial network of the universe of UK firms with near pinpoint location accuracy is used to estimate the firm-level employment adjustment to mass layoffs. Results show that firm level employment adjustment is highly localised and decays rapidly through space - the negative spillover effects halve approximately every kilometre further away from the event. Firm level adjustment is also highly persistent, with further localised employment losses continuing for at least five years after the event. The spillover effects are experienced by a wide range of local firms, but are strongest in non-tradeable sector firms, consistent with the presence of local product demand transmission mechanisms. The paper provides new supporting evidence to theories that sluggish firm level adjustment interacting with local agglomeration forces generate persistence in local labour market outcomes. Furthermore, the micro-level effects uncovered are extremely localised, and thus more standard analysis methods discretising space into regions will incur significant measurement costs.

Do minimum wages increase search effort? Cambridge Working Papers in Economics CWPE 1857 - click here for paper

This paper identifies the impact of minimum wages on search, distinguishing the decision of whether to search (extensive margin) from the decision of how hard to search (intensive margin) for both non-working and working individuals. The analysis combines data on UK workers' search behaviour with quasi-experimental analysis of the UK minimum wage policy structure, including the 2016 introduction of the National Living Wage. I find an increase in the number of individuals searching, but a decline in search intensity, and a corresponding increase in the duration of unemployed search. Overall, there is no change in employment rates. The results are consistent with search explanations of minimum wage consequences. In contrast, no significant estimates are found for any on-the-job search moments, i.e. higher minimum wages do not provide a disincentive for workers to progress up job ladders.

Hours of work polarization? European Central Bank Working Paper 2324 - click here for paper

Joint with Antonio Dias Da Silva and Filippos Petroulakis

We investigate the relationship between hours per worker and employment polarisation. Our core question is whether hours per worker follow the same polarisation patterns as previously observed for employment, measured by either heads or total hours. Using the occupational task index measures of Acemoglu and Autor (2011), we find large relative declines in hours per worker in routine manual jobs – precisely the occupations most negatively affected by employment polarisation from routine-biased technical change. We also find a lower relative decline in hours per worker for non-routine cognitive analytical jobs, which are growing through polarisation. At the same time, hours per worker declined significantly more than the trend for non-routine manual physical occupations. Instead of a polarisation pattern, we find that hours per worker have been declining more in manual jobs (routine manual and non-routine manual physical). These patterns are observed across age, gender and education groups, with few exceptions and changes in intensity. The decline in hours per worker occurred mostly within sectors. Using a wage ranking of occupations instead of occupational task indices, the decline in hours per worker is monotonically related to wages. The results are specific to the European countries and the same patterns are not found using data for the United States.

• Creedy, J., Gemmell, N. and Laws, A. (2019) `Relative Income Dynamics of Individuals in New Zealand', New Zealand Economic Papers (Forthcoming)
• Aziz, O., Gemmell, N. and Laws, A. (2015), `Income and Fiscal Incidence by Age and Gender: Some evidence from New Zealand.' Review of Income and Wealth, 62(3): 534-558.
• Gush, J., Jaffe, A., Larsen, V. and Laws, A. (2015), `The effect of public funding on research output: The New Zealand Marsden Fund.' New Zealand Economic Papers, 52(5) / NBER Working Paper #21652.
• Turner, N., Roberts, L. and Laws, A. (2011), `Assessing the Effectiveness of Cold Chain Management for Childhood Vaccines.' Journal of Primary Health Care, 3(4): 278-282.