Research

Projects

Paths to Economic Recovery: Analyzing Mobility over a Lifetime of Crises

Abstract. Using German Pension Register data, I examine which individuals are hit by recessions, who recovers, and how fast. Types of crises are categorized and paths to economic recovery are analyzed and compared. Some trends in recovery are consistent across crises: While on average all income groups face losses during economic downturns, only the top 15 percent manage to recover and even improve their real income. For low educated workers and labor market entrants, crises may lead to negative income shocks that only fade out over decades.

Gender Gap in Lifetime Earnings: The Role of Motherhood

Abstract. To obtain a more complete understanding of the gender gap, this paper investigates both the cross-sectional and biographical dimension of gender inequalities. Using an Oaxaca Blinder decomposition, we show that the gender gap in annual earnings is largely driven by women's lower work experience and intensive margin of labor supply. Based on a dynamic microsimulation model, we then estimate how gender differences accumulate over work lives to account for the biographical dimension of the gender gap. We observe an average gender lifetime earnings gap of 51.5 percent for birth cohorts 1964 -1972. We show that this unadjusted gender lifetime earnings gap increases strongly with the number of children, ranging from 17.8 percent for childless women to 68.0 percent for women with three or more children. However, using a counterfactual analysis we find that the adjusted gender lifetime earnings gap of 10 percent differs only slightly for women regardless of their family background.

Are Children Better Off? Intergenerational Mobility of Living Standards (with T. Bönke and H. Lüthen)

Abstract. We examine if children are economically better off than their parents in Germany. Applying a copula approach to gross income, net income and consumption, we uncover declining intergenerational mobility for children born 1957 through 1983. Depending on the concept, mobility drops by about 20 percentage points, from about 0.9 to 0.7 - a decline about twice as high as observed in the US for similar cohorts. Declining growth seems to be a greater driver than increasing inequality.

The Harmonized Income and Expenditure Survey (HIES) (with C. Bartels and T. Bönke)

Abstract. This paper presents the Harmonized Income and Expenditure Survey (HIES). First, original variables of the German Income and Expenditure Survey are harmonized over time in order to provide comparable information across waves. For example, housing wealth recorded in cadastral values in the IES waves up to 1993 is consistently converted to market values. Second, we substitute the top tail of the IES wealth distribution by a Generalized Pareto model jointly estimated on IES and wealth tax data, that offer more precise information on top wealth.

Policy Papers

High School Benchmarks: COVID-19 Special Analysis (with J. Causey, M. Ryu and D. Shapiro), National Student Clearinghouse (2021).

COVID-19 Transfer, Mobility and Progress First Look Spring 2021 Report (with J. Causey, F. Huie, R. Lang, Q. Liu, M. Ryu and D. Shapiro), National Student Clearinghouse (2021).

Who wins? Who loses? The Evolution and Prognosis of Lifetime Earnings in Germany (with T. Bönke, R. Glaubitz, A. Pape and M. Wetter), Bertelsmann Stiftung (2020).

Who wins? Who loses? The evolution of the German labor market from the early German Federal Republic until today (with T. Bönke and M. Wetter), Bertelsmann Stiftung (2019).

The social dividend: Utopian or real policy option? (with T. Bönke and C. Frank), Bertelsmann Stiftung (2018).

A Sovereign Wealth Fund for Germany? Ideas and International Examples (with T. Bönke), Bertelsmann Stiftung (2017).

Contributions to edited volumes / other publications

Die Soziale Erbschaft: Ansatz für eine neue Vermögenspolitik? (with T. Bönke), in Progressives Zentrum and Bertelsmann Stiftung (Eds.) Soziale Marktwirtschaft: All inclusive? Band 3: Vermögen.