Abstract:

This paper examines how seasonal variation in agricultural production shapes migration aspirations among rural households in Nigeria. Drawing on rich household panel data from the 2023–2024 wave of the Nigeria General Household Survey Panel (GHS Panel), we exploit within-season variation in harvest outcomes and migration intentions to estimate the short-run behavioral response to realized agricultural productivity. Our findings reveal a robust inverted U-shaped relationship: migration aspirations initially rise with improvements in harvest value but decline once households reach higher levels of productivity. This non-monotonic pattern reflects the joint influence of rising capability and diminishing incentive to migrate. Further analysis identifies food insecurity as a key moderating mechanism. Households experiencing moderate- to-severe food insecurity are significantly more responsive to agricultural shocks, with migration aspirations rising more steeply following poor harvests. These findings provide new evidence and offer actionable insights for rural development and migration management policies. By linking food security, agricultural outcomes, and migration intentions within the same season, this study highlights the dynamic nature of rural mobility preferences in response to production-based livelihood risks.

Abstract:

Son preference is widespread in many countries and is especially well-documented in South Asia. However, research on this topic in Nepal is limited. This paper provides causal ev- idence of the influence of son preference on fertility behaviors and child health outcomes, using data from multiple rounds of Nepal’s Demographic and Health Surveys. The find- ings reveal that son preference, indicated by the gender of the firstborn, significantly impacts subsequent fertility decisions. Specifically, parents with a firstborn daughter are more likely to desire additional children, reduce contraceptive use, and increase family size in pursuit of a son. This preference also results in shorter birth intervals and re- duced breastfeeding duration, which could potentially compromise child health. Despite these adverse effects on fertility outcomes, the analysis shows no significant impact of son preference on child health aspects such as height, weight, and mortality. By providing causal evidence, examining a broad spectrum of fertility behaviors, and investigating the extension of these effects to child health outcomes, this study fills a significant gap in the existing literature. These findings offer policymakers valuable insights into the persistent influence of cultural norms favoring sons on reproductive decisions and underscore the importance of addressing these biases to promote gender equality and child health in Nepal.

Abstract:

Groundwater supports much of Nepal’s irrigation, yet access, timing, and costs vary widely across regions and farmers. Drawing on multiple national and regional datasets combined with rainfall data, we present an updated picture of irrigation in Nepal, focusing on the Terai. Our analysis reveals three key findings.First, irrigation in Nepal is shifting from surface water to groundwater and from diesel to electric pumps, with electrification concentrated in the Western Terai among larger, better-educated, and often female farmers. Second, regional disparities in groundwater access remain large: the Western Terai shows higher ownership of tubewells and electric pumps, while the Eastern Terai depends more on diesel-based rentals that offer quicker but more expensive irrigation. Third, renters—mostly smallholders and tenants—continue to face higher irrigation costs and longer waiting times, especially in areas with limited rental markets and reliance on diesel fuel. Although irrigation coverage has improved slightly, average waiting times remain about five days, highlighting the challenges of unreliable power supply and weak coordination. We conclude that enhancing groundwater irrigation depends less on expanding pump capacity and more on policies that ensure reliable electrification, improve the efficiency and equity of rental markets, and reduce wait times, particularly for smallholders and tenants.

In India, state election (Vidhan Sabha) results significantly impact constituencies, as state governments hold substantial power over policies and expenditures. These elections occur at the assembly level, a smaller administrative unit than districts. "Low-caste parties," or political parties focused on representing marginalized groups such as Scheduled Castes (SC), Scheduled Tribes (ST), and Other Backward Classes (OBC), can run for office. Using a fuzzy regression discontinuity design and assuming close election results are quasi-random, we examine the welfare impacts when low-caste parties win elections, particularly on health outcomes, which have historically been worse for these marginalized households. We also test whether these effects are lasting or depend on subsequent elections. 

From June 9 to 20, 2025, I conducted a field scoping visit in Bihar along with Satish Bajracharya, as part of work with Yale’s Inclusion Economics India Center. We visited four districts: Bhojpur and Gaya in the south, and Darbhanga and Araria in the north. Our primary mandate, under Inclusion Economics, was to assess the status of Mahatma Gandhi National Rural Employment Guarantee Act (MGNREGA) and its convergence with Jeevika and other government bodies. At the same time, I also focused on three other key aspects: the overall irrigation scenario in the area, the functioning of informal water markets, and the availability and use of weather forecasting services, if any. In each district, we interviewed district officers of MGNREGA and Jeevika, block-level officials, and a cross-section of village residents including Self-Help Group members, large and small farmers, and landless households.

I conducted several key informant interviews with government stakeholders to better understand the institutional framework and processes involved in irrigation governance in Nepal. These interviews were carried out with officials across multiple tiers of government, including national, provincial, and district-level offices. The resulting report from this month-long fieldwork focuses on the division of responsibilities for deep and shallow tubewell installation, subsidy provision, implementation processes, and the overall coordination challenges in Nepal’s irrigation sector.

Works include: Preparation of an agriculture and livestock database for the Suddhodhan Rural Municipality in Kapilvastu District, Nepal. Assessment of climate change vulnerability and risk (VRA) based on the AR5 and NAP frameworks. Providing capacity-building training to local officials and elected authorities on VRA and adaptation plan formulation. Preparation of various thematic maps in GIS based on VRA data. Preparation of eight climate change vulnerability and risk assessment reports. Documentation of historical disastrous events in the area. Conducting workshops at the local level. Formulation of eight climate adaptation and risk reduction plans.