Working Papers
Cutting Free Allocation Cuts Emissions: Evidence from Phase IV of the EU ETS
Job Market Paper, working paper.
This paper studies how the Phase IV reform of EU ETS free allocation affected installation-level emissions and economic activity. Using administrative data and a continuous difference-in-differences design based on changes in initial free allocation, the analysis shows that a 10 percentage-point larger reduction in initial free allocation is associated with approximately 4.6% lower verified emissions during 2021–2024. More exposed installations are also more likely to become inactive or close, while linked firms experience declines in revenue, employment, and productive assets, suggesting that activity adjustment forms an important part of the post-reform response.
Cap, Compete, Invest: The Strategic Trade-offs of Carbon Market Policies with Joseph Tharakan (HEC Liège) & Patrice Cassagnard (UPPA).
Working paper.
This paper develops a Cournot model to study how carbon pricing, free allocation, and the Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism affect investment, output, emissions, and competitiveness when firms invest before competing in quantities. Carbon pricing can generate non-monotonic investment and output responses. Free allocation strengthens domestic investment incentives, while the CBAM also induces foreign investment and can become less protective at high levels. The two instruments therefore generate different effects on output, emissions, and consumer welfare.
Learning from a Moving Policy Target: Twenty Years of Evidence from the European Union Emissions Trading System with Myriam Taik (AMSE) & Dieudonne Ngiruwonsanga (UPPA).
Under review at the Journal of Economic Surveys.
This survey reviews twenty years of evidence on the EU ETS across emissions, firm performance, innovation, carbon leakage, and allowance markets. It shows that apparently conflicting findings often reflect differences in policy regimes, outcomes, and empirical designs. The survey identifies which results remain informative for Phase IV and which are harder to extrapolate following recent reforms.
Coverage Thresholds and Carbon Policy Design: Strategic Capacity Choice, Border Charges, and Free Allocation
Working Paper.
This paper studies how capacity-based regulatory thresholds affect firms’ strategic choices under carbon pricing. Firms can remain below the threshold, bunch at it, or operate above it. A border carbon charge changes these coverage decisions through competition, while free allocation makes regulated production more attractive. Carbon pricing, border measures, and free allocation therefore interact with the coverage threshold and can alter the sectoral distribution of domestic capacity and emissions.
The Uneven Effort of Forest Conservation: A Distributional Approach to Agricultural Conversion Pressure in the Congo Basin with Hugues Barvaux (HEC Liège)
Submitted to Ecological Economics.
We compare agricultural conversion pressure across Cameroon, Gabon, the Republic of the Congo, and the Democratic Republic of the Congo using a spatial index for 874 forest areas. Rather than comparing national averages, we study the distribution of conversion pressure across conservation targets. Cameroon consistently faces the highest pressure, while income normalisation substantially increases the relative conservation effort faced by the Democratic Republic of the Congo.