Publications:

Working Papers

• Cutting Free Allocation Cuts Emissions: Evidence from Phase IV of the EU ETS

Job Market Paper, working paper.

This paper studies the impact of the Phase III to Phase IV reform of the EU ETS on installation-level emissions using administrative data from 2015 to 2023. It exploits variation in the loss of free allocation to estimate a continuous difference-in-differences design. The results show that larger cuts in free allocation significantly reduce verified emissions, with suggestive evidence of an activity-margin adjustment and no detectable short-run competitiveness effects at the firm level within the ETS-linked perimeter.

• Cap, Compete, Invest: The Strategic Trade-offs of Carbon Market Policies with Joseph Tharakan (HEC Liège) & Patrice Cassagnard (UPPA).

 Working paper.

This paper develops a Cournot model to study how carbon pricing, free allocation, and the Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism shape firms’ investment, output, and emissions. It shows that carbon pricing can have a non-monotonic effect on green investment, that free allocation may cushion competitiveness losses while weakening environmental effectiveness, and that CBAM can reduce leakage and strengthen investment incentives, albeit at the cost of output and welfare.

• Two Decades of the EU ETS: A Critical Survey of the Literature

   In preparation.

This survey provides a structured synthesis of the theoretical and empirical literature on the EU ETS over the past two decades. It reviews the evidence on allowance allocation, carbon leakage, competitiveness, innovation, and emissions effectiveness, while highlighting points of consensus and unresolved debates. The objective is to clarify what is known, what remains disputed, and where future research should be directed.

• Carbon Pricing, Capacity, and Leakage: A Constrained Capacity Model of the EU ETS

 Working Paper.

This paper develops a capacity-competition model with carbon pricing and endogenous regulatory exposure to study how firms adjust capacity under the EU ETS. It focuses on how capacity constraints and regulatory thresholds shape production, leakage, and strategic interactions between domestic and foreign firms. The analysis highlights how carbon pricing and border measures can alter incentives to remain below, bunch at, or expand beyond regulatory cutoffs.