Working Papers:
- The Effect of the Homogenization of Higher Education Systems on Student Immigration Flows (link to paper)
Abstract: This paper contributes to the existing literature on the determinants of student spatial mobility by examining the impact of a shared bilateral education system on the location choice of international students. To analyze this, a two-way fixed effect model is derived from a conventional random utility maximization framework for optimal location choice. The model suggests that the harmonization of the education system across countries enhances student mobility between nations by reducing immigration costs. By compiling a data-set of annual international student migration from 21 origin and 23 destination countries spanning from 1999 to 2009, I empirically test the effect of adopting a standardized tertiary education structure on bilateral student flows. Employing a staggered difference-in-differences model, I find that on average, when two member countries have implemented the reform, the origin country experiences an increase in the outflow of students to the destination country by approximately 35.3%. These results provide compelling evidence that the implementation of a standardized tertiary education system successfully accomplishes the objective of enhancing student mobility, as outlined by the Bologna process.
Abstract: This paper evaluates the effect of imposing tuition fees in Sweden on the location decisions of international university students. Using a synthetic difference-in-differences model, I compare non-Swedish EEA students, who are not affected by the policy, to students from a set of developed countries who face this rise in tuition costs over a period of 17 years. I find an average decrease of 130 students per country of origin, which corresponds to approximately 89% of the average number of students from non-EEA developed countries studying in Sweden. The effect is stable over time, additionally, I find weak evidence that fewer foreign students impact the decision of Swedish students to study abroad in the short run.
Abstract: This study seeks to enhance the precision of inflation forecasting within Phillips Curve models by integrating ’special items’ into the analysis. Recent strides in macro-accounting research underscore the substantive correlation between aggregate earnings and subsequent economic activity. Prior findings show that forecasts from the Survey of Professional Forecasters (SPF) do not fully incorporate the information available from aggregate earnings and it is primarily the ‘Special Items’ component of the aggregate earnings that is underestimated. We leverage the information content of this overlooked accounting variable, which responds to macro news shocks in a timely manner and mainly attributable to bad news, to study its impact on future inflation. While the preliminary results do not support the hypothesis that ‘special items’ improves the forecasting power of the baseline Phillips curve model, employing ’special items’ as an indicator of economic slack yields results that align closely with those obtained using more conventional slack measurements.
Work in Progress:
- The Impact of Stimulus Payments on Consumer Spending During the Covid-19 Pandemic
Abstract: Using CEX data, I analyze the impact of the CARES Act stimulus payments in the second quarter of 2020. On average, a consumer unit is expected to use 33% of their stimulus payment. I estimate a log-linearized Euler equation, leveraging randomized payment timing for my empirical strategy.