Supervised by Flora Bellone and Paolo Zeppini
In this PhD thesis, I explore two key structural changes: the growth of international Input-Output (IO) linkages and the rise of green industries, while putting a special emphasis on emerging economies. I investigate how these structural changes are characterised by industrial configurations that create feedback loop effects. I employ network modeling techniques within the framework of autocatalytic networks introduced by Jain and Krishna (1998). To the best of my knowledge, this research is the first attempt to use the autocatalytic networks lens to scrutinize structural transformations within international IO networks. My investigation encompasses three case studies which will be the basis for the three chapters: (i) the emergence of Chinese industries as the center of the global production network; (ii) the changes of input linkages within and across post-Socialist nations; (iii) the co-evolutionary growth of green and non-green industries in emerging economies.
Co-written with Michela Chessa and Dominique Torre
International economics
This article uses a network approach to study the relationship between trade agreements and trade flows. For the first time in the literature, hypergraphs are used to capture the topology of trade agreements. This topology will be compared to that of the commercial flow network. For our analysis, we focused on a snapshot of data from 2017 (before CETA was implemented and before Brexit). A modularity analysis carried out on both trade agreements and trade flows shows an imperfect correspondence between the communities of countries found within the two networks. The results justify Brexit as a means of reconciling networks of trade flows and agreements, and the CETA agreement as a confirmation of Canada's membership in the trade flow cluster including the EU.
Co-written with Xing Yafei, Dieter Mitsche, Konstantin Avratchenkov, Dominique Torre and Michela Chessa
Proceedings of the 2018 IEEE 4th International Conference on Computer and Communications (ICCC).
In this paper, we analyze modularity-based algorithms to obtain clusters of economic datasets. We investigate whether there are correlations between trade data flows between different countries and economic agreements between countries. We apply different methods to the two datasets and compare the results obtained by maximum weight matching. Surprisingly, wenote that there is not a very strong correlation between trade flows and agreements between countries.
Co-written with Antonio Andreoni and Richard Kozul-Wright
This paper examines the impact of the United States' "Liberation Day Tariffs," announced on 2 April 2025, on African economies. Marking a decisive break from the post-Bretton Woods free-trade consensus, these unilateral tariffs aim to reduce trade deficits, reshore supply chains, and strengthen US bargaining power. Although the initial round of tariffs was temporarily replaced by a 10 per cent flat rate for most partners (with harsher terms for China), to allow for bilateral deals and by a moderated regime announced on 31st July, the policy has already triggered global supply chain disruptions and heightened trade tensions. The consequences are particularly severe for African countries, many of which rely on preferential access to US markets to industrialise. This paper develops a theoretical framework to analyse the direct, indirect, and cumulative effects of the new tariff regime and applies it to assess the likely impact on African industrialisation prospects. It also explores the erosion of African market access and discusses potential alternative export destinations, highlighting broader implications for Africa’s role in a rapidly shifting global trade landscape.
Africa is at a critical juncture as the climate crisis and major geopolitical and economic shifts reshape global supply chains, presenting both risks and opportunities. The continent remains largely specialised in low-value natural resource exports, with limited manufacturing and marginal integration into global value chains (GVCs). Foreign control and restrictive trade regimes have hindered industrial upgrading. This paper reviews the structural barriers African countries face in GVCs—including trade liberalisation pressures and reduced policy space—and assesses how initiatives like the African Continental Free Trade Area (AfCFTA) could foster industrial development through regional integration and coordinated policies. It argues for a strategic repositioning of Africa in global production, centred on regional value chains, stronger domestic linkages, and African-led manufacturing.
Co-written with Alexandre Ruiz
In this article, we study the dynamic dependence between "green" and "non-green" capabilities. To this end, we analyze the autocatalytic structure of product interactions using data on bilateral trade flows. The novelty is to provide an assessment of how capabilities green are associated with industrial structure. Furthermore, we show how domestic green capabilities could predict subsequent economic growth in polluting industries.
Co-written with Flora Bellone and Paolo Zeppini
We study the emergence of China as a dominant player in the global economy using the innovative concept of the autocatalytic set (ACS) introduced by Jain and Krishna (1998). We start by building a World Input-Output Network (WION) from the second version of the World Input-Output database (WIOD), which covers the period 2000-2014. We then identify the ACSs in the WION and explore both their scaling properties and their changes over the period. Our analysis shows the evolution of Chinese industries from peripheral positions to central positions of autocatalytic structures and highlights the intertemporal complementarity of local and global circular causality mechanisms in the rise of the Chinese economy.
Sole author
We study the changes in input linkages in post-Socialist economies between 1990 and 2021. We analyze the differences in the evolution of input shares between post-Socialist countries that joined the European Union (CEEU countries) and those that remained in the Russian sphere of influence and joined the Commonwealth of Independent States (CIS). This is done by analyzing an Input-Output network based on the EORA database. From this chapter, we detect different patterns between both groups of countries. CEEU countries tend to partake more in international linkages, while CIS countries tend to be more selfreliant.
Sole author
We use network modeling and the autocatalytic sets framework of Jain and Krishna (1998) to explain how the structure of Input-Output linkages creates clusters in which the effect of price-reducing innovation accumulates. This phenomenon is studied globally by modeling a network based on the World Input-Output Database (WIOD), covering the period 2000-2014. We identify clusters based on the Autocatalytic Set methodology, and we consistently identify lower input prices among cluster members compared to non-members of the clusters.
Co-written with Mathieu Chevrier
While green attitudes are considered costly to adopt and maintain, we observe an increase in the number of people choosing to adopt them. However, we also notice that some people choose not to adopt these green attitudes. In this article, we study how green attitudes (such as bike commuting, local sourcing, vegetarianism, etc.) spread through a social network in a context where no central authorities enforce them. We model these attitudes as competing norms: one costly, the green attitude, and one cost-free, the non-green attitude. We build a contagion model in a network setting that allows for the existence of clusters of nodes in which non-green attitudes dominate. A behavioral economics lab experiment will be conducted to quantify the network effect of the model.