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The meteorological models developed and implemented at CNR-ISAC are employed in the project to provide numerical simulations at high horizontal resolution of the extreme precipitation events associated with atmospheric rivers in the Mediterranean.
A systematic activity in developing original atmospheric models at CNR-ISAC was initiated in the early 1990s, when the first limited area hydrostatic model BOLAM (Buzzi et al. 1994) was set up mainly with the purpose of providing a scientific and operational tool for forecasting severe meteorological phenomena like heavy precipitation and strong winds over Europe and more specifically over the Mediterranean area. In fact, in that period, after the occurrence of major floods, it became clear also in Italy that limited area models could provide much more accurate short-range forecasts, especially of precipitation, than the global models that were almost the exclusive source of information at the time. More recently, the non-hydrostatic, convection-permitting, limited area model MOLOCH (Malguzzi et al. 2006) was developed as a tool for high resolution (1–3 km grid spacing) forecasting, allowing the explicit treatment of atmospheric convection. Finally, the global atmospheric model GLOBO (Malguzzi et al. 2011) was also developed at ISAC, based mainly on the equations and parameterization set of BOLAM, using a simplified ocean and sea ice scheme. More recently, BOLAM and GLOBO have been unified in a single code.
Refer to Davolio et al. (2020b) for a detailed description and update references.
The above models are suitable to simulate and predict the atmospheric circulation from the global to the local scale, at different temporal ranges, with high computational efficiency. They have been used for numerous scientific studies and applications, and they run operationally at CNR-ISAC and in several national agencies and regional meteorological centres in Italy and abroad:
CNR-ISAC (Institute of Atmospheric Sciences and Climate, National Research Council of Italy); This activity is part of an agreement with the National Department of Civil Protection.
ISPRA (Italian Institute for Environmental Protection and Research)
LaMMA (Environmental Monitoring and Modeling Laboratory for the Sustainable Development)
ARPAL (Agenzia Regionale per la Protezione dell’Ambiente Ligure)
ARPAS (Agenzia regionale per la protezione dell'ambiente della Sardegna)
Meteo GR (The National Observatory of Athens)
Meteo.cat (Meteorological Service of Catalonia)
MOST RECENT APPLICATIONS TO MEDITERRANEAN EXTREME EVENTS
BOLAM and MOLOCH have been applied to the study of high-impact weather events in the Mediterraenan, such as Atmospheric Rivers (Davolio et al. 2020a, Sioni et al. 2023; Davolio et al. 2023), heavy precipitation (Davolio et al. 2020b; Giovannini et al. 2021), Mediterranean cyclones, including Medicanes (Pantillon et al. 2024), tornadoes (De Martin et al. 2024) and related impacts (Ferrarin et al. 2021; Ferrarin et al. 2023a; Ferrarin et al 2023b; Ferrarin et al. 2024).
OTHER APPLICATIONS AND RESEARCH STUDIES
CNR-ISAC models have been used for numerous scientific studies and applications, as for instance: sensitivity and impact studies, and diagnostics of meteorological phenomena including severe weather and storms (e.g. Malguzzi et al. 2006; Cavaleri et al. 2010; Fantini et al. 2012; Cioni et al. 2016; Davolio et al. 2016, 2017a; Buzzi et al. 2020); model coupling with hydrological and ocean models (Davolio et al. 2015; Lombardi et al. 2018; Ferrarin et al. 2013, 2019; Poletti et al. 2019); theoretical and idealized studies of instability processes (Davolio et al. 2009; Fantini and Malguzzi 2008); applications to probabilistic and ensemble forecasting, and atmospheric predictability studies (Uboldi and Trevisan 2015; Corazza et al. 2018); data assimilation studies (Tiesi et al. 2016; Davolio et al. 2017b); model validation and intercomparison projects (Nagata et al. 2001; Casaioli et al. 2013). The ISAC NWP models have also been employed as basic tools in many international field experiments such as the international forecasting demonstration project called MAP D-PHASE (Rotach et al. 2009) and the HyMeX campaign SOP1 (Ducrocq et al. 2014; Ferretti et al. 2014), and in numerous European scientific projects.
RELEVANT PUBLICATIONS
RELEVANT PUBLICATIONS
Buzzi A, Fantini M, Malguzzi P, Nerozzi F (1994) Validation of a limited area model in cases of Mediterranean cyclogenesis: surface fields and precipitation scores. Meteor Atmos Phys 53:137-153
Buzzi A, Tartaglione N, Malguzzi P (1998) Numerical simulations of the 1994 Piedmont flood: role of orography and moist processes. Mon Wea Rev 126:2369-2383
Buzzi A, Foschini L (2000) Mesoscale meteorological features associated with heavy precipitation in the southern Alpine region. Meteor Atmos Phys 72:131-146
Buzzi A, D'Isidoro M, Davolio S (2003) A case study of an orographic cyclone formation south of the Alps during the MAP-SOP. Quart J Roy Meteor Soc 129:1795-1818
Buzzi A, Davolio S, Malguzzi P, Drofa O, Mastrangelo D (2014) Heavy rainfall episodes over Liguria of autumn 2011: Numerical forecasting experiments. Nat Hazards Earth Syst Sci 14:1325-1340. https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-14-1325-2014
Buzzi A, Di Muzio E, Malguzzi P (2020) Barrier wind in the Italian region and effects of moist processes. Bulletin of Atmospheric Science and Technology. https://doi.org/10.1007/s42865-020-00005-6.
Casaioli M, Mariani S, Malguzzi P, Speranza A (2013) Factors affecting the quality of QPF: A multi-method verification of multi-configuration BOLAM reforecasts against MAP D-PHASE observations. Meteor Appl 20:150-163
Cavaleri L, Bertotti L, Buizza R, Buzzi A, Masato V, Umgiesser G, Zampieri M (2010) Predictability of extreme meteo-oceanographic events in the Adriatic Sea. Quart J Roy Meteor Soc 136:400-413
Cioni G, Malguzzi P, Buzzi A (2016) Thermal structure and dynamical precursor of a Mediterranean tropical-like cyclone. Quart J Roy Meteor Soc 142:1757-1766
Corazza M, Sacchetti D, Antonelli M, Drofa O (2018) The ARPAL operational high resolution Poor Man's Ensemble, description and validation. Atmos Res 203:1-15
Davolio S, Buzzi A, Malguzzi P (2009) Orographic triggering of long-lived convection in three dimensions. Meteor Atmos Phys 103:35-44
Davolio S, Silvestro F, Malguzzi P (2015) Effects of Increasing Horizontal Resolution in a Convection Permitting Model on Flood Forecasting: The 2011 Dramatic Events in Liguria (Italy). J Hydromet 16:1843-1856
Davolio S, Volontè A, Manzato A, Pucillo A, Cicogna A, Ferrario ME (2016) Mechanisms producing different precipitation patterns over North-Eastern Italy: insights from HyMeX-SOP1 and previous events. Quart J Roy Meteor Soc 142:188-205
Davolio S, Henin R, Stocchi P, Buzzi A (2017a) Bora wind and heavy persistent precipitation: atmospheric water balance and role of air-sea fluxes over the Adriatic Sea. Quart J Roy Meteor Soc 143:1165-1177. https://doi.org/10.1002/qj.3002
Davolio S, Silvestro F, Gastaldo T (2017b) Impact of rainfall assimilation on high-resolution hydro-meteorological forecasts over Liguria (Italy). J Hydrometeorology 18:2659-2680
Davolio S., S. Della Fera, S. Laviola, M. M. Miglietta and V. Levizzani, 2020a: Heavy precipitation over Italy from the Mediterranean storm "Vaia" in October 2018: Assessing the role of an atmospheric river Mon. Wea. Rev., 148, 3571-3588.
Davolio, S., Malguzzi, P., Drofa, O. et al. The Piedmont flood of November 1994: a testbed of forecasting capabilities of the CNR-ISAC meteorological model suite. Bull. of Atmos. Sci.& Technol. 1, 263–282 (2020b). https://doi.org/10.1007/s42865-020-00015-4
Davolio S., M. Vercellino, M. M. Miglietta, L. Drago Pitura, S. Laviola, V. Levizzani, 2023: The influence of an atmospheric river on a heavy precipitation event over the western Alps. Weather and Climate Extremes, 39, 100542, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.wace.2022.100542.
De Martin F., S. Davolio, M. M. Miglietta, V. Levizzani, 2024: A conceptual model for the development of tornadoes in the complex orography of the Po Valley Monthly Weather Review, 152 (6), 1357-1377
Ducrocq V et al (2014) HyMeX-SOP1, the field campaign dedicated to heavy precipitation and flash flooding in the northwestern Mediterranean. Bull Am Meteor Soc 95:1083-1100
Fantini M, Malguzzi P (2008) Numerical study of two-dimensional moist symmetric instability. Adv Geosci 17:1–4
Fantini M, Malguzzi P, Buzzi A (2012) Numerical study of slantwise circulations in a strongly-sheared pre-frontal environment. Quart J Roy Meteor Soc 138:585-595
Ferrarin C, Bajo M, Roland A, Umgiesser G, Cucco A, Davolio S, Buzzi A, Malguzzi P, Drofa O (2013) Tide-surge-wave modelling and forecasting in the Mediterranean Sea with focus on the Italian coast. Ocean Modelling 61:38-48
Ferrarin C, Davolio S, Bellafiore D, Ghezzo M, Maicu F, Mc Kiver W, Drofa O, Umgiesser G, Bajo M, De Pascalis F, Malguzzi P, Zaggia L, Lorenzetti G, Manfè G (2019) Cross-scale operational oceanography in the Adriatic Sea. J of Operational Oceanography 12(2):86-103
Ferrarin C., Bajo M., Benetazzo A., Cavaleri L., Chiggiato J., Davison S., Davolio S., Lionello P., Orlic, M., Umgiesser G., 2021: Local and large-scale controls of the exceptional Venice floods of November 2019 Progress in Oceanography, 197, 102628.
Ferrarin C., Orlic M., Bajo M., Davolio S., Umgiesser G., Lionello P., 2023a: The contribution of a mesoscale cyclone and associated meteotsunami to the exceptional flood in Venice on 12 November 2019 Quart. J. Roy. Meteorol. Soc., 149, 2929-2942. doi: 10.1002/qj.4539
Ferrarin C., F, Pantillon, S. Davolio, M. Bajo, M. M. Miglietta, E. Avolio, D. S. Carrio, I. Pytharoulis, C. Sanchez, P. Patlakas, J. J. Gonzalez-Aleman, E. Flaounas, 2023b: Assessing the coastal hazard of medicane Ianos through ensemble modelling. Nat. Haz. Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 2273-2287.
Ferretti R et al (2014) Overview of the first HyMeX Special Observation Period over Italy: observations and model results. Hydrol Earth Syst Sci 18:1953-1977
Giovannini L., Davolio S., Zaramella M., Zardi D., Borga M., 2021: Multi-model convection-resolving simulations of the October 2018 Vaia storm over northeastern Italy Atmos. Research, 253, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.atmosres.2021.105455
Lagouvardos K, Kotroni V, Koussis A, Feidas C, Buzzi A, Malguzzi P (2003) The meteorological model BOLAM at the National Observatory of Athens: Assessment of two-year operational use. J Appl Meteor 42:1667-1678
Lombardi G, Ceppi A, Ravazzani G, Davolio S, Mancini M (2018) From deterministic to probabilistic forecasts: the 'Shift-Target' approach in the Milan urban area (Northern Italy). Geosciences 8(5):181
Malguzzi P, Grossi G, Buzzi A, Ranzi R, Buizza R (2006) The 1966 'century' flood in Italy: A meteorological and hydrological revisitation. J Geophys Res 111:D24106
Malguzzi P, Buzzi A, Drofa O (2011) The meteorological global model GLOBO at the ISAC-CNR of Italy: assessment of 1.5 years of experimental use for medium range weather forecast. Weather and Forecasting 26:1045-1055
Mariani S, Casaioli M, Coraci E, Malguzzi P (2015) New high-resolution BOLAM-MOLOCH suite for the SIMM forecasting system: assessment over two HyMeX intense observation periods. Nat Haz- ards Earth Sys Sci 15:1–24
Mastrangelo D, Malguzzi P, Rendina C, Drofa O, Buzzi A (2012) First outcomes from the CNR-ISAC monthly forecasting system. Adv Sci Res 8:77–82. https://doi.org/10.5194/asr-8-77-2012
Mastrangelo D, Malguzzi P (2019) Verification of two years of CNR-ISAC subseasonal forecasts. Weather and Forecasting 34:331-344
Mariani S, Casaioli M, Coraci E, Malguzzi P (2015) New high-resolution BOLAM-MOLOCH suite for the SIMM forecasting system: Assessment over two HyMeX intense observation periods. Nat Hazards Earth Sys Sci 15:1-24
Nagata M et al (2001) A mesoscale model intercomparison: a case of explosive development of a tropical cyclone (COMPARE III). J Meteor Soc Japan Ser II 79(5):999-1033
Pantillon, F., Davolio, S., Avolio, E., Calvo-Sancho, C., Carrio, D. S., Dafis, S., Gentile, E. S., Gonzalez-Aleman, J. J., Gray, S., Miglietta, M. M., Patlakas, P., Pytharoulis, I., Ricard, D., Ricchi, A., Sanchez, C., and Flaounas, E. , 2024: The crucial representation of deep convection for the cyclogenesis of Medicane Ianos Weather Clim. Dynam., 5, 1187-1205, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-5-1187-2024.
Poletti ML, Silvestro F, Davolio S, Pignone F, Rebora N (2019) Using nowcasting technique and data assimilation in a meteorological model to improve very short range hydrological forecasts. Hydrol Earth Sys Sci 23:3823-3841
Rotach MW et al (2009) MAP D-PHASE: Real-time Demonstration of Weather Forecast Quality in the Alpine Region. Bull Am Meteor Soc 90:1321-1336
Sacchetti, D., Cassola, F., Corazza, M. et al. The ARPAL atmospheric operational modeling chain and its applications: description and validation. Bull. of Atmos. Sci.& Technol. 5, 1 (2024). https://doi.org/10.1007/s42865-024-00064-z
Sioni F., S. Davolio, F. Grazzini, L. Giovannini, 2023: Revisiting the atmospheric dynamics of the two century floods over north-eastern Italy. Atmospheric Research, 286, 106662, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.atmosres.2023.106662
Tiesi A, Miglietta MM, Conte D, Drofa O, Davolio S, Malguzzi P, Buzzi A (2016) Heavy rain forecasting by model initialization with LAPS: a case study. IEEE Journal of Selected Topics in Applied Earth Observations and Remote Sensing 9(6):2619-2627
Uboldi F, Trevisan A (2015) Multiple-scale error growth in a convection-resolving model. Nonlinear Processes in Geophysics 22:1-13
Trini Castelli S, Bisignano A, Donateo A, Landi TC, Martano P, Malguzzi P (2020) Evaluation of the turbulence parametrization in the MOLOCH meteorological model. Quart J Roy Meteor Soc 146: 124-140. https://doi.org/10.1002/qj.3661
Zampieri M, Malguzzi P, Buzzi A (2005) Sensitivity of quantitative precipitation forecasts to boundary layer parameterization: A flash flood case study in the western Mediterranean. Nat Hazards Earth Syst Sci 5:603-612
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