Work in progress
Work in progress
Residential sorting: the role of green amenities,
with Hélène Bouscasse, Marie Breuillé, and Julie Le Gallo (CESAER), Access on request
Abstract :
This paper estimates the structuring role of environmental amenities in residential location choices in metropolitan France, using an equilibrium sorting model in the tradition of Bayer et al (2004, 2005). Controlling for the standard primitives of residential choice theory, namely housing prices and characteristics, commuting costs, and neighbourhood socioeconomic composition, we ask whether and for which household types environmental amenities constitute an additional structuring force in location decisions. We use the Permanent Demographic Sample (EDP), a longitudinal administrative panel from which we draw 130,798 recent movers, linked to housing transaction prices and precise municipal land-cover data from the OCS-GE map. Housing price endogeneity is addressed through a two-stage instrumental variable approach. We find strong evidence of income-based residential stratification. Controlling for commuting costs, higher-income households sort into wealthier municipalities. Net of these effects, forest cover significantly raises mean residential utility, but this average masks substantial heterogeneity across socio-professional groups. Employees and intermediate professions are the group most responsive to forest proximity, while executives and blue-collar workers deviate downward from this mean. Retirees exhibit a distinctive environmental profile, placing greater weight on water surfaces and urban parks. These results are the first produced at the national scale for France and contribute to an active literature on the structural determinants of residential sorting.
Impact of population and urban forms on municipal expenditures,
With Camille Grivault, Marie Breuillé, and Julie Le Gallo (CESAER) and France Stratégie
Impact of the French environmental score on the demand for new cars,
with Antonio Bento (USC Price), Maria-Eugenia Sanin (CEPS) , and Giulio Vannelli (AAA-data)
The determinants of diesel decline: between public policies and preference evolution
Using Kantar Parc Auto (2005-2023), with Nathan François (Renault), Nathalie Havet and Ouassim Manout (LAET)
New working paper here (in French)
Abstract :
This paper quantifies the drivers of the decline of diesel cars in French purchases between 2005 and 2023, separating the effects of public policies from the evolution of household preferences. We estimate a structural demand model on the Kantar Parc-Auto panel, covering both new and used car markets with individual-level data. We find substantial heterogeneity in car price sensitivity and a modest sensitivity to fuel costs. The bulk of the decline is driven by a marked shift in intrinsic preferences against diesel, concentrated around 2015--2019 and consistent with the accumulation of regulatory and informational signals surrounding the Dieselgate scandal. Inertia is strong: once past diesel ownership is controlled for, intrinsic preference for diesel is no longer statistically significant. Counterfactual simulations suggest that fuel taxes are ineffective due to low fuel price elasticities of vehicle choice. Vehicle price instruments are more promising: a registration tax of around 3,000 euros applied to both new and used diesel vehicles would halve the diesel market share, though the substitution operates mainly towards the outside option rather than towards alternative powertrains. These findings suggest that behavioural and informational factors should be incorporated into welfare analyses and the design of optimal transport policies.
Subsidizing EVs: the role of vertical and horizontal preferences ,
with Juan-Pablo Montero (PUC Chile & MIT) and Maria-Eugenia Sanin (ERUDITE, Université Paris-Est Créteil and Centre for Economics at Paris-Saclay) Link
Communications summer 2026 : JMA, WCERE, IEAWC
Abstract :
While subsidies for new electric vehicles (EVs) are widely implemented, the recent introduction of subsidies for second-hand EVs in several countries raises questions about their economic justification. We develop a theoretical model that incorporates both vertical (vintage) and horizontal (fuel-type) differentiation in consumer preferences for cars. We show that: (i) subsidies for EVs are not a substitute for Pigouvian taxes on gasoline cars; (ii) subsidies for new and second-hand EVs act as complements rather than substitutes; and (iii) subsidies for new EVs should decline over time as the second-hand market develops. Using city-level data from the 2019 and 2021 French car fleet and a random coefficient logit model, we estimate consumer preferences and find a strong inclination toward newer models but limited substitution across fuel types. We run counterfactual analysis to quantify the fleet and welfare outcomes of different policy scenarios. Our findings support the theoretical propositions.
Greening the car fleet: determinants of demand for new and used cars, feebates and private initiatives to make EVs affordable.
Job-market Paper
Communications at the EAERE annual conference, and the 10th Atlantic Workshop on Energy and Environmental Economics. Link
Abstract :
Globally, the transport sector is the second-largest source of CO2 emissions, with private road transportation accounting for the majority of these emissions. In this study, we use a structural model and a novel dataset of the French new and used car markets to estimate the determinants of private car demand and price sensitivity. Based on these estimates, we assess the fleet-greening potential of public policies - various feebate designs - and private-sector initiatives - such as introducing a low-end electric vehicle - aimed at making electric vehicles accessible to low- and middle-income households. Our findings demonstrate that targeting low-income households is effective from both distributive and environmental perspectives.
Closing the Emission Gap: EU CO2 Standards and Plug-in Hybrid Vehicles,
With Quentin Hoarau (EconomiX, Université Paris Nanterre) and Maria-Eugenia Sanin (ERUDITE, Université Paris-Est Créteil and Centre for Economics at Paris-Saclay)
Abstract :
Plug-in Hybrid Electric Vehicles (PHEVs) have become a cornerstone of the European automotive market, driven by favorable tax treatments and their strategic role in helping manufacturers meet fleet-wide CO2 targets. However, empirical evidence shows a substantial "emission gap": official test procedures underestimate real-world pollution discharges by three to five times.
This paper investigates the welfare consequences of correcting this gap regarding the carbon content of PHEVs. Precisely, we evaluate the impact of Regulation (EU) 2023/443, which introduces more restrictive assumption on the distance driven in electric mode to align it with real-world CO2 monitoring data. Using a structural model of supply and demand on the German and French new car markets, we simulate alternative market equilibria under this tightened regulatory regimes in terms of welfare, through manufacturer pricing strategies, consumer surplus, and substitution between different vehicle technologies. We find that the reform generates a measurable reduction in aggregate emissions and a clear shift away from conventional internal combustion technologies. We also find this shift is significantly stronger for the case of France.
Car-fuel poverty: determinants and policy implications for France,
with Maria-Eugenia Sanin (CEPS), Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Volume 185, July 2024, Paper , older version
Abstract :
In the face of inflation following the Ukrainian crisis, several European governments implemented a generalized gasoline subsidy. In contrast, the reduction of fossil-fuel consumption is crucial to mitigate the current energy and climate crises. Fuel consumption for transport increases with income, making rich households the main beneficiaries of generalized subsidies. In this context, a thorough investigation of the nature of vulnerability to rising gasoline prices is needed to formulate targeted policies. Herein, we contribute in this line for the case of France. Firstly, we develop three metrics of car-fuel poverty. Secondly, we use multivariate statistic analysis to identify car-fuel-poor household profiles. Then, we estimate the socioeconomic determinants of such vulnerability. We find that, aside from income, household composition, region, access to public transport, and house ownership significantly impact the probability of being car-fuel-poor. Then, using our results, we evaluate the impact of recent subsidies implemented in France and suggest alternative targeted policies. We find that the policies that have been implemented are regressive and incur in inclusion and exclusion errors. Instead, a targeted subsidy fully compensating the car-fuel-poor would have been efficient implying, at the same time, important government savings.
Quelles tendances des émissions des transports dans l'Union Européenne ? Décomposition des facteurs explicatifs sur la période 1990-2019. Analyst Brief Enerdata - Sept 2022 - With Aurélien Bigo, Laura Sudries and Bruno Lapillonne.