An Overview of the Scale of the Effect of the Covid 19 Pandemic
An Overview of the Scale of the Effect of the Covid 19 Pandemic. BackgroundThis essay examines an overview of the scale of the effect of the Covid 19 Pandemic on the World and the UKWhilst any death, case, illness, unemployment or isolation due to the Covid 19 Pandemic has a major effect on families and individuals that is beyond quantification the effect of the number of Covid 19 cases in relation to the World and the UK can be related to global and national data to obtain an overview. The overview does not disregard government instructions to each person. All of the following data must be taken as assuming all governent restrictions are followed and maintained constantly until removed. MethodThe global and national data examined in this essay covers, World Population, Number of Cases of Covid 19 Worldwide, Number of Deaths from Covid 19 Worldwide, Groups Most at Risk, Global Birth Rate, Global Birth Rate Decline, Global Fertility Rate Decline, Global Death Rate, Global Crude Death Rate, per 100,000 Population, Global Economy, Global Workforce, Global Unemployment, Global Government Actions to Control the Pandemic, Effects of Global Government Actions to Control the Pandemic, UK Population, Number of Cases of Covid 19 UK, Number of Deaths from Covid 19 UK, Coronavirus Covid-19 Related Deaths by Ethnic Group, England and Wales, UK Birth Rate, UK Death Rate, UK Economy, Businesses in the UK, Pre Covid 19 Pandemic Workforce of the UK, Post Covid 19 Pandemic Workforce of the UK UK Unemployment, Global Warming and Climate Change Effects. Conclusions are drawn for each section examined. World PopulationAllowing for a global population of 7,800,000,000.Source: Current World Population - Worldometer https://www.worldometers.info Number of Cases of Covid 19 WorldwideAs of 14th August 2020 the number of cases of Covid 19 globally was approximately 20,936,041. .The number of cases of Covid 19 related to the global population was(20,936,041 / 7,800,000,000),*100 = 0.27% of the population.Source: Current World Population - Worldometer https://www.worldometers.info The overview suggests that the global cases from the Covid 19 Pandemic are a minimal number of the global population. Number of Deaths from Covid 19 WorldwideAs of 14th August 2020 the number of deaths was approximately 759,000.The number of deaths from Covid 19 related to the global population was(759,000 / 7,800,000,000),*100 = 0.0097% of the population.Source: Current World Population - Worldometer https://www.worldometers.info The overview suggests that the global deaths from the Covid 19 Pandemic are a minimal number of the global population. Groups Most at Risk"The virus that causes COVID-19 infects people of all ages. However, evidence to date suggests that two groups of people are at a higher risk of getting severe COVID-19 disease. These are older people (that is people over 60 years old); and those with underlying medical conditions (such as cardiovascular disease, diabetes, chronic respiratory disease, and cancer). The risk of severe disease gradually increases with age starting from around 40 years. It's important that adults in this age range protect themselves and in turn protect others that may be more vulnerable. WHO has issued advice for these two groups and for community support to ensure that they are protected from COVID-19 without being isolated, stigmatized, left in a position of increased vulnerability or unable to access basic provisions and social care."Source: Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) https://www.who.int > situation-reports The overview indicates that the Covid 19 coronavirus has a significant effect among certain groups. People over 60 and people with underlying medical conditions. Global Birth RateIn 2020 the global population was growing at 87,761,706 births per year.The number of cases of Covid 19 related to the global birth rate was(20,936,041 / 87,761,706),*100 = 23.8% of the birth rate per year.Source: Worldometer - real time world statistics https://www.worldometers. The overview suggests that the cases from the Covid 19 Pandemic are a minimal percentage when compared to the Global Birth Rate. Global Birth Rate Decline"Compared with the 1950s (when the birth rate was 36 per 1000), as of 2011, the global birth rate has declined by 16 per 1000."Source:Birth rate - Wikipedia https://en.m.wikipedia.org The overview suggests that the cases from the Covid 19 Pandemic are not primarily responsible for the Global Birth Rate decline. Global Fertility Rate Decline"The fertility rate - the average number of children a woman gives birth to - is falling. If the number falls below approximately 2.1, then the size of the population starts to fall. In 1950, women were having an average of 4.7 children in their lifetime." 'Researchers at the University of Washington's Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation showed the global fertility rate nearly halved to 2.4 in 2017 - and their study, published in the Lancet, projects it will fall below 1.7 by 2100." "As a result, the researchers expect the number of people on the planet to peak at 9.7 billion around 2064, before falling down to 8.8 billion by the end of the century.""It is being driven by more women in education and work, as well as greater access to contraception, leading to women choosing to have fewer children. In many ways, falling fertility rates are a success story." "This will be a truly global issue, with 183 out of 195 countries having a fertility rate below the replacement level."Source: 'Jaw-dropping' world fertility rate crash expected by James Gallagher Health and science correspondent BBC University of Washington's Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation. The overview suggests that the cases from the Covid 19 Pandemic are not primarily responsible for the Global Fertility Rate decline and will not be responsible for the predicted future population decline. Global Death Rate"According to the World Health Organization, the ten leading causes of death, globally, in 2016, for both sexes and all ages, were as presented in the table below." Global Crude Death Rate, per 100,000 Population1. Ischaemic heart disease, 126.2. Stroke, 77 per 100,000 population.3. Chronic obstructive pulmonary disease, 41.4. Lower respiratory infections, 405. Alzheimer's disease and other dementias, 27.6. Trachea, bronchus, lung cancers, 23.7. Diabetes mellitus, 21.8. Road injury, 19.9. Diarrhoeal diseases, 19.10. Tuberculosis, 17.Source: WHO Staff (2018). "Global Health Observatory (GHO) data: Top 10 causes of death". Geneva, CH: World Health Organization. Retrieved January 31, 2020. From 1950 to 2010 the global crude death rate declined.From 2010 to 2020 the global crude death rate remained at 8.1 deaths per 1000 population.Source: World historical and predicted crude death rates (1950–2050) UN, medium variant, 2012 rev.Source: ^ "UNdata - record view - Crude death rate (deaths per 1,000 population)". data.un.org. The overview suggests that the global death rate has been in decline for sixty years from 1950 and stable for ten years to 2020. The Covid 19 pandemic has not yet had a major effect on this pattern. The number of deaths of Covid 19 related to the global population per 100,000 people in 2019 to 2020.7,800,000,000 / 100,000 = 78,000 groups of 100,000 people.759,000 / 78,000 = 9.73 deaths per 100,000 people.Source: Current World Population - Worldometer https://www.worldometers.info The overview suggests that the deaths from the Covid 19 Pandemic are not equal in death rate per 100,000 people to the top 10 primary health concerns causing death globally prior to the pandemic. The top 10 health concerns are also like the Covid 19 virus in that they are not fully understood or treatable. So they could each also be considered as hidden pandemics. Global EconomyIn relation to the Covid 19 Pandemic."In total, the most-affected countries represent nearly 40 percent of the global economy.""The daily movements of people and the sheer number of personal connections within these transmission complexes make it unlikely that COVID-19 can be contained."Source: COVID-19: Briefing note #1, March 2, 2020 The following is McKinsey’s perspective as of March 2, 2020. What we know about the outbreak The overview suggests that the Covid 19 Pandemic was and will be an increasing influence over the global economy. It can be extrapolated from the briefing note that this influence is due to the most influential economic countries having the largest population, population density and transport systems. These characteristics allow any diseases to spread undetected through a population and then externally to other countries. Global Workforce Allowing for a reported global workforce of 3,440,000,000 in 2018.Allowing for a global population of 7,800,000,000.Source: "International Labour Organization: Unemployment rate".Source: Current World Population - Worldometer https://www.worldometers.info(3,440,000,000 / 7,800,000,000)*100 = 44% of the population work to support 56% of the population. The overview suggests that prior to the pandemic a smaller workforce supported a larger non-working global population. Global Unemployment"According to the UN's International Labour Organization (ILO), there were 172,000,000 people worldwide (or 5% of the reported global workforce) without work in 2018."Source: "International Labour Organization: Unemployment rate". The overview suggests that prior to the pandemic there was a minimal part of the global workforce without work. Global Government Actions to Control the Pandemic.When the Covid 19 virus outbreak became a pandemic global governments ordered restrictions on moverment, travel, social interaction and mass gathering to control the spreasd of the virus. The Effects of Global Government Actions to Control the Pandemic.The global population remained in their homes and self isolated.Only critical workers remained at work.Noncritical production stopped.Critical production of medicines, food, water and sanitary products was maintained.Global supply of consumet products became limited.Global transport systems reduced.There was a reduced global demand for noncritical productsNoncritical workers were placed on furlough.There was government financial support for furloughed workers.There was education for the children of critical workers.The education for noncritical workers children stopped.There was economic sector failure due to country specific restrictions leading to economic sector 'mothballing' or in extreme cases closure.Workers were eventually laid off as economic sectors shut down.There was focused public spending on critical parts of the economy.There was reduced consumer spending.There was reduced consumer confidence.There was global economic contraction.There was global economic depression.Source: COVID-19: Briefing note #1, March 2, 2020 The following is McKinsey’s perspective as of March 2, 2020. What we know about the outbreak The overview suggests government policy to reduce the spread of the Covid 19 pandemic has changed the global balance of the workforce and the global economy. UK PopulationThe total UK population as of 2019 - 2020 was 67,886,011.Source: Population Estimates - local authority based by five year age band. NOMISSource: U.K. Population (2020) - Worldometer https://www.worldometers.info UK Number of Cases of Covid 19As of 13th August 2020 the number of cases of Covid 19 in the UK was 315,581Source:COVID-19 pandemic death rates by country. WikipediaThe number of cases of Covid 19 related to the population is 315,581 / 67,886,011),*100 = 0.46% of the population.Source:COVID-19 pandemic death rates by country. WikipediaThe number of cases per 1000 of the population.67,886,011 /1000 = 67,886 groups of 1000 people.315,581 / 67,886 = 4.64 cases per 1000 people.The number of cases per 100,000 of the population.67,886,011 /100,000 = 678.86 groups of 100,000 people.315,581 / 678.86 = 464 cases per 100,000 people. The overview suggests that the cases from the Covid 19 Pandemic are a minimal percentage and number of the UK population. UK Number of Deaths from Covid 19As of 13th August 2020 the number of deaths from Covid 19 in the UK was 46,791This gives a fatality rate of 14.8% of cases.This gives deaths per 100,000 people of 70.37.Source: Mortality Analyses . Johns Hopkins Coronavirus Resource Center.Source:COVID-19 pandemic death rates by country. WikipediaFrom the number of deaths per 1000 of the population.67,886,011 /1000 = 67,886 groups of 1000 people.67,886,011 /100,000 = 678.86 groups of 100,000 people.46,791 / 678.86 = 68 deaths per 100,000 people. The overview suggests that the deaths from the Covid 19 Pandemic are a minimal percentage and number of the UK population. Coronavirus (COVID-19) Related Deaths by Ethnic Group, England and Wales."Comparison of deaths where the coronavirus (COVID-19) was mentioned on the death certificate by broad age group, sex and ethnic group, using linked census and mortality records on deaths registered up to 17 April 2020. Includes death counts, cause-specific mortality ratios and odds ratios to identify differential risks of COVID-19-related deaths.""This provisional analysis has shown that the risk of death involving the coronavirus (COVID-19) among some ethnic groups is significantly higher than that of those of White ethnicity.""These results show that the difference between ethnic groups in COVID-19 mortality is partly a result of socio-economic disadvantage and other circumstances, but a remaining part of the difference has not yet been explained."Source: ONS Coronavirus (COVID-19) related deaths by ethnic group, England and Wales: 2 March 2020 to 10 April 2020 The overview indicates that the Covid 19 coronavirus has a significant effect among some ethnic groups in the UK. There are indications that this is partly attributable to socio-economic disadvantage. UK Birth RateIn 2017 there were 11.724 births per 1000 people.In 2018 there were 11.543 births per 1000 people.In 2019 there were 11.488 births per 1000 people.Source: U.K. Birth Rate 1950-2020 | MacroTrends The overview suggests that prtior to the pandemic the UK birth rate was declining.The overview suggests that the cases from the Covid 19 Pandemic are not primarily responsible for the UK birth rate decline. UK Death RateIn 2017 there were 9.314 deaths per 1000 people.In 2018 there were 9.382 deaths per 1000 people.In 2019 there were 9.398 deaths per 1000 people.Source: U.K. Death Rate 1950-2020 | MacroTrends The overview suggests that prtior to the pandemic the UK death rate was increasing.The overview suggests that the cases from the Covid 19 Pandemic are not primarily responsible for the UK death rate increase. UK Economy"The latest available business surveys in the UK and real-time indicators point to a significant decline in economic activity."Source: ONS 6thMay 2020 Coronavirus and the effects on UK labour market statistics. "The coronavirus pandemic and the government response to its impact have had a significant effect on the UK labour market. Many businesses have ceased operating or have had to change their working practices, while recent government interventions have allowed for the furloughing of workers. In addition, the introduction of social distancing has also changed to the way individuals work or their ability to look for and find employment.The combined effect of the impacts have not only changed the UK labour market, but also our ability to measure it."Source: ONS 6thMay 2020 Coronavirus and the effects on UK labour market statistics UK Government policy to reduce the spread of the Covid 19 Pandemic has changed the balance of the UK workforce and UK economy. Businesses in the UKIn 2000 there were 3,467,000 private sector businesses.In 2019 there were 5,868,000 private sector businesses. Between 2000 and 2019 there were 2,401,000 extra businesses. A 69% increase over the whole period.Source: Business statistics - UK Parliament https://researchbriefings.files.parliament.ukSource: BRIEFING PAPER Number 06152, 31 July 2020 Business statistics www.parliament.uk/commons-library In 2000 only 32% of all private sector businesses employed anyone.In 2019 only 24% of all private sector businesses employed anyone.The progression is towards self - employment. "The proportion of businesses with employees has fallen since 2000 from around a third, to around a quarter. This decline in the number of employers as a proportion of all businesses is due to the growth in self- employment."Source: BRIEFING PAPER Number 06152, 31 July 2020 Business statistics www.parliament.uk/commons-library In 2019 "Although the vast majority of businesses in the UK employ fewer than 10 people, this sort of business only accounts for 33% of employment and 22% of turnover."Source: BRIEFING PAPER Number 06152, 31 July 2020 Business statistics www.parliament.uk/commons-library In 2019 "There are 8,000 large businesses, with more than 250 employees, accounting for 0.1% of businesses but 40% of employment and 48% of turnover,..."Source: BRIEFING PAPER Number 06152, 31 July 2020 Business statistics www.parliament.uk/commons-library The overview indicates that prior to the pandemic the number of businesses in the UK was increasing. The majority of business in the UK employed less than 10 people.There was a growth towards self - employment. The larger businesses employed more people.This economic structure may have decreased the resilience of the population and economy in the UK to cope with the measures ordered by the UK Government in order to reduce the spread of the virus. "Over a third of UK businesses are in London or the South East (1.1 million in London and 940,000 in the South East)."Source: BRIEFING PAPER Number 06152, 31 July 2020 Business statistics www.parliament.uk/commons-library The overview indicates that a large portion of businesses in the UK were located near the largest concentration of population and population density prior to the pandemic. This may have decreased the resilience of these businesses to cope with the measures ordered by the UK Government in order to reduce the spread of the virus. Businesses by Industry in the UK, 2019Industry. Number of Businesses. % Employment. Turnover.Services 4,360,000 74% 79% 71%Construction 1,037,000 18% 8% 9%Manufacturing 276,000 5% 10% 15%Agriculture,Mining,Utilities 194,000 3% 3% 6%Source: BRIEFING PAPER Number 06152, 31 July 2020 Business statistics www.parliament.uk/commons-library The overview indicates that the Service Industry sector would be the part of the UK economy that would be less resilient in coping with the pandemic and then the lockdown ordered by the UK Government in order to reduce the spread of the virus. "The business birth rate is the proportion of active businesses that began trading in the reporting year. The business death rate is the proportion of active businesses that ceased trading in the reporting year."Source: ONS, Business Demography, 2019; House of Commons Library calculations "The volume of business births and deaths is proportionate to the business population as a whole. Generally, there are more business births and deaths in a bigger business population."Source: ONS, Business Demography, 2019; House of Commons Library calculations "In 2018 in the UK, there were 381,000 business births, roughly the same as in the previous year. The number of business births in the past five years is considerably higher than in the period before that. In 2018, there were 56% more business births than in 2000."Source: ONS, Business Demography, 2019; House of Commons Library calculations "There were 336,000 business deaths in 2018, 26,000 fewer than in the previous year.This is the biggest fall in the number of business deaths since 2010, when the UK left recession following the financial crisis.There were 58% more business deaths in 2018 than in 2000." "Since 2000 there have only been two years when the business death rate was higher than the business birth rate: 2009 and 2010, the years immediately following the financial crisis."Source: ONS, Business Demography, 2019; House of Commons Library calculations The overview suggests that the number of businesses in the UK was increasing prior to the pandemic. This suggests that the Covid 19 pandemic and UK Government restrictions will have an effect on the number of businesses in the UK. Pre Covid 19 Pandemic Workforce of the UKFor December to February 2017 33,400,000 people were in the UK labour force.Source: "UK labour market". ONS. 12 April 2017. Retrieved 12 April 2017.Given the UK population in 2017 of 65,511,098 people.(33,400,000 / 65,511,098)*100 = 50.98%Source: Wikipedia.Source: Google searchSource: UKometers For September to November 2019 a record 32,900,000 people aged 16 years and over were in employment.Source: ONS. Labour market overview, UK: 21st January 2020Given a UK population as of 2019 - 2020 of 67,886,011.Source: Population Estimates - local authority based by five year age band. NOMISSource: U.K. Population (2020) - Worldometer https://www.worldometers.infoThe percentage of employed people was(32,900,000 / 67,886,011)*100. = 48.46% The overview suggests that prior to the pandemic a smaller workforce supported a larger non-working UK population. For January to March 2020 there were 33,140,000 people aged 16 years and over in employment.Source: ONS Labour market overview, UKGiven a UK population as of 2019 - 2020 of 67,886,011.Source: Population Estimates - local authority based by five year age band. NOMISSource: U.K. Population (2020) - Worldometer https://www.worldometers.infoThe percentage of employed people was(33,140,000 / 67,886,011)*100. = 48.46% For April to June 2020 there were 32,920,000 people aged 16 years and over in employment.Source: ONS Labour market overview, UK: 11 August 2020Given a UK population as of 2019 - 2020 of 67,886,011.Source: Population Estimates - local authority based by five year age band. NOMISSource: U.K. Population (2020) - Worldometer https://www.worldometers.infoThe percentage of employed people was(32,900,000 / 67,886,011)*100. = 48.81% The overview suggests that prior to the pandemic the UK workforce varied to between 48% to 51% of the UK population. Post Covid 19 Pandemic Workforce of the UK.The UK Government; in order to reduce the spread of the Covid 19 virus; ordered only Critical Workers to remain in work. All other workers were instructed to self isolate at home. Critical Worker Types.Health and social care.Education and childcare.Key public services.Local and national essential government. Food and other necessary goods.Public safety and national security.Transport.Utilities, communication and financial services. A distinction, a split, between the workers that are needed, the critical and those that are not needed, the noncritical, has emerged out of the global Governments Lockdown response to the Covid 19 Coronavirus Pandemic constraints. The Number of Key Critical Workers.The Institute for Fiscal Studies has estimated that from the labour force data of 2018 - 2019 22% of all working individuals were in the set of key workers.This equated to 7,100,000 (7,238,000 from 2019 employment figures) adults across their UK. 26% of all women in the labour force were in these critical occupations. 18% of all men were in the labour force werein these critical occupations. Italics added.Source: Institute for Fiscal Studies. Key Workers Kery Facts and Questions.20/03/2020 "Approximately 7,500,000 people were temporarily away from paid work in June 2020, with over 3,000,000 of these being away for three months or more. Of those away for three months or more, at the end of June 2020 over three-quarters were earning half or more of their salary."Source: ONS Labour market overview, UK: 11 August 2020 The overview suggests that the pandemic has exposed the minimum number of employed people required to keep the UK economy active and ensure the continuance of the population. Only 22% of the population is needed to be in work to keep a sufficient UK economy to sustain the UK population.This is approximately half of the pre pandemic UK workforce. A post Covid 19 UK must adapt to operating at this level. The UK will have less transport, less travel, less tourism, less products, less manufacturing, less welfare and less work. Spread of the Key Workers per UK Country.As a share of the working age population key workers were not evenly spread across the UK.Scotland. 22% to 23%Wales. 26% +N.Ireland. 22% to 23%England. 19% to 26%Source: Institute for Fiscal Studies. Key Workers Kery Facts and Questions. 20/03/2020 The overview suggests that not all parts of the UK had the same post pandemic number of key workers. Consequently each country in the UK has a different economic resilience. This unequal situation will increase exponentially as the pandemic continues to give each country less equal transport, less equal travel, less equal tourism, less equal products, less equal manufacturing, less equal welfare and less equal work. UK Key Worker Types.63% of key workers were predominantly women.Source: Institute for Fiscal Studies. Key Workers Kery Facts and Questions.20/03/202042% of kery workers had at least one child aged 16 or younger.Source: Institute for Fiscal Studies. Key Workers Kery Facts and Questions.20/03/202016% of key workers had a partner.Source: Institute for Fiscal Studies. Key Workers Kery Facts and Questions. 20/03/202028% of key workers with dependent children had a partner who was also a key worker.Source: Institute for Fiscal Studies. Key Workers Kery Facts and Questions. 20/03/202046% of key workers with dependent children had a partner who was not a key worker.Source: Institute for Fiscal Studies. Key Workers Kery Facts and Questions. 20/03/20204% of key workers lived in households with someone aged 70 and over. A person who wass part of a group at risk of serious complications from Covid 19.Source: Institute for Fiscal Studies. Key Workers Kery Facts and Questions.20/03/2020 The overview suggests that the post pandemic survivability of the UK will be dependent on women critical workers who have at least one child aged 16 or younger and a partner who is also a critical worker. This unequal critical worker dependancy situation could increase exponentially as the pandemic continues and the economy evolves. UK UnemploymentUnemployment in the UK can be traced through history. "Recognition of unemployment occurred slowly as economies across the world industrialized and bureaucratized. Before then, traditional self-sufficient native societies have no concept of unemployment. The recognition of the concept of "unemployment" is best exemplified through the well documented historical records in England. For example, in 16th-century England no distinction was made between vagrants and the jobless; both were simply categorized as "sturdy beggars", who were to be punished and moved on."Source: "Sturdy Beggars". Probertencyclopaedia.com. Archived from the original on 8 June 2011. Retrieved 22 July 2009. The overview suggests unemployment is an artificially created human concept. "The closing of the monasteries in the 1530s increased poverty, as the Roman Catholic Church had helped the poor. In addition, there was a significant rise in enclosures during the Tudor period. Also, the population was rising. Those unable to find work had a stark choice: starve or break the law. In 1535, a bill was drawn up calling for the creation of a system of public works to deal with the problem of unemployment, which were to be funded by a tax on income and capital. A law that was passed a year later allowed vagabonds to be whipped and hanged."Source: "Poor Tudors". Localhistories.org. Retrieved 22 July 2009. R. O. Bucholz, Newton Key, Early modern England, 1485–1714, p176 "In 1547, a bill was passed that subjected vagrants to some of the more extreme provisions of the criminal law: two years' servitude and branding with a "V" as the penalty for the first offense and death for the second."Source,: R. O. Bucholz, Newton Key, Early modern England, 1485–1714, p176 "During the reign of Henry VIII, as many as 72,000 people are estimated to have been executed."Source: "History of the Death Penalty". Public Broadcasting Service (PBS). The overview suggests that UK state policy historically enforced the concept of avoiding unemployment through punishment. This conditioned the UK population to fear unemployment. "In the 1576 Act, each town was required to provide work for the unemployed."Source: "Poverty in Elizabethan England". BBC – History. "The Elizabethan Poor Law of 1601, one of the world's first government - sponsored welfare programs, made a clear distinction between those who were unable to work and those able-bodied people who refused employment."Source: "Social Classes in Shakespeare's England" Archived 16 March 2010 at the Wayback Machine.," "Under the Poor Law systems of England and Wales, Scotland and Ireland, a workhouse was a place for people unable to support themselves could go to live and work."Source: "British social policy, 1601–1948 Archived 30 June 2007 at the Wayback Machine", The Robert Gordon University, Aberdeen. "By 1776, some 1,912 parish and corporation workhouses had been established in England and Wales and housed almost 100,000 paupers." "A description of the miserable living standards of the mill workers in England in 1844 was given by Fredrick Engels in The Condition of the Working-Class in England in 1844."Source: Engels, Fredrick (1892). The Condition of the Working- Class in England in 1844. London: Swan Sonnenschein & Co. pp. 45, 48–53.Link is to excerpt "In the preface to the 1892 edition, Engels noted that the extreme poverty he had written about in 1844 had largely disappeared. David Ames Wells also noted that living conditions in England had improved near the end of the 19th century and that unemployment was low."Source: Engels, Fredrick (1892). The Condition of the Working- Class in England in 1844. London: Swan Sonnenschein & Co. pp. 45, 48–53.Link is to excerpt The overview suggests that the historic UK state policy that conditioned the population to fear unemployment was deliberately linked to charitable action and the development of a welfare system to create a self supporting economy. By the 20th century the post empire UK state was subject to the global economy. Unemployment in the UK remained in millions after World War 2. It increased into multiple millions by the 1980's. From the 1980's to the 2000's unemployment has increased and decreased through global influence.Source: "Unemployment, issue briefing". Politics.co.uk. Retrieved 27 July 2011.Source: Unemployment WikipediaSource: "Unemployment, issue briefing". Politics.co.uk. Retrieved 27 July 2011.Source: Phelps, Edmund S.; Zoega, Gylfi (2002). "The Incidence of Increased Unemployment in the Group of Seven, 1970–94".Source: In Bitros, George; Katsoulacos, Yannis (eds.). Essays in Economic Theory, Growth and Labor Markets. Cheltenham: Edward Elgar. pp. 177–210. ISBN 978-1-84064-739-6.Source: "CPA Poster Collection". Conservative Party Archive Poster Collection. Archived from the original on 12 August 2011. Retrieved 17 October 2018.Source: "Historical UK Inflation And Price Conversion". Safalra's Website. 15 April 2010. Retrieved 27 July 2011. The Number of UK Unemployed"In the three months to February 2017 there were 1,560,000 people classed as unemployed. These figures gave an official UK unemployment rate of 4.7%."Source: "UK labour market". ONS. 12 April 2017. Retrieved 12 April 2017.Given the UK population in 2017 of 65,511,098 people. The percentage of unemployed people was(1,560,000 / 65,511,098)*100 = 2.38%Source: Wikipedia.Source: Google searchSource: UKometersThe number of cases of Covid 19 related to the population is 315,581 / 67,886,011),*100 = 0.46% of the population.Source:COVID-19 pandemic death rates by country. Wikipedia The number of cases of Covid 19 in the population is less than the historic February 2017 unemployed percentage. "For September to November 2018, an estimated 1,374,000 people were unemployed." Source: ONS. Labour market overview, UK: 21st January 2020Given the UK population in 2018 of 67,270,000 people. The percentage of unemployed people was(1,374,000 / 65,511,098)*100 = 2.09%Source: Google searchSource: Overview of the UK population: November 2018 The number of cases of Covid 19 related to the population is 315,581 / 67,886,011),*100 = 0.46% of the population.Source:COVID-19 pandemic death rates by country. Wikipedia The number of cases of Covid 19 in the population is less than the historic February 2018 unemployed percentage. "For September to November 2018 an estimated 8,655,000 people aged between 16 and 64 years were not in the labour force and were economically inactive." Source: ONS. Labour market overview, UK: 21st January 2020Given the UK population in 2018 of 65,511,098 people. The percentage of people not in there labour force was(8,655,000 / 65,511,098)*100 = 13.21%Source: Google searchSource: Overview of the UK population: November 2018The number of cases of Covid 19 related to the population is 315,581 / 67,886,011),*100 = 0.46% of the population.Source:COVID-19 pandemic death rates by country. Wikipedia The number of cases of Covid 19 in the population is less than the historic September to November 2018 people not in the labour force percentage. "For September to November 2019, an estimated 1,310,000 people were unemployed." Source: ONS. Labour market overview, UK: 21st January 2020 Given a UK population as of 2019 - 2020 of 67,886,011.Source: Population Estimates - local authority based by five year age band. NOMISSource: U.K. Population (2020) - Worldometer https://www.worldometers.infoThe percentage of unemployed people was(1,310,000 / 67,886,011)*100. = 1.93%The number of cases of Covid 19 related to the population is 315,581 / 67,886,011),*100 = 0.46% of the population.Source:COVID-19 pandemic death rates by country. Wikipedia The number of cases of Covid 19 in the population is less than the historic September to November 2019 people unemployed percentage. "For September to November 2019 an estimated 8,510,000 people aged between 16 and 64 years were not in the labour force and were economically inactive." Source: ONS. Labour market overview, UK: 21st January 2020 Given a UK population as of 2019 - 2020 of 67,886,011.Source: Population Estimates - local authority based by five year age band. NOMISSource: U.K. Population (2020) - Worldometer https://www.worldometers.infoThe percentage of people not in the labour force was(8,510,000 / 67,886,011)*100. = 12.54%The number of cases of Covid 19 related to the population is 315,581 / 67,886,011),*100 = 0.46% of the population.Source:COVID-19 pandemic death rates by country. Wikipedia The number of cases of Covid 19 in the population is less than the historic September to November 2019 people not in the labour force percentage. Global Warming and Climate Change EffectsFollowing the restrictions forced upon the world and the UK by governments to reduce the spread of the Covid 19 virus there is a second adaptation that will be needed within the next thirty years that of climate change. The critical worker economies that have formed out of the pandemic are unlikely to return to the unlimited resource use, constant energy use, high employment, high wage, high spend, indulgent consumer societies that were being developed efore the pandemic until a vaccine is found and distributed. These economies are however closer to the types of low fossil fuel use, low carbon, low resource use, low energy use, renewable, circular, economies that will have to be formed to adapt to climate changes before they outpace human ability to mitigate them. The current social and economic context is likely to form a template for the world and UK up to the middle of the century. Ian K Whittaker
My Websites: http://sites.google.com/site/architecturearticlesEmail: iankwhittaker@gmail.com14/10/20205892 words