Archi Arnob

Working Papers
"Inheriting Risk: Theory and Evidence on Parental Substance Use, Child Outcomes, and PDMP Mandates" (Under Review - With Kangzheng Ding). 

Abstract: This paper examines whether strict mandatory-access Prescription Drug Monitoring Programs (PDMPs) affect primary caregivers’ mental health and children’s mental health and educational outcomes, and whether effects differ by household substance-use risk. We develop a theoretical model of parental health management under present bias, where PDMP constraints can reduce impulsive opioid use but may induce harmful substitutions and household stress. Using 2016–2023 National Survey of Children’s Health data linked to state-level PDMP adoption, we estimate two-way fixed-effects and staggered-adoption event-study models. Household substance-use risk is large: any adult tobacco use, indoor smoking, or a caregiver alcohol/drug problem raises poor/fair caregiver mental health by 24, 21, and 36 percentage points (pp) and elevates child anxiety, low school engagement, and grade repetition. PDMPs reduce caregiver distress by 2.1 pp and low engagement by 1.1 pp. Treatment-effect heterogeneity by household risk shows mandates widen academic failure in high-risk homes: grade repetition increases by 1.6 pp (tobacco), 2.4 pp (indoor smoking), and 1.5 pp (caregiver substance problem), and behavior problems rise by 2.6 pp when a caregiver reports substance problems—concentrated among boys, younger children, and poorer families. Event studies confirm parallel pre-trends and reveal persistent post-mandate increases in grade repetition. Findings imply PDMPs deliver modest caregiver benefits but can magnify educational disparities.

"Online Sports Betting or Online Poverty Trap? Impacts on Children’s Human Capital" (Under Review - With Kangzheng Ding). 

Abstract: Online sports betting (OSB) expanded rapidly after the U.S. Supreme Court struck down PASPA in Murphy v. National Collegiate Athletic Assn. (2018). We estimate whether state legalization affects children’s human capital and whether impacts concentrate in strained households. We develop a poverty-trap framework in which reference-dependent risk preferences can make liquidity-constrained households gamble through OSB to meet basic needs, with expected losses crowding out schooling investments. We link 2016-2023 National Survey of Children’s Health data to online sports betting legality and estimate difference-in-differences models with state and year fixed effects and state-clustered standard errors, supplemented with event-time estimates robust to heterogeneity. Average effects are modest: legalization reduces the probability of missing 11+ school days due to illness or injury by 0.7 percentage points, with no detectable pooled effects on low engagement, grade repetition, volunteering, or teen work. Heterogeneity is substantial. Among children at or below 100% of the federal poverty line, legalization is associated with higher chronic absenteeism in tobacco households (+3.1 pp), higher grade repetition in indoor-smoking households (+7.9 pp), and higher low engagement in strained families (+2.1 pp). Event-study estimates show limited pre-trends and short-lived post-legalization movements. The results imply distributional and intergenerational spillovers beyond financial outcomes.

"Happy Hours Gone Wrong: The Impact of Alcohol Consumption on Suicide" (Under Review). 

Abstract: In 2021, 48,200 people committed suicide in the U.S., with the male rate four times higher than the female rates. In the same year, 155 million adults (60%) reported drinking alcohol. Given the widespread prevalence of alcohol consumption, sixteen states have implemented bans or restrictions on happy hours, prohibiting businesses from offering discounts or price promotions, initially aimed at reducing drunk driving and excessive drinking. This study examines annual state-level data from 2003–2021, using suicide data from the CDC and alcohol consumption data from BRFSS, with a two-stage least squares approach with Happy Hour policies as an instrumental variable for alcohol consumption. The first-stage results confirm that the policies significantly reduce alcohol consumption. In the second stage, a 1% increase in alcohol consumption leads to 0.504 additional suicides per 100,000 people, with 3.6 times greater impacts on white males (0.620) than on white females (0.174). These findings suggest stricter Happy Hour restrictions could reduce both alcohol consumption and suicide rates.

Please email me for the current version of the working papers. 

Work in Progress 

"How do Environmental Factors Influence Alcohol Consumption?" 

"How Nurses’ Working Conditions Affect Mortality?"

Teaching 

Instructor:

ECON 409: Sports Economics - Fall 2025

ECON 142: Principles of Microeconomics (Asynchronous) - Summer 2025

Graduate Teaching Assistant:

ECON 526: Introduction to Econometrics - Spring 2026

ECON 522: Macroeconomics - Spring 2026

ECON 104: Introductory Economics - Spring 2025

ECON 142: Principles of Macroeconomics - Fall 2022, Spring 2023, Fall 2024

ECON 144: Principles of Microeconomics - Fall 2022, Spring 2023

"Different constraints are decisive for different situations, but the most fundamental constraint is limited time."- Gary Becker