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I am a 3rd year Ph.D. student in Economics at the University of Kansas. My research focuses on health economics, economics of risky behavior, and applied microeconomics. I primarily study how changes in public policy and local context shape substance use, mental health, and family well-being.
Prior to graduate study, I graduated magna cum laude from the State University of New York at Plattsburgh, majoring in economics and mathematics.
Outside of research, I follow a wide range of sports and enjoy board games. I’m drawn to the strategy and the numbers, from lineups and tactics to probabilities and outcomes, whether on the field, on the court, or at the table.
Contact: aarnob@ku.edu
Working Papers
"Inheriting Risk: Theory and Evidence on Parental Substance Use, Child Outcomes, and PDMP Mandates" (Under Review - With Kangzheng Ding).
Abstract: This paper examines whether strict mandatory-access Prescription Drug Monitoring Programs (PDMP) affect primary caregivers’ mental health and children’s mental health and educational outcomes, and whether effects differ by household substance-use risk. We develop a theoretical model of parental health management under present bias, where PDMP constraints can reduce impulsive opioid use but may induce harmful substitutions and household stress. Using 2016–2023 National Survey of Children’s Health data linked to state-level PDMP adoption, we estimate stacked difference-in-differences and event-study models. Mandatory-access PDMP adoption is associated with lower opioid mortality, suggesting that these mandates changed the opioid-risk environment. PDMP adoption is associated with modest improvements in caregiver mental health but increase in grade repetition. Household substance-use risk is large. Any adult tobacco use, indoor smoking, or a caregiver alcohol/drug problem worsens caregiver mental health and elevates child anxiety, low school engagement, and grade repetition. Findings imply that PDMP generate modest caregiver benefits but may create disparities in risky households.
"Beyond the Bettor: Theory and Early Evidence on Online Sports Betting and Children’s Human Capital" (Under Review - With Kangzheng Ding).
Abstract: Online sports betting has transformed gambling from a location-bound activity into an always-accessible household financial temptation. We study whether this policy change spills over to children by linking the National Survey of Children’s Health data to staggered state legalization of online sports betting. We develop a framework in which reference-dependent preferences and liquidity constraints make gambling exposure more consequential for financially strained households. We first show that legalization corresponds to meaningful increases in betting activity. Average effects on children’s outcomes are small, but they mask important heterogeneity. Children in financially strained and higher-risk households experience more adverse changes, especially in illness-related school absences and adolescent work behavior. These findings show that the welfare costs of online sports betting may extend beyond bettors themselves and may fall unevenly across families.
"Happy Hours Gone Wrong: The Impact of Alcohol Consumption on Suicide" (Under Review).
Abstract: In 2021, 48,200 people committed suicide in the U.S., with the male rate four times higher than the female rates. In the same year, 155 million adults (60%) reported drinking alcohol. Given the widespread prevalence of alcohol consumption, sixteen states have implemented bans or restrictions on happy hours, prohibiting businesses from offering discounts or price promotions, initially aimed at reducing drunk driving and excessive drinking. This study examines annual state-level data from 2003–2021, using suicide data from the CDC and alcohol consumption data from BRFSS, with a two-stage least squares approach with Happy Hour policies as an instrumental variable for alcohol consumption. The first-stage results confirm that the policies significantly reduce alcohol consumption. In the second stage, a 1% increase in alcohol consumption leads to 0.504 additional suicides per 100,000 people, with 3.6 times greater impacts on white males (0.620) than on white females (0.174). These findings suggest stricter Happy Hour restrictions could reduce both alcohol consumption and suicide rates.
Please email me for the current version of the working papers.
Work in Progress
"How do Environmental Factors Influence Alcohol Consumption?"
"How Nurses’ Working Conditions Affect Mortality?"
Teaching
Instructor:
ECON 419: Health Economics - Fall 2026 (Scheduled)
ECON 409: Sports Economics - Fall 2025
ECON 142: Principles of Microeconomics (Asynchronous) - Summer 2025
Graduate Teaching Assistant:
ECON 526: Introduction to Econometrics - Spring 2026
ECON 522: Macroeconomics - Spring 2026
ECON 104: Introductory Economics - Spring 2025
ECON 142: Principles of Macroeconomics - Fall 2022, Spring 2023, Fall 2024
ECON 144: Principles of Microeconomics - Fall 2022, Spring 2023
"Different constraints are decisive for different situations, but the most fundamental constraint is limited time."- Gary Becker
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