Research

Malthouse, E., Pilgrim, C., Sgroi, D., Accerenzi, M., Alfonso, A., Ashraf, R. U.,.... Ertl., A., ... & Hills, T. (2026). The private solution trap in collective action problems across 34 nations. Proceedings of the national academy of sciences, 123(12), e2504632123.

Ertl, A. (2025). Pacific Alliance (PA). In The Economics of Regional Integration (pp. 249-267). Routledge.

Economic Preferences across Generations and Family Clusters: A Comment (With Dániel Horn and Hubert János Kiss)

Abstract: Chowdhury, Sutter and Zimmermann (2022) assessed the risk, time, and social preferences of family members in rural Bangladesh, presenting two main findings. First, there is a strong and positive association between family members' preferences, even when controlling for personality traits and family background. Second, families can be grouped into two clusters: approximately 20% of the families are characterized by relatively impatient, risk-averse, and spiteful members, while the rest of the families have relatively patient, risk-tolerant, and prosocial members. Recognizing the pivotal role of cluster analysis in deriving the second result, we first successfully computationally reproduced the results, and then we conducted two types of robustness checks. The first examines the transformation of variables (continuous or categorical), affecting the proximity measure that is crucial to cluster analysis. The second assesses the effect of varying the number of clusters on the findings. Some results are robust, as we consistently find the small cluster of families identified by Chowdhury et al. (2022). However, divergent outcomes emerge with categorical variables (a logical choice given their nature) and a larger number of clusters (3 or 4). We conclude that, although the cluster analysis by Chowdhury et al. (2022) is valid, its outcomes significantly depend on the researcher's assumptions and choices. Careful consideration of several alternatives is essential in exploratory cluster analysis to identify stable groups.

Working paper available here

Heterogeneity of Economic Expectations–Dissecting the Role of Socioeconomic Status (With Hubert János Kiss)

Abstract: Economic decisions depend on economic expectations. Using Hungarian monthly survey data between 2000 and 2009, we show that the relationship between expectations (both at the macroeconomic and household levels) and socioeconomic status (SES), as represented by income rank and education level, is non-linear. In many instances, there is no significant difference in expectations between the two lower quintiles. However, individuals in the upper (fourth and top) quintiles exhibit significantly more positive expectations than those in the lower quintiles. There is also a clear difference in expectations between the fourth and the top quintiles. In terms of education level, individuals with a high-school degree have significantly more positive expectations compared to their peers without one. Significant differences in economic expectations are also observed between high-school graduates and individuals with a university diploma, particularly regarding inflation, savings expectations, and the assessment of the household’s future financial situation. Disparities in household-level expectations based on SES are more pronounced than those in macroeconomic expectations. Past experiences and household-level optimism seem to be key factors influencing macroeconomic expectations. Furthermore, we document that both macroeconomic and household-level expectations predict the intention for significant expenditures, even after controlling for SES variables.

Working paper available here

Preference Clusters and Economic outcomes (with Dániel Horn and Hubert János Kiss)

We measured time, risk, social, and competitive preferences in a sample of 1,035 secondary school students in Hungary. We examine whether meaningful groups of adolescents can be identified based on distinct constellations of these preferences, which we refer to as\textit {preference clusters}. We also explore whether these clusters are associated with academic outcomes. Using cluster analysis, we consistently identify a group of students who are relatively more patient, less time-inconsistent, more risk-tolerant, more prosocial, and more cooperative. This preference cluster is positively associated with higher scores on standardized math and reading tests. Comparing cluster-based specifications to models with individual preferences entered separately, we find little loss in explanatory power, while preference clusters provide a more compact and interpretable description of how preferences are jointly organized within students.

Working paper available here

Learning to Win by Fearing to Lose: Exploring the Positive Effects of Loss Aversion on Academic Achievement and Motivation in Education (With Barna Bakó and Éva Holb)

Young Economists Meet - Brno, 2024 May

XII. Phd Workshop of the Hungarian Society of Economics at the University of Pécs, 2024 April

International Conference on Empirical Economics at Pennsylvania State University-Altoona, 2024 July

1st Summer School of Behavioral and Experimental Economics, Crete, 2024 August

Clusters of Economic Preferences (with Dániel Horn and Hubert János Kiss)

Prague Conference on Behavioral Sciences 2023 October

Heterogeneity of Economic Expectations - Dissecting the Role of Socioeconomic Status (with Hubert János Kiss)

International Conference on Empirical Economics at Pennsylvania State University-Altoona, 2023 August

XI. Phd Workshop of the Hungarian Society of Economics at the University of Pécs, 2023 April

Identifying outliers in multivariate databases - distance and density-based methods in housing statistics

9th International Conference on Using R in Official Statistics, 2021 October

Applied Behavioral Economics from an Ethical Approach 

European Forum Alpbach 2020:

Bene, M., Ertl, A., Horváth, Á., Mónus, G., & Székely, J. (2023). A magyarországi lakóingatlan-állomány energiaigényének becslése. HITELINTÉZETI SZEMLE/FINANCIAL AND ECONOMIC REVIEW, 22(3), 123-151. 

Ertl, A. (2022). Méltányos és méltánytalan különbségek az egyéni döntéshozatalban. Közgazdasági Szemle, 69(10), 1170-1194. 

Ertl, A. (2022). A magyar lakbérstatisztika története - The history of Hungarian housing rent statistics. Statisztikai Szemle, 100(1), 68-91. 

Ertl, A., Horváth, Á., Mónus, G., Sáfián, F., & Székely, J. (2021). Az energetikai jellemzők és az ingatlanárak kapcsolata. Statisztikai Szemle, 99(10), 923-953.