Ongoing research

1.  When Trade Stops: Sourcing, Market Access, and Domestic Adjustment

How do economies adjust when an established trading relationship is abruptly disrupted? I study the 2019 Rwanda--Uganda border closure using universe of tax administrative records and pre-closure exposure to Ugandan trade. First, importers respond to the loss of Ugandan supply by shifting toward alternative suppliers, particularly Kenya and Tanzania, but this substitution is incomplete and total imports fall. Second, exporters show little evidence of replacing the lost Ugandan market with alternative destinations. Third, incumbent domestic sellers do not systematically expand in product markets where Ugandan supply contracts. For the firm, greater dependence on Ugandan imports is associated with an immediate decline in VAT-reported sales, although the decline does not persist on average over the full closure period. Labor adjustment is more persistent: more exposed firms reduce employment and their total wage bill, while average wages per remaining worker change little. The results suggest that adjustment to trade isolation occurs primarily through foreign supplier substitution and contraction within exposed firms, rather than rapid domestic replacement. Alternative foreign sourcing cushions the disruption, but does not fully offset the loss of an established trading relationship. Work in Progress!

2.   Origins of Large Firms: Evidence from Emerging and Developing Economies

3. Life Cycle of Firms and Access to Finance in Developing Countries

4. Managers and Allocation of Talent in the Public Sector