Ongoing research
1. When Trade Stops: Sourcing, Market Access, and Domestic Adjustment
How do economies respond when an established trading relationship is abruptly disrupted? I study the 2019 Rwanda--Uganda border closure using administrative trade and tax records and pre-closure exposure to Ugandan trade. Importers respond to the loss of Ugandan supply by shifting toward foreign suppliers, particularly Kenya and Tanzania, but this substitution is incomplete and total imports remain lower in more exposed product markets. In contrast, I find little evidence that exporters replace the lost Ugandan market or that incumbent domestic sellers expand in product markets where Ugandan supply contracts. The results reveal a sharp asymmetry across margins: foreign sourcing can be reorganized relatively quickly, while established export relationships are harder to replace and declining foreign supply does not translate into systematic expansion by incumbent domestic firms:Work in Progress!
2. The Price of Political Alignment: Evidence from Firm Audits in South Africa
How does political alignment with the ruling party influence firm audit outcomes? Using a regression discontinuity design that exploits close election races in South Africa in 2014, we compare firms in municipalities narrowly won versus narrowly lost by the African National Congress (ANC). Combining detailed audit data with corporate income tax returns, we find marked reductions in audit amounts, audit cases, and compliant taxpayers in ANC-aligned municipalities. Firms in aligned municipalities also report significantly lower corporate tax liabilities despite higher reported sales. These findings provide suggestive evidence that political alignment dampens tax enforcement and generates regulatory forbearance shaped by political incentives:Current draft!
3. Origins of Large Firms: Evidence from Emerging and Developing Economies
4. Life Cycle of Firms and Access to Finance in Developing Countries
5. Managers and Allocation of Talent in the Public Sector