Research
Research
Incentive Effects of Disability Benefits [Link]
with Sebastian Becker, Johannes Geyer, and Peter Haan - R&R at Journal of Labor Economics
We provide novel evidence on the trade-off between insurance and incentives when adjusting disability insurance (DI) benefit generosity using a comprehensive measure that encompasses not only the effect on take-up but also behavioral responses of DI recipients with respect to employment and exit from DI. Based on administrative data from the German pension insurance and exogenous policy variation, we identify the relevant behavioral margins induced by a change in benefit generosity. Using a theoretical framework, we show that our comprehensive measure of incentive effects implies a fiscal multiplier of 1.83. Incorporating elasticities with respect to exit from DI increases the fiscal multiplier compared to estimates that only account for take-up elasticities. In the context of the model, we estimate that increasing benefits is welfare improving, given the insurance effects of DI benefits estimated in previous literature.
Occupations, Disability Insurance, and Career Choices [Draft available upon request]
Work-limiting disabilities pose a substantial risk to the earnings potential and welfare of older workers. While coverage under public disability insurance (DI) systems is nearly universal, the risk of becoming dependent on DI varies across occupations. In this paper, I study the value of public DI across occupations using administrative social security records from Germany. I first examine how a long-term sick leave event (which typically precedes DI take-up) affects the employment trajectories of affected workers. Consistent with previous literature, I find a large decline in employment and earnings across occupation groups. Moreover, those who remain in the labor force are twice as likely to transition between occupations, highlighting health events as an important driver of job transitions among older workers. I then use a structural model to study the relationship between health, occupational choice, disability insurance, and retirement in a life-cycle framework. In counterfactual experiments, I evaluate how adjustments to the DI and retirement system affect labor supply and program take-up across different occupational groups.
Work in Progress
Financial Incentives of Disability Benefits and Early Retirement (with Peter Haan)
Spillover Effects of Pension Reform (with Niklas Döhler, Johannes Geyer, and Peter Haan)
Bach, S., Blesch, M., Gehlen, A., Geyer, J., Haan, P., Klotz, S., & Veltri, B. (2025). The Boomer Solidarity Surcharge: An Important Tool for Stabilizing Pensions Without Directly Burdening Younger Generations. DIW Weekly Report, 15(29), 167-176.[DE | EN]
Article in Spiegel Online | Interview Deutschlandfunk Kultur
Blesch, M., Gehlen, A., Geyer, J., Haan, P., Klotz, S. (2024). Abschaffung der Mütterrente würde Altersarmut erhöhen. DIW Wochenbericht, 91(31/32), 495-502. [DE]
Interview | Article in Süddeutsche Zeitung | Podcast Politikum WDR5
Gambaro, L., Gehlen, A., Spieß, C. K., Wrohlich, K., Ziege, E. (2024). Division of paid and care work between parents: Reality often differs greatly from the ideals. DIW Weekly Report, 14(29/30/31), 201-207. [DE | EN]
Becker, S., Gehlen, A., Geyer, J., & Haan, P. (2023). Reform of reduced earning capacity pension cuts risk of poverty, but comes late. DIW Weekly Report, 13(17/18), 123-129. [DE | EN]
Bonin, H., Steffes, S., Hillerich-Sigg, A., Krause-Pilatus, A., Rinne, U., Gehlen, A., ... & Teschner, M. (2021). Auswirkungen der Digitalisierung der Arbeitswelt auf die Erwerbstätigkeit von Frauen (No. 107). Institute of Labor Economics (IZA). (German) [DE]
Bonin, H., Krause-Pilatus, A., Rinne, U., Gehlen, A., & Molitor, P. (2020). Selbstständige Erwerbstätigkeit in Deutschland (Aktualisierung 2020) (No. 93). Institute of Labor Economics (IZA). (German) [DE]
gettsim - German Taxes and Transfers Simulator (Contributor)
dcegm - Python package for solving and simulating finite-horizon stochastic discrete-continuous dynamic choice models (Contributor)
respy - Open source framework written in Python for the simulation and estimation of some finite-horizon discrete choice dynamic programming models (former Maintainer)