Research
Research
Income Effects of Disability Benefits [Link]
with Sebastian Becker, Johannes Geyer, and Peter Haan - R&R at Journal of Labor Economics
We provide novel evidence about the incentive and welfare effects of an increase in the generosity of disability benefits. Importantly, a unique policy variation in Germany allows us to isolate the income effect of a change in benefit generosity. We leverage this quasi-experimental policy variation using a RD design to estimate the effect of increasing disability benefits on employment, earnings, labor market transitions, and mortality outcomes using administrative data on the universe of new disability benefit recipients. Contrary to previous literature, our analysis reveals no significant impact on the employment and earnings of DI recipients due to the increased benefits. However, we find a sizable effect of the probability of returning to the labor market. We find no effects on recipient mortality six years after benefit award, but estimates imply a notable reduction in poverty risk, highlighting meaningful welfare implications of increased generosity.
Occupations, Disability Insurance, and Career Choices [Draft available upon request]
Work-limiting disabilities pose a significant risk to the earnings potential and welfare of older workers. While coverage of public disability insurance (DI) systems is almost universal, the risk of becoming dependent on DI varies across occupations. In this paper, I study the value of public DI across different occupations using data from administrative social security records in Germany. I evaluate how public DI coverage affects long-run labor market outcomes by analyzing the employment effects of a large-scale policy reform that eliminated occupational DI coverage in Germany. I find that the reform increased earnings but reduced full-time employment, primarily through a decline in manual jobs. I then use a structural model to study the relationship between disability insurance, occupational choice, and retirement in a life-cycle context. In counterfactual experiments, I evaluate how adjustments to the DI and retirement system affect the labor supply of different occupational groups.
Bach, S., Blesch, M., Gehlen, A., Geyer, J., Haan, P., Klotz, S., & Veltri, B. (2025). The Boomer Solidarity Surcharge: An Important Tool for Stabilizing Pensions Without Directly Burdening Younger Generations. DIW Weekly Report, 15(29), 167-176.[DE | EN]
Blesch, M., Gehlen, A., Geyer, J., Haan, P., Klotz, S. (2024). Abschaffung der Mütterrente würde Altersarmut erhöhen. DIW Wochenbericht, 91(31/32), 495-502. [DE]
Interview | Article in Süddeutsche Zeitung
Gambaro, L., Gehlen, A., Spieß, C. K., Wrohlich, K., Ziege, E. (2024). Division of paid and care work between parents: Reality often differs greatly from the ideals. DIW Weekly Report, 14(29/30/31), 201-207. [DE | EN]
Becker, S., Gehlen, A., Geyer, J., & Haan, P. (2023). Reform of reduced earning capacity pension cuts risk of poverty, but comes late. DIW Weekly Report, 13(17/18), 123-129. [DE | EN]
Bonin, H., Steffes, S., Hillerich-Sigg, A., Krause-Pilatus, A., Rinne, U., Gehlen, A., ... & Teschner, M. (2021). Auswirkungen der Digitalisierung der Arbeitswelt auf die Erwerbstätigkeit von Frauen (No. 107). Institute of Labor Economics (IZA). (German) [DE]
Bonin, H., Krause-Pilatus, A., Rinne, U., Gehlen, A., & Molitor, P. (2020). Selbstständige Erwerbstätigkeit in Deutschland (Aktualisierung 2020) (No. 93). Institute of Labor Economics (IZA). (German) [DE]
gettsim - German Taxes and Transfers Simulator (Contributor)
dcegm - Python package for solving and simulating finite-horizon stochastic discrete-continuous dynamic choice models (Contributor)
respy - Open source framework written in Python for the simulation and estimation of some finite-horizon discrete choice dynamic programming models (former Maintainer)