Research Interests
Behavioral Macroeconomics, Household Finance, Behavioral Finance, Behavioral Economics, Network Economics.
My research interests include behavioral macroeconomics and behavioral household finance, as well as network economics. I employ primarily survey methodology to study the decision-making of economic agents at the micro level and its impact on the macroeconomy.
Work in Progress
When Wording Changes What We Find: The Impact of Inflation Expectations on Spending [revise & resubmit at Journal of Economic Psychology]
with Tiziana Assenza, Stefanie Huber and Tobias Schmidt
We use a randomized experiment in the Bundesbank Online Panel-Households (n ≈ 3,900) to show that the estimated link between inflation expectations and household consumption flips sign depending on survey wording. This finding reconciles prior contradictory results and has direct implications for central bank survey design. Our experiment systematically varies elicitation framing of consumption question along three dimensions: the reference unit (individual vs. household), the time horizon (past one, 3, or 12 months), and the question type (attitudinal, planned, qualitative and quantitative recall-based). We find that the time horizon and question type significantly influence the estimated relationship between inflation expectations and durable consumption. While the average effect is weak, its sign and magnitude vary strongly with question design. Planned spending and attitudinal questions, such as whether it is a good time to buy, produce very similar negative associations, suggesting that respondents interpret the former as a proxy for future intentions. In contrast, quantitative recall-based questions on past spending yield a modestly positive link, especially for shorter horizons. These results highlight the critical role of survey design in shaping behavioral measurements, offering a novel explanation for mixed findings in the literature and guidance for both research and policy.
Zero-Sum Beliefs and Decision-Making
Zero-sum beliefs– the perception that one party’s gain necessarily comes at the expense of another– play a crucial role in shaping attitudes and behaviors. Previous research has shown that these beliefs can be both general and domain-specific, influencing policy preferences and political views. However, no research has yet examined the effect of zero-sum beliefs on economic behavior. The present project aims to investigate the impact of zero-sum beliefs on decision-making through survey-based research. By measuring both general and domain-specific zero-sum beliefs alongside key economic behaviors– including investment decisions, wage negotiations, labor market engagement, and partnership choices– this study seeks to answer four core questions. First, how prevalent are zero-sum beliefs in different economic domains? Second, what mental models underlie zero-sum beliefs? Third, what are the sources of zero-sum beliefs, and what role does prior experience play? Fourth, to what extent do general and domain-specific zero-sum beliefs influence economic behavior? Zero-sum beliefs are widespread but vary across socio-demographic groups, making it essential to understand their impact on economic behavior. They may not only shape individual economic decisions but may also exacerbate existing economic inequalities.
Inflation Expectations and Durable Consumption: New Evidence during High- vs. Low-Inflation Periods
with Tiziana Assenza, Stefanie Huber and Tobias Schmidt
This paper examines the relationship between inflation expectations and consumer spending in low- and high-inflation environments. We find that the effect of short-term inflation expectations on planned spending is twice as large in a high-inflation environment compared to a low-inflation environment, even when controlling for expected income changes. However, inflation expectations do not significantly affect current spending, regardless of the inflation environment. We also investigate the role of individual uncertainty about future inflation and show that uncertainty determines intertemporal decision-making. The absolute marginal effect of individual uncertainty is smaller during high- compared to low-inflation periods. These results suggest that other channels, such as increased attention to inflation in high-inflation environments, affect the relation between inflation expectations and spending decisions.