Research Interests
Behavioral Macroeconomics, Household Finance, Behavioral Finance, Behavioral Economics, Network Economics.
My research interests include behavioral macroeconomics and behavioral household finance, as well as network economics. I employ primarily survey methodology to study the decision-making of economic agents at the micro level and its impact on the macroeconomy.
Work in Progress
When Wording Changes What We Find: The Impact of Inflation Expectations on Spending [revise & resubmit at Journal of Economic Psychology]
with Tiziana Assenza, Stefanie Huber and Tobias Schmidt. Deutsche Bundesbank Discussion Paper, 2026; ECONtribute Discussion Paper No. 437. Media Coverage: VoxEU Column.
We use an experiment in the Bundesbank Online Panel Households to show that the estimated link between inflation expectations and household consumption changes sign depending on survey wording. This finding reconciles prior contradictory results and has direct implications for central bank survey design. Our experiment systematically varies elicitation framing of consumption questions along three dimensions: the reference unit (individual vs. household), the time horizon (past one, 3, or 12 months), and the question type (attitudinal, planned, qualitative and quantitative recall-based). We find that mainly question type significantly influences the estimated relationship between inflation expectations and durable consumption. While the average association is weak, its sign and magnitude vary strongly with question design. Planned spending and attitudinal questions, such as whether it is a good time to buy, produce very similar negative associations, suggesting that respondents interpret the former as a proxy for future intentions. In contrast, quantitative recall-based questions on past spending yield a modestly positive link, especially for shorter horizons. These results highlight the critical role of survey design in shaping behavioral measurements, offering a novel explanation for mixed findings in the literature and guidance for both research and policy.
Zero-Sum Beliefs and Decision-Making
Zero-sum beliefs—the mental representation that one party’s gain necessarily comes at another’s expense—play a crucial role in shaping attitudes and behaviors. Previous research shows that these beliefs can be both general and domain-specific, influencing policy preferences, interpersonal judgments, and political views. This project examines how zero-sum thinking develops as a mental representation and how it affects household behavior, including stock-market participation and labor-market engagement. Using survey-based methods, the study measures both general and domain-specific zero-sum beliefs alongside key economic behaviors—such as investment decisions, wage negotiations, and labor-market participation—to address four core questions: How prevalent are zero-sum beliefs across different economic domains? What activates zero-sum thinking as a mental representation? What are the sources of zero-sum beliefs, and how does prior experience shape them? And to what extent do general and domain-specific zero-sum beliefs influence economic behavior? Zero-sum beliefs are widespread but vary systematically across socio-demographic groups, making it essential to understand their consequences for economic decision-making. They may not only guide individual choices but also contribute to the persistence and deepening of economic inequalities.
It Matters Who Shops: Inflation Expectations and Consumption
Studies of how inflation expectations relate to household consumption reach strikingly mixed conclusions. This paper argues that two features of the relationship help explain why: whose expectations shape household spending, and through which margin expectations operate. Using panel data from the Bundesbank Online Panel--Households, I match spending with inflation expectations reported in the preceding survey wave and separate a within effect, the response to temporary deviations from an individual's usual expectation, from a between effect, the difference between individuals with persistently higher or lower expectations. Both effects are concentrated among household members mainly responsible for everyday purchases and point in opposite directions: these primary decision-makers spend more when their expectations rise above their usual level, mainly on essential goods, but spend less when they persistently expect high inflation, mainly on major purchases. Suggestive evidence links this concentration to their greater exposure to prices. The responses are modest, however, which offers limited support for raising inflation expectations to stimulate aggregate consumption.