Research Interests
Behavioral Macroeconomics, Household Finance, Behavioral Finance, Behavioral Economics, Network Economics.
My research interests include behavioral macroeconomics and behavioral household finance, as well as network economics. I employ primarily survey methodology to study the decision-making of economic agents at the micro level and its impact on the macroeconomy.
Work in Progress
When Wording Changes What We Find: The Impact of Inflation Expectations on Spending [revise & resubmit at Journal of Economic Psychology]
with Tiziana Assenza, Stefanie Huber and Tobias Schmidt
We use a randomized experiment in the Bundesbank Online Panel-Households (n ≈ 3,900) to show that the estimated link between inflation expectations and household consumption flips sign depending on survey wording. This finding reconciles prior contradictory results and has direct implications for central bank survey design. Our experiment systematically varies elicitation framing of consumption question along three dimensions: the reference unit (individual vs. household), the time horizon (past one, 3, or 12 months), and the question type (attitudinal, planned, qualitative and quantitative recall-based). We find that the time horizon and question type significantly influence the estimated relationship between inflation expectations and durable consumption. While the average effect is weak, its sign and magnitude vary strongly with question design. Planned spending and attitudinal questions, such as whether it is a good time to buy, produce very similar negative associations, suggesting that respondents interpret the former as a proxy for future intentions. In contrast, quantitative recall-based questions on past spending yield a modestly positive link, especially for shorter horizons. These results highlight the critical role of survey design in shaping behavioral measurements, offering a novel explanation for mixed findings in the literature and guidance for both research and policy.
Zero-Sum Beliefs and Decision-Making
Zero-sum beliefs—the mental representation that one party’s gain necessarily comes at another’s expense—play a crucial role in shaping attitudes and behaviors. Previous research shows that these beliefs can be both general and domain-specific, influencing policy preferences, interpersonal judgments, and political views. This project examines how zero-sum thinking develops as a mental representation and how it affects household behavior, including stock-market participation and labor-market engagement. Using survey-based methods, the study measures both general and domain-specific zero-sum beliefs alongside key economic behaviors—such as investment decisions, wage negotiations, and labor-market participation—to address four core questions: How prevalent are zero-sum beliefs across different economic domains? What activates zero-sum thinking as a mental representation? What are the sources of zero-sum beliefs, and how does prior experience shape them? And to what extent do general and domain-specific zero-sum beliefs influence economic behavior? Zero-sum beliefs are widespread but vary systematically across socio-demographic groups, making it essential to understand their consequences for economic decision-making. They may not only guide individual choices but also contribute to the persistence and deepening of economic inequalities.
Inflation Expectations and Durable Consumption: New Evidence during High- vs. Low-Inflation Periods
with Tiziana Assenza, Stefanie Huber and Tobias Schmidt
This paper examines the relationship between inflation expectations and consumer spending in low- and high-inflation environments. We find that the effect of short-term inflation expectations on planned spending is twice as large in a high-inflation environment compared to a low-inflation environment, even when controlling for expected income changes. However, inflation expectations do not significantly affect current spending, regardless of the inflation environment. We also investigate the role of individual uncertainty about future inflation and show that uncertainty determines intertemporal decision-making. The absolute marginal effect of individual uncertainty is smaller during high- compared to low-inflation periods. These results suggest that other channels, such as increased attention to inflation in high-inflation environments, affect the relation between inflation expectations and spending decisions.