Research Projects

Working Papers

Firms' heterogeneous (and unintended) investment response to carbon price increases (2024), with L. Steininger (available upon request)

Abstract

We study the heterogeneous pass-through of carbon pricing on investment across firms. Using balance sheet data of 1.2 million European firms and identified carbon policy shocks, we find that higher carbon prices reduce investment, on average. However, less carbon-intensive firms and sectors reduce their investment relatively more compared to otherwise similar firms after a carbon price tightening shock. Following carbon price tightening, firms in demand-sensitive industries see a relative decrease not only in investment but also in sales, employment and cashflow. Moreover, we find no evidence that higher carbon prices incentivise carbon-intensive firms to produce less emission-intensively. Overall, our results are consistent with theories of the growth-hampering features of carbon price increases and suggest that carbon pricing policy operates as a demand shock.

Work in Progress

The Costs of Transitioning to a Green Economy (2023), with E. Lukmanova and K. Rabitsch

Distributional and macroeconomic implications of carbon taxation: Regional variation

in revenue recycling (2024) 

Publications

Trade in Times of Uncertainty (2023), with B. Meyer and H. Oberhofer, The World Economy

Abstract

This paper studies the direct and indirect trade volume and trade cost effects of uncertainty on international trade and economic welfare using a structural gravity framework for a panel of 97 developed and developing countries from 2000 to 2018. We find that the sign and magnitude of the effect depend on whether uncertainty originates from the importing or exporting country. Moreover, applying a cross-sectional gravity model, we show that an uncertainty shock directly reduces cross-border trade flows. The paper illustrates the suitability of the proposed modelling approach by means of two counterfactual scenario analyses in which we calculate the general equilibrium trade and welfare effects of uncertainty induced by the unexpected outcome of the Brexit referendum in 2016 and the outbreak of the COVID-19 pandemic in 2020.