Research

"The Composition of Applicants, Mismatch, and Matching Efficiency in the German VET Market" joint with Bernd Fitzenberger, Anna Heusler and Leonie Wicht
Labour Economics, 2025

Entries into firm-based vocational education and training (VET) stagnated in Germany during the 2010s and decreased by 11% between 2019 and 2020, which is likely to exacerbate future shortages of skilled workers. Against this backdrop, we study the VET market through the lens of a matching function estimated at the occupation by district level between 2013 and 2021. We employ a novel strategy to instrument for applicants and vacancies which draws on differences in local labor market conditions for different occupations. Our estimated matching elasticities for applicants and vacancies are 0.46 and 0.57, respectively. Matching efficiency shows a slight downward trend before Covid and a large drop during Covid. Using our estimates to decompose aggregate trends in matches, we find that while matching efficiency and applicants drove matches down before Covid, the increase in vacancies until 2019 stabilized the VET market. During Covid, the drop in applicants, vacancies, and matching efficiency contributed similarly to the sudden drop of matches. Furthermore, without the increase in migrants applying to VET positions, demographic change alone would have led to an even greater decline in matches already before Covid. Changes in occupational and regional mismatch did little in explaining the overall trend in matches.

"Contagion at Work: Occupations, Industries and Human Contact"  joint with Dongya Koh and Raül Santaeulàlia-Llopis
Journal of Public Economics, 2021

Abstract: Using nationally representative micro panel data on flu incidence from the Medical Expenditure Panel Survey in the United States, we show that employed individuals are on average 35.3% more likely to be infected with the flu virus. Our results are robust to individual characteristics including vaccinations, health insurance, and individual fixed effects. Within the employed, we find significant differences in flu incidence by occupation (e.g., sales occupations show 40.5% higher probability of infection than farmers) and by industry (e.g., education, health, and social services show 52.2% higher probability of infection than mining). Further, we show that the interaction between occupations and industries is important to understand contagion. Indeed, cross-industry differences in flu incidence cannot be fully explained by differences in the within-industry occupation structure. As a potential mechanism for contagion, we study how flu incidence varies with the extent of human contact interaction at work--with an occupation-industry-specific score that we construct based on O'NET occupational characteristics. We find that the higher the human contact at work, the greater are the odds of infection. Our results are larger in years of high aggregate flu incidence and robust to firm size, a number of jobs, and hours worked.

"The Unequal Battle Against Infertility: Theory and Evidence from IVF Success” joint with Fane Groes, Daniela Iorio and Raül Santaeulàlia-Llopis
Submitted

Using Danish administrative data, we show that IVF success is associated with maternal education: College-educated women have a 9% higher live birth chance than high school-educated women and 25% higher than dropouts. We exclude infertility causes, health behaviors, occupations, clinics, finances, and partner attributes as drivers. Instead, we focus on latent factors like ability and psychological traits. First, we show how proxies for these factors like Grade Point Average (GPA) shape IVF success. Second, we build a structural dynamic model of post-IVF-failure dropout where women differ in latent ability and psychological costs. Our model counterfactuals imply that ability explains 87% of the education gradient in IVF success, prompting a policy discussion.

"Unemployment Insurance and Occupational Switching" joint with Andrii Parkhomenko

In this paper, we study the relationship between unemployment benefits and occupational switching. Do unemployment benefits only provide income support for workers during their unemployment spells, or do they also affect post-unemployment outcomes? Using two US data sets, the SIPP and the NLSY79, we document three novel facts on the relationship between unemployment benefits and occupational switching. First, unemployed individuals who are eligible for higher unemployment benefits are less likely to switch occupations. Second, conditional on switching, having higher unemployment benefits correlates positively with the cognitive skills requirements of the new occupation. Finally, while the first fact is stronger for workers with longer occupational tenure, the second fact is stronger for workers with shorter occupational tenure. We then build a search model with heterogeneous individuals and jobs to study how unemployment benefits affect skill requirements and wages for workers who experience employment-unemployment-employment transitions. The model features on-the-job search, skill accumulation and depreciation, and skills mismatch (the gap between a worker's skill and the skill requirements of his occupation). The model is able to produce the relationships observed in the data.  We then use the model economy to study the effects of linking unemployment benefits to labor market experience.

"Tracking Actual Covid-19 Diffusion in a Population: Evidence from High Frequency Administrative Data”  joint with Marta García Rodríguez, Fane Groes and Raül Santaeulàlia-Llopis

"Working from Home  and Occupational Choice ”  joint with Christian  Kagerl

"Firms' Role in Sick-Leave Take-Up" joint with Jose Garcia-Louzao

”Gender Pay-Gap (Unterschiede in den Jahresverdiensten zwischen Männern und Frauen: Der Gender Pay Gap wurde in der Coronakrise kleiner - außer bei niedrigen Verdiensten.)” with Bernd Fitzenberger and Alexander Patt, IAB Policy report (Kurzbericht), January 2024

"Vacancies, applicants and newly signed contracts: Matching problems in the Vocational Education and Training market are further increasing during the Covid crisis” joint with Bernd Fitzenberger, Anna Heusler and Leonie Wicht, IAB Policy report (Kurzbericht), October 2022