The Columbian Exchange and Conflict in Asia
with Mark Dincecco & James Fenske
Invited to revise and resubmit
Abstract: We study the impact of a permanent positive productivity shock -- the introduction of New World crops -- on violent conflict in Asia. Using difference in differences and event study frameworks, we document a robust positive relationship between gains in caloric suitability due to the Columbian Exchange and greater conflict. We argue that a rapacity effect -- an increase in the potential prize from resource appropriation to political actors -- is the mechanism that best explains this result. We show that conflict was more likely in areas that became more populated and urbanized following gains in caloric suitability, and that areas that experienced gains in caloric suitability were more likely to be conquered by Britain. Our findings shed new light on the Great Divergence in historical socioeconomic outcomes between Europe and Asia.
A Comparison of Survey Modes in Challenging Contexts
with Allen Hicken, Tom Pepinsky, & Burhanuddin Muhtadi
Invited to revise and resubmit
Abstract: As survey research becomes common around the world, scholars face increasing pressures to collect novel survey data in challenging contexts. However, most research on how the mode of implementing public opinion surveys affects the conclusions drawn from them has been conducted in North America and Western Europe. We report results from four pre-registered surveys (face-to-face, random digit dialing, and two online surveys) conducted in Indonesia, a large and diverse country that embodies many of the challenges and opportunities inherent in conducting surveys outside of high-income democracies. As in many such countries, researchers face a range of bureaucratic, ethical, financial, and practical challenges connected with survey research in Indonesia. Focusing on commonly-used questions in contemporary political science, we find that the same survey instrument will yield meaningfully different substantive conclusions depending on the mode through which it was administered. Our results have substantial implications for current research practice.
Abstract: We study the relationship between exposure to historical conflict involving heavy weaponry and male-favoring gender norms. We argue that the physical nature of such conflict produced cultural norms favoring males and male offspring. We fo- cus on spatial variation in gender norms across India, a dynamic developing econ- omy in which gender inequality persists. We show robust evidence that areas with high exposure to pre-colonial conflict are significantly more likely to exhibit male- favoring gender norms as measured by male-biased sex ratios and crimes against women. We document how conflict-related gender norms have been transmitted over time via male-favoring folkloric traditions, the gender identity of temple gods, and male-biased marriage practices, and have been transmitted across space by mi- grants originally from areas with high conflict exposure.
Green Nationalism, Gray Nationalism: Support for Green Industrial Policy in the US
with Iain Osgood & Nicole Wu
Abstract: Industrial policies target domestic economic and non-economic objectives but also have strong international redistributive effects. The interactions between these outcomes are nowhere greater than in green industrial policy, where politically contended climate change goals sit alongside strategic competition to develop green industries. What role does international competition play in public support for green industrial policy and could that competitive dynamic promote, or hinder, a green transition? We examine the solar panel and electric vehicle industries in the US and find that nationalist appeals can grow support for “green” subsidies as well as for “gray” protective tariffs. These effects are particularly notable among non-green voters and Republicans (in the case of subsidies) and green voters and Democrats (for tariffs). Appeals to nationalism hold both promise and danger for advocates of climate change action.
Can Informational or Moral Appeals Combat Authoritarian Nostalgia? Evidence from eight nationally representative surveys in the Philippines
with Dean Dulay, Allen Hicken, & Ronald D. Holmes)
Abstract: Authoritarian nostalgia—a favorable view of the authoritarian past—is posited as a driver of democratic backsliding. Using six rounds of nationally representative, face-to-face surveys in the Philippines, we document a robust relationship between authoritarian nostalgia and support for the “authoritarian-aligned” candidate in the months leading up to the 2022 Presidential elections. Misinformation is often stated as a reason behind why such authoritarian nostalgia is so prevalent. Could correcting misconceptions about the past weaken authoritarian nostalgia and consequently weaken the forces of democratic backsliding? To answer this question, we fielded two survey experiments. One study corrected misinformation on the economic conditions under authoritarianism, the other informed respondents of the dishonesty of the “authoritarian-aligned” politician. Neither intervention shifted voter perceptions of the authoritarian past or their trust in the “authoritarian-aligned” politician, suggesting that authoritarian nostalgia is not easily corrected or manipulable.
Abstract: Coming soon!
The externalities of missionary activity: Tracing the Pre-independence Origins of Kerala's Comparative Literacy Advantage
with Alexander Persaud
Abstract: coming soon!
Abstract: coming soon!
Health and Populism: A longitudinal study of individual health and support for populism over three decades (with Nolan M. Kavanagh)
Abstract: coming soon!
Bringing Back the Good Old Days: The effect of evoking the past on political attitudes
Abstract: coming soon!
Protectors or Pariahs: Why voters reward or punish past violence
Abstract: coming soon!
The Impact of Voting Rules on Mass Public Information and Voting Behavior
Abstract: coming soon!
Busting African immigrant entrepreneur myths? Forced migration, culture, and the geography of self-employment among migrants from the Horn of Africa in US cities and beyond
with Daniel Thompson
Abstract: Coming soon!
Abstract: Coming soon!
The Messenger is the Message: Public Receptivity to Diaspora Criticism in Israel
with Yehonatan Abramson