Abstract

Does democracy curb domestic political violence? To study this, we focus on the United Kingdom’s Representation of the People Act of 1867 - which is a critical juncture in the history of democratisation. Constructing a novel borough (‘urban centre’) level dataset on social conflict events and economic performance around the 1868 elections (the first elections where newly enfranchised citizens could vote), we exploit arguably exogenous variation in enfranchisement intensity. We find a strong and robust peace-promoting effect of franchise extension and identify as a major channel of transmission the increase of the population’s political influence (voice) and local economic growth. 

Abstract

We study the evolution of housing rents in the proximity of asylum seeker hosting centers whose populations differ by ethnic composition. Rental prices within 0.7km of an active center are found on average to be 3.8% lower than in the control group. The price response is significantly more pronounced when centers host a higher share of asylum seekers from Sub-Saharan Africa. In contrast, neither religious affiliation nor inferred crime propensity of the center populations are found to affect local rental prices significantly. Our findings are consistent with phenotype-based racial animus as a significant driver of observed market outcomes.

Abstract

This paper examines how water resources mediate the relationship between climate shocks and violence. Combining high-resolution data on temperature, hydrology, and conflict events across Africa from 1997 to 2023, we show that high-temperature shocks increase conflict in nearby water-rich areas. The results are driven by shocks originating in downstream locations, consistent with groups seeking to secure access to upstream water sources that confer greater control over river flow. The effect is stronger for persistent temperature shocks and in regions experiencing long-run decline in water availability. These findings highlight a mechanism through which climate change may increase conflict risk, as rising temperatures and shifts in the distribution of surface water intensify competition over water resources.