Working Papers

ABSTRACT: The current availability of longer series of input-output tables, as well as the release of global input-output databases, has fostered a growing literature analyzing changes in the economic structure and their drivers. In order to take advantage of these time-series, the Temporal Leontief Inverse (TLI) approaches structural change in a dynamic fashion by extracting the cumulative contribution of each period to the total changes in interindustrial linkages under general equilibrium, i.e., by tracing the evolution of the fields of influence in the Leontief Inverse. In this paper, we modify this original formulation and devise a linear decomposition of the annual change. Our methodology splits the matrix of fields of influence changes into several partitions that isolate the effect of different drivers under ceteris paribus conditions. Hence, it allows assessing the evolution of the determinants of economic (environmental, energy, etc.) spillovers for a particular industry. For example, in a single region setting, we can isolate the contribution of changes in direct input requirements by sectors or group of sectors. In a multiregional setting, we can study the contribution of trade and evolution of global production chains to an industry’s multiplier. The methodology is illustrated by uncovering certain hidden effects not captured in a previous application of the original TLI. Finally, we propose a quasi-dynamic structural decomposition analysis via the modified TLI, which introduces changes in composition and level of final demand in the framework.

KEYWORDS: Temporal Inverse, Structural Decomposition Analysis, Input-Output, Time Series

ABSTRACT: Energy planning is a multidimensional problem as it affects the economy, environment and local population in a spatially heterogeneous fashion. In this paper, we propose an integrated social-environmental economic model for energy planning analysis that estimates economic, emissions and public health impacts at different regional levels. By combining the traditional I-O framework with electrical and dispersion models, dose-response functions and GIS data, our model aims at expanding policy makers’ scope of analysis and providing an auxiliary tool to assess energy planning scenarios in Brazil both dynamically and spatially. A case study for wind power plants in Brazil was performed and the results highlight the unbalance between economic benefits and negative health effects across the wealthiest and poorest regions in the country.

KEYWORDS: Energy Planning, Input-Output Analysis, Regional Economics