Research

Working Papers

Beasts of Burden, Trade, and Hierarchy: The Long Shadow of Domestication, BGPE Discussion Paper No. 224

This paper studies how the prehistoric geographic distribution of domesticable transport animal species has contributed to shaping differences in development. I identify the historic ranges of the ten animal species that are (1) suitable for domestication and (2) suitable for carrying loads. Based on these ranges, I create a measure of the prehistoric presence of domesticable transport animals around the world. The empirical analysis reveals a strong relationship between the historic presence of domesticable transport animals and the emergence of ancient long-distance trade routes and early forms of hierarchy. Historical access to domesticable transport animals also continued to matter in the long run: Pre-industrial ethnic groups living in regions historically home to domesticable transport animals were more involved in trade and had built more complex hierarchical structures. Moreover, these groups developed greater numerical skills, larger levels of labor specialization, and higher levels of class stratification, thus underscoring the broad cultural and developmental impacts exerted by historical access to domesticable transport animals.

The Fall of Constantinople and the Rise of the West, BGPE Discussion Paper No. 223

The Renaissance era in Western Europe was marked by a flourishing of economic and cultural life that gave rise to numerous discoveries and inventions. This paper studies the role played by Greek migrants in this process. Using a newly constructed dataset on Greek migrants in Europe after the fall of Constantinople in 1453, I show that a Greek presence in the second half of the fifteenth century increased city growth in the sixteenth century. In terms of mechanisms, I find that a Greek presence increased the available knowledge stock in astronomy, mathematics, and medicine -- fields in which ancient Greek and Byzantine scholars were especially advanced. Finally, I document an increase in upper-tail human capital and inventions in these cities. My findings thus show the important role played by Greek migrants in disseminating scientific knowledge and the positive impact that Greek knowledge exerted on city growth in the early modern period.

Language, Knowledge, and Growth: Evidence from Early Modern Europe (with Christine Binzel and Rajesh Ramachandran), CEPR Discussion Paper 15454

This paper documents a language change in printing from Latin to the vernaculars, the spoken tongues, in the immediate aftermath of the Protestant Reformation of 1517. As a result, the share of vernacular titles in Europe rose from around 30% in 1500 to almost 60% in 1600. With the increased use of the vernaculars in printing, the availability of knowledge and ideas increased at the city level and became more diverse in terms of authors and themes. Finally, we study long-run consequences. Using linguistic differences across cities as a source of exogenous variation in the number of vernacular titles printed in cities, we document a positive effect of vernacular printing output on upper-tail human capital and city growth. This suggests that the turn to the vernaculars in printing was an important driver of European dynamism in the early modern period.

[Supplementary Material] [Media: VOX] Previously circulating under the title "Vernacularization, Knowledge Creation, and Growth: Evidence from the Protestant Reformation".

The Protestant Reformation and Language Choice in the Holy Roman Empire (with Christine Binzel and Rajesh Ramachandran), CEPR Discussion Paper 17818

A distinct feature of the Protestant Reformation was Martin Luther’s intentional use of the vernacular (German), rather than Latin, in his writings in order to engage the laity in theological discussions. This paper studies the impact of the Protestant Reformation on the use of the vernacular in the Holy Roman Empire. We show that immediately after 1517, there was a sharp rise in religious vernacular printing output, especially in Protestant but also in Catholic printing cities. Moreover, and importantly, we find similar patterns for printed texts outside the religious realm. In turn, within decades after the Reformation vernacular works became widely available throughout the Holy Roman Empire. Exploiting variation within Catholic and within Protestant printing cities, we provide evidence on the underlying mechanism. We document that the Reformation, by increasing religious competition, reduced the Catholic Church’s influence on language use in printing, and that it contributed to the standardization of the German language. We then turn to language change in education and show that the Reformation led to a significant increase in German schools in Protestant printing cities relative to Catholic ones. All in all, our results suggest that the Reformation played a decisive role in promoting the use of the vernacular in two important domains – printing and education – in the Holy Roman Empire.

Historical Roots of Vaccine Hesitancy: The Persistent Effect of the Naturopathic Movement in Germany (with Christine Binzel), CEPR Discussion Paper 18109

This paper studies the historical roots of vaccine hesitancy in the context of Germany. Using digitized data on the existence of naturopathic associations in Germany in the year 1900, we first show that counties with a large number of naturopathic associations in 1900 were disproportionally located in parts of East Germany. Furthermore, counties with a higher number of naturopathic associations in 1900 have significantly lower COVID-19 vaccination rates today. Our IV estimates suggest that the long-term effects of the naturopathic movement can explain about half of the East--West gap in COVID-19 vaccination rates.

Can International Initiatives Promote Peace? Diamond Certification and Armed Conflicts in Africa (with Christine Binzel and Dietmar Fehr), CEPR Discussion Paper 18450

The Kimberley Process Certification Scheme (KPCS) aims to prevent so-called conflict diamonds -- diamonds that come from conflict zones -- from entering world markets. The scheme works by tracking diamonds and by limiting trade among KPCS members to certified diamonds. This paper studies the scheme's impact on armed conflict in Africa. We exploit grid-cell level variation in the propensity to extract alluvial diamonds, and compare grid cells with and without this propensity before and after the introduction of the KPCS in 2002. Our results show that the KPCS led to a permanent and significant reduction in armed conflict.

Work in Progress

The Economic Legacy of Alexander the Great

This paper documents the positive effects of Alexander the Great's military campaign in the Middle East and Western Asia (334--324 BC) on economic long-run development. Grid cells near the campaign's path are wealthier today compared to other grid cells in the region. Moreover, grid cells including cities founded by Alexander and his successors are also wealthier today. Historical evidence suggests that they often set up these cities explicitly to foster long-distance trade. I show that the locations of these cities are not systematically different compared to the locations of pre-existing cities, except for their potential for long-distance trade. I then show that the (later emerging) Silk Road is more likely to move through grid cells including Hellenic cities, while there is no such effect for pre-existing cities. Overall, these results document the great relevance of Alexander's campaign for long-run development by re-setting the urban network in the region and facilitating long-distance trade between Europe and Asia.

The Geological Origins of Comparative Development (with Thilo Huning and Fabian Wahl)

This paper studies the role of geology in the origins of comparative economic development. We show that areas subject to a specific process in geology, orogenesis, were more likely to include settlements after the Neolithic Revolution. We propose three mechanisms that explain the emergence of early settlements in these layers. First, orogenic zones had superior access to groundwater and mineral-rich soil conditions, which resulted in better growing conditions for specific higly nutrient crops. Second, clay, an early building material, was readily available. Third, orogenic zones were rich in metals. Our results indicate that a set of geographic factors linked to early settlements goes back to the same geological variation.

Ethnic Inequality and Economic Growth: Evidence from Harmonized Satellite Data (with Klaus Gründler)

We provide evidence that income inequality across ethnicities reduces economic growth. This result is obtained based on a novel and comprehensive dataset of harmonized Gini indices on ethnic inequality for countries and sub-national units between 1992 and 2013. Our approach exploits differentials in nighttime lights (NTL) across ethnic homelands, using new techniques to harmonize NTL series across geographic regions and years to address concerns about spatial and temporal incomparability of satellite photographs. Our measures show that ethnic inequality is widespread across countries and has decreased over time. Our identification strategy exploits the artificialty of sub-national borders to construct instrumental variables for ethnic inequality. The negative effect of ethnic inequality is caused by increasing conflict and decreasing public goods provision.