Research

We show that lower monetary policy rates lengthen the maturity structure of corporate debt. A 1 standard deviation policy rate cut raises the share of long-term debt — i.e., with maturity above 1 year — by 87 basis points, explaining 20% of its variation. In the cross-section, large and bond-issuing firms drive the adjustment. We propose a theory rationalizing these findings. Lower policy rates increase long-term bond demand due to reach-for-yield. Financial frictions allow large firms only to benefit by refinancing at lower yield. Empirical evidence on corporate bond issuance and holdings by insurers and mutual funds supports this mechanism.

Media Coverage: World Bank's All About Finance Blog; Thorsten Beck's Blog

We show that inflation affects stock returns through a long-term leverage channel. Using a high frequency identification strategy, we analyze stock returns in response to inflation surprises for nonfinancial firms in the U.S. and the Euro Area from 2020 to 2022. We rely both on survey-based and market-based measures of inflation surprises. We find that firms with higher leverage experience larger stock returns following positive inflation surprises, and this is driven by long-term debt. The effect is stronger in countries with inefficient corporate debt resolution. Our findings align with a Fisherian mechanism, where inflation reduces the real value of long-term debt. 

We show that sustainable investment by mutual funds influences non-financial firms' stock prices and real outcomes. Our identification exploits the EU Sustainable Finance Disclosure Regulation (SFDR) -- requiring mutual funds to disclose no, mild, or strong commitment to sustainable investment -- and rich microdata. Funds disclosing a mild commitment reduce exposure to high ESG risk (“brown”) stocks, relatively to those with no commitment. Differently, strongly committed funds do not adjust, being already perceived as sustainable and facing little incentive to further signal their ESG strategy. The divestment of brown firms occurs independently of their prior sustainability pledges and reduces their stock prices. This reduction is in turn associated with lower environmental spending and higher carbon emissions. Our findings suggest that blanket divestment by ESG funds may unintentionally worsen environmental performance by weakening firms’ incentives to invest in sustainability.