This paper studies the transmission of monetary policy shocks to U.S. Treasury debt markets through the lens of sovereign debt auctions. Using auction-level data from the U.S. Treasury, we examine how monetary policy shocks affect issuance across the maturity spectrum. We find that unexpected monetary policy tightening shortens the average maturity of newly issued debt. Specifically, following a contractionary monetary policy shock, the Treasury increases issuance of short-term securities (Treasury bills) while reducing issuance of medium- and long-term securities (Treasury notes). This reallocation is consistent with an increase in the liquidity premium on short-term government debt following monetary tightening, which lowers the Treasury’s borrowing cost at short maturities relative to longer maturities. Because new issuance primarily reflects the rollover of maturing debt, these results suggest that the Treasury adjusts the maturity composition of its refinancing in a manner consistent with its debt management objective of minimizing financing costs. IN PROGRESS

This paper investigates the asymmetric effects of expansionary and contractionary fiscal shocks in the U.S. economy using a state-of-the-art non-linear local projection framework. To identify fiscal shocks, I use a proxy based on revisions to the mean forecast of government spending growth from the Survey of Professional Forecasters, which represent unexpected changes in expectations about government spending. The estimated fiscal multipliers are larger following positive fiscal shocks than following negative ones, indicating asymmetric effects of fiscal policy interventions. 

Economics Letters, Volume 267, August 2026, 113093