Publication
Foresee the Unseen: Evaluating the Impact of Artificial Intelligence on International Trade [Paper]
Journal of Policy Modeling, 2025
with Adam Jakubik & Lorenzo Rotunno
This paper studies how advances in Artificial Intelligence reshape comparative advantage and trade patterns. We model an AI-induced productivity shock in global production and find that AI exposure significantly boosts export performance, especially among advanced economies.
Working Papers
Government Procurement, Production Networks, and Trade Spillovers  [Paper]
This paper studies how U.S. federal defense procurement affects international trade and how these effects propagate through domestic production networks. Using industry-level procurement, trade, and input-output data, I document distinct direct, upstream, and downstream responses, showing how domestic procurement shocks generate international spillovers through production linkages.
From Arrival to Sales: The Effect of Immigration on Sales Tax Revenue in the U.S. [Paper]
This paper examines how immigration affects state sales tax revenue using historical settlement patterns as an instrument. Finding no significant effect, the results suggest fiscal neutrality, providing evidence against claims that immigration burdens state budgets through this revenue channel.
Decoding Sanitary & Phytosanitary Measures: A Transparency-Based Approach [Paper]
with Murali Kallummal & Hari Maya Gurung
We examine how non-tariff measures, particularly SPS regulations, shape agricultural trade between developed and developing countries. Using WTO notification data, we find that most SPS measures originate in high-income economies, contributing to asymmetric market access.
Work in Progress
Transmission of U.S. Monetary Policy Shocks through the Global Production Network
with Lawrence Christiano, Husnu Dalgic, Marcin Kolasa & Ruy Lama
We study how U.S. monetary policy shocks propagate internationally through global supply chains, combining theoretical modeling with network-based empirical estimation.
Technical Report
Trade and Inclusiveness: How to Make Trade Work for All [Report]
World Trade Organization, World Trade Report 2024
Contributed to analysis on how trade and domestic policies can jointly promote inclusive growth, emphasizing diversification, digitalization, and the low-carbon transition as levers for more equitable globalization.