Publication
Foresee the Unseen: Evaluating the Impact of Artificial Intelligence on International Trade [Paper]
Journal of Policy Modeling, 2025
with Adam Jakubik & Lorenzo Rotunno
This paper studies how advances in Artificial Intelligence reshape comparative advantage and trade patterns. We model an AI-induced productivity shock in global production and find that AI exposure significantly boosts export performance, especially among advanced economies.
Working Papers
How Government Procurement affects Trade: Evidence from the U.S. [Job Market Paper]
Using granular U.S. defense contract data from 2000–2024, I show that defense spending increases industry-level imports by roughly 29% of initial spending within two years, while export responses are muted. The effects are strongest in globally integrated, defense-intensive industries, operating through upstream supply-chain linkages. These findings reveal that domestic fiscal policy can generate sizable international leakage through production networks.
From Arrival to Sales: The Effect of Immigration on Sales Tax Revenue in the U.S. [Slides]
This paper estimates how immigration affects state-level sales tax revenue using a Bartik-style shift-share instrument. Preliminary results suggest no statistically significant aggregate effect, though heterogeneity across states may be important.
Decoding Sanitary & Phytosanitary Measures: A Transparency-Based Approach [Paper]
with Murali Kallummal & Hari Maya Gurung
We examine how non-tariff measures, particularly SPS regulations, shape agricultural trade between developed and developing countries. Using WTO notification data, we find that most SPS measures originate in high-income economies, contributing to asymmetric market access.
Work in Progress
Transmission of U.S. Monetary Policy Shocks through the Global Production Network
with Lawrence Christiano, Husnu Dalgic, Marcin Kolasa & Ruy Lama
We study how U.S. monetary policy shocks propagate internationally through global supply chains, combining theoretical modeling with network-based empirical estimation.
Technical Report
Trade and Inclusiveness: How to Make Trade Work for All [Report]
World Trade Organization, World Trade Report 2024
Contributed to analysis on how trade and domestic policies can jointly promote inclusive growth, emphasizing diversification, digitalization, and the low-carbon transition as levers for more equitable globalization.