Publication
Foresee the Unseen: Evaluating the Impact of Artificial Intelligence on International Trade [Paper]
Journal of Policy Modeling, 2025
with Adam Jakubik & Lorenzo Rotunno
This paper studies how advances in Artificial Intelligence reshape comparative advantage and trade patterns. We model an AI-induced productivity shock in global production and find that AI exposure significantly boosts export performance, especially among advanced economies.
Working Papers
How Government Procurement affects Trade: Evidence from the U.S. [Job Market Paper]
Using granular U.S. defense contract data from 2000–2024, I show that defense spending increases industry-level imports by roughly 29% of initial spending within two years, while export responses are muted. The effects are strongest in globally integrated, defense-intensive industries, and also spill over through domestic supply-chain linkages. These findings reveal that domestic fiscal policy can generate sizable international leakage through production networks.
From Arrival to Sales: The Effect of Immigration on Sales Tax Revenue in the U.S. [Paper]
This paper examines how immigration affects state sales tax revenue using historical settlement patterns as an instrument. Finding no significant effect, the results suggest fiscal neutrality, providing evidence against claims that immigration burdens state budgets through this revenue channel.
Decoding Sanitary & Phytosanitary Measures: A Transparency-Based Approach [Paper]
with Murali Kallummal & Hari Maya Gurung
We examine how non-tariff measures, particularly SPS regulations, shape agricultural trade between developed and developing countries. Using WTO notification data, we find that most SPS measures originate in high-income economies, contributing to asymmetric market access.
Work in Progress
Transmission of U.S. Monetary Policy Shocks through the Global Production Network
with Lawrence Christiano, Husnu Dalgic, Marcin Kolasa & Ruy Lama
We study how U.S. monetary policy shocks propagate internationally through global supply chains, combining theoretical modeling with network-based empirical estimation.
Technical Report
Trade and Inclusiveness: How to Make Trade Work for All [Report]
World Trade Organization, World Trade Report 2024
Contributed to analysis on how trade and domestic policies can jointly promote inclusive growth, emphasizing diversification, digitalization, and the low-carbon transition as levers for more equitable globalization.