Research

Peer reviewed publications

COVID-19 and Short-Run Worker Performance: Evidence from European Football. European Journal of Operational Research (2023) with David Butler, Robert Butler and Robert Simmons. Link

Abstract: COVID-19 infections represent a recurrent source of workplace absenteeism impacting labour productivity. Using a unique matched employee-employer dataset, we consider the effects of the virus on the performance of highly valuable employees when returning to work: professional footballers in the top five European leagues. This offers a window to study job scheduling and managerial decision-making. We employ a difference-in-differences (DiD) model that compares the performance of infected players to a matched control group for game tasks that require physical exertion. Results suggest that per-minute performance is unaffected upon returning to play. This is likely due to effective management of minutes on the pitch. We carry out a battery of checks on the primary results to consider causal mechanisms outside of infection that could impact the results such as lockdown breaks, clusters within squads, and scheduling effects. The findings carry an optimistic message and specifically speak to managers supervising physical labour. If appropriately managed, infected workers can return to past performance levels. 

Special Ones? The Effect of Head Coaches on Football Team Performance. Scottish Journal of Political Economy (2023) with Alex Bryson, Babatunde Buraimo and Robert Simmons. Link

Abstract: One expects those who lead organisations to affect their performance. If not why would organisations spend so much time and money appointing and incentivising their leaders? Yet there is little evidence establishing a causal link between leaders and organisational performance. Using game-by-game linked employer-employee data for professional football in four countries over fifteen seasons we compare the performance of teams after they have sacked their Head Coach with spells where the Head Coach remains in post. We undertake a similar exercise comparing performance after a Head Coach quits with that of teams where the Head Coach remains in post. We deal with the endogeneity of Coach departures using entropy balancing to reweight teams' performance prior to the departure of a Coach so that trends in team performance prior to the departure match spells which ended with a Coach remaining in post. Consistent with theory, Head Coach quits have little or no impact on team performance whereas teams who fire their Head Coach experience small but statistically significant improvements in team performance, although this positive impact is confined to circumstances in which a team holds onto the new Coach having sacked the previous Coach. Our results lend support to the proposition that teams can benefit from Head Coach turnover, firing them when it is optimal to do so, and replacing a Head Coach during the offseason. 

'False Start? An analysis of NFL penalties with and without crowds'. Journal of Sports Economics (2023). Link

Abstract: The lack of crowds at sports fixtures as a result of COVID-19 restrictions has allowed researchers a unique opportunity to examine the widely accepted convention of home advantage. This work takes a slightly different approach, by examining within game outcomes. Specifically using play-by-play data from the NFL, this paper asks whether the lack of crowds aided a Quarterback’s ability to manipulate opposition defenses. Results suggest this was the case, though effects are not uniform by home and away team. 

The Determinants of black quarterback pay in the National Football League. Managerial and Decision Economics (2022) with David Berri and Robert Simmons. Link

Abstract: This paper seeks to econometrically determine differences in salary returns to attributes of quarterbacks in the National Football League (NFL), by race. We analyse salary determination of 215 white and black quarterbacks over 2006 through 2020 with separate equations estimated for each group. Our analysis indicates that top draft pick evaluations persist into future pay setting for each group. However, there is a faster rate of decay of early draft round salary premium for black quarterbacks. This is found to be robust across different estimations. This result is indicative of a 'halo-effect' in favour of white quarterbacks.

Time to go? Head coach quits and dismissals in professional football. De Economist (2021) with Alex Bryson, Babatunde Buraimo and Robert Simmons. Link

Abstract: Using rich data on Head Coach characteristics we identify determinants of quits and dismissals across four professional football leagues over the period 2002–2015. We find that Head Coaches’ probabilities of dismissal are significantly lower when the team is performing above expectations, with the effect strongest for recent games. However, in contrast to earlier studies, we find that performing above expectations also reduces the probability of Head Coach quits. Head Coach success in the past, as well as Head Coach experience, reduce the probability of being dismissed, even when conditioning on team performance, suggesting Head Coach human capital has some ‘protective’ effect in managerial careers. Past experience has little effect on quit probabilities—with the exception of tenure at the current employer, which is associated with lower quit rates. We test the robustness of our results by confining estimates to first exits, within-season departures and by dealing with unobserved Head Coach heterogeneity.

Working papers and papers under review

Assessing the Role of Fatigue and Task Switching on Worker Performance: Evidence from MLB Pitchers. R&R at Oxford Economics Papers, with David Berri, Brian Mills, Vincent O'Sullivan and Robert Simmons

Is there a nationality wage premium in European football? R&R at Sports Economics Review, with David Berri, David Butler, Giambattista Rossi and Robert Simmons 

Race and Coaching Hierarchy: The Promotion of Assistant Coaches in the NFL. Full draft ready, with David Berri, Vincent O'Sullivan and Robert Simmons

Work in progress 

Do sports analytics affect player pay? Insights from new contract data. Full draft ready, with David Butler and Robert Simmons 

Outcome Uncertainty in Women's Football Leagues. Data analysis stage, with Babatunde Buraimo and Robert Simmons