Bao, A., Boungou, W., & Lamagnere, T. (2026). Natural disasters and international financial flows: Global evidence. Review of World Economics, forthcoming. (Link) 

Abstract: This article investigates the impact of natural disasters on international financial flows. Specifically, we examine the impact of the number of individuals affected by natural disasters on capital flows, and their decomposition into equity-based and debt-based flows. Using data including more than 140 countries over the period 1990 to 2021, we infer that the intensity of natural disasters induces fewer capital flows to affected countries. This reduction in capital flows is mainly due to the impact on portfolio equity flows. We also show that these effects vary according to country-specific characteristics, institutional stability, and the type of natural disaster. 

Keywords: Natural disasters, Financial flows, Equity, Debt. 

Bao, A., & Boungou, W. (2026). Customers, banks, and natural disasters. Bulletin of Economic Research, 78(1), 108-123. (Link) 

Abstract: We examine the impact of natural disasters on customer capital and bank risk. Using a large panel dataset from 4066 banks in the Eurozone over the period 2000-2021, we find that natural disasters affect customer capital through a deterioration of the guarantees provided. This leads to an increase in bank risk characterized by a decline in the quality of banks' assets and a rise in non-performing loans. These results vary according to the type of natural disasters and bank-specific characteristics. We also provide evidence of the mechanism connecting natural disasters directly and indirectly to financial stability.

Keywords: Banks, Customers, Financial stability, Natural disasters.

Bao, A., Cardebat, J. M., & Chauvin, M. (2025). Evolution and Future of the Competitive Advantages of Wine-Producing Countries. Journal of Agricultural & Food Industrial Organization, 23(2), 133-150. (Link) 

Abstract: This paper discusses international trade prospects of the main wine-producing countries over different time horizons. Our framework is composed of two approaches and aims at renewing and extending the findings of the existing literature on the dynamics of major wine exporters. Relying on both Porter's diamond analysis and survey data, we show that the international competitiveness of countries has significantly changed over the last five years. France and Italy should maintain their leadership, while Spain and Chile are slipping back and China may collapse. 

Keywords: Wine, International trade, Competitiveness.