Research Papers

Publications

1. Wage-Price Spirals: What is the Historical Evidence? Accepted for publication at Economica (with Jorge Alvarez, John Bluedorn, Niels-Jakob Hansen, Youyou Huang, and Evgenia Pugacheva) [Dataset] [Previous version: IMF WP]

   • IMF blog: Wage-Price Spiral Risks Still Contained, Latest Data Suggests

   • Media coverage: Bloomberg; El Pais; New York Times; The Economist

2. Who doesn’t want to be vaccinated? Determinants of vaccine hesitancy during COVID-19. Covid Economics, 2021 (with Era Dabla-Norris, Hibah Khan, and Frederico Lima) [Previous versions: IMF WP, SSRN]

3. Forecasting the Yield Curve for the Euro Region. Economics Letters, 2012 (with Benjamin Tabak, Guilherme Gomes, and Daniel Cajueiro)

IMF Publications

1. Public Perceptions of Climate Mitigation Policies: Evidence from Cross-Country Surveys. IMF Staff Discussion Note, 2023 (with Era Dabla-Norris, Thomas Helbling, Salma Khalid, Hibah Khan, Giacomo Magistretti, and Krishna Srinivasan)

   • Accompanying WP with more detail on data and methods: Public Support for Climate Change Mitigation Policies: A Cross Country Survey. IMF Working Paper, 2023 (with Era Dabla-Norris, Salma Khalid, and Giacomo Magistretti)

   • Launch Event: Public Perceptions of Climate Mitigation Policies: Evidence from Cross-Country Surveys (imf.org) 

   • IMF blog: Support for Climate Action Hinges on Public Understanding of Policy

   • Media coverage: Bloomberg, Sydney Morning Herald, Manila Times

2. Accelerating Innovation and Digitalization in Asia to Boost Productivity. IMF Departmental Paper, 2023 (with Era Dabla-Norris, Tidiane Kinda, Kaustubh Chahande, Hua Chai, Yadian Chen, Alessia De Stefani, Yosuke Kido, and Fan Qi)

   • IMF blog: Asia's Productivity Needs a Boost That Digitalization Can Provide

Working Papers

1. Minimum Wage, Business Dynamism, and the Life Cycle of Firms. IDB Working Paper, 2024 (with André Victor Luduvice and Tomás Martinez)

2. Does information Change Public Support for Climate Mitigation Policies? Working Paper, 2024 (with Era Dabla-Norris, Salma Khalid, and Giacomo Magistretti) [Revise & Resubmit at Climate Policy]

3. Profit Puzzles and the Fall of Public-Firm Profit Rates. Working Paper, 2023 (with Carter Davis and James Traina) [Previous version: Kelley School of Business Working Paper]

   • Presentation: NBER Summer Institute 2023 [slides]

4. Managers and Productivity in Retail. NBER Working Paper, 2023 (with Robert Metcalfe and Chad Syverson) [Revise & Resubmit at Journal of Political Economy]

   • Presentation: NBER Summer Institute 2022 [slides]

   • Media Coverage: Marginal Revolution, Becker Friedman Institute Research Brief

5. Agglomeration, Innovation, and Spatial Reallocation: the Aggregate Effects of R&D Tax Credits. IMF Working Paper, 2022 

6. Sovereign Debt Restructuring and Reduction in Debt-to-GDP Ratio. Working Paper, 2023 (with Sakai Ando, Tamon Asonuma, and Prachi Mishra) 

   • Presentation: DebtCon7 [slides]

7. Geo-economic Fragmentation and Commodity Markets. IMF Working Paper, 2023 (with Jorge Alvarez, Mehdi Benatiya Andaloussi, Chiara Maggi, Martin Stuermer, and Petia Topalova) 

8. Size Dependent Policies, Informality, and Misallocation. IMF Working Paper, 2018 (with Era Dabla-Norris, Laura Jaramillo, and Frederico Lima) 

Dormant Papers

9. Digitalization and Social Protection: Macro and Micro Lessons for Vietnam. IMF Working Paper, 2022 (with Amr Hosny)

10. Household Vulnerability to Income Shocks in Emerging and Developing Asia: the Case of Cambodia, Nepal, and Vietnam.  IMF Working Paper, 2022 (with Alessia De Stefani and Athene Laws)

In Progress

1. Commodity Trade Fragmentation and Market Power (with Chiara Maggi and David Shin)

2. Industrial Policies for Innovation: A Cost-Benefit Framework (with Daniel Garcia-Macia)

Policy Research

1. Expanding Frontiers: Fiscal Policies for Innovation and Technology Diffusion. Fiscal Monitor, April 2024

   • IMF blog: Industrial Policy Is Not a Magic Cure for Slow Growth

2. Slowdown in Global Medium-term Growth: What Will it Take to Turn the Tide? World Economic Outlook, April 2024

   • IMF blog: World Must Prioritize Productivity Reforms to Revive Medium-Term Growth

3. Fragmentation and Commodity Markets: Vulnerabilities and Risks. World Economic Outlook, October 2023.

   • IMF blog: Geoeconomic Fragmentation Threatens Food Security and Clean Energy Transition

4. Coming Down to Earth: How to Tackle Soaring Public Debt. World Economic Outlook, April 2023.

   • IMF blog: How to Tackle Soaring Public Debt

5. Wage Dynamics Post-Covid-19 and Wage-Price Spiral Risks. World Economic Outlook, October 2022.

   • IMF blog: Wage-Price Spiral Risks Appear Contained Despite High Inflation

   • Short video (Analytical Corner, 2022 Annual Meetings): Wage Dynamics Post-Covid-19 and Wage-Price Spiral Risks

Reports

1. Cote d'Ivoire: Request for an Arrangement Under the Resilience and Sustainability Facility; Staff Report. International Monetary Fund, 2024. Washington D.C.

2. Vietnam: 2022 Article IV Consultation Staff Report. International Monetary Fund, 2022. Washington D.C.

3. Vietnam: 2020 Article IV Consultation Staff Report. International Monetary Fund, 2020. Washington D.C.

Columns & Other Media

• Why Are Overall Profits Outpacing Financing Costs? Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco Economic Letter, June 2024

  • Coverage: Macro Roundup, June 20, 2024

• Wage-Price Spirals: The Historical Evidence. VoxEU Column, November 2022