Alexandra Avdeenko
I work with the Finance, Competition, and Investment Global Department at the World Bank.
I am J-PAL invited researcher, Research Affiliate at the Center for Economic Policy Research (CEPR),
and a Lecturer in Economics at Heidelberg University,
where I am affiliated to the Chair International and Development Politics and to the Experimental Economics Group.
My work is in the field of Applied Microeconomics, in particular on Development Economics (with a focus on rigorous impact evaluations), Political Economy, and Economics of Crime. Moreover, I am interested in studying research ethics.
POLICY/ PRogram EVALUATIONS
I have designed and conducted numerous impact evaluations (incl. training; data collections) among others in Azerbaijan, Ethiopia, India, Indonesia, Montenegro, Sudan, Pakistan, the Philippines, and Romania.
I have been working with implementing partners such as UNICEF, UNDP, FAO, ACTED, ILO, NRSP, the World Bank, 3ie, the Green Climate Fund, and governments in the respective countries.
Some of the work resulted in academic research...
Research
My work has been published in the American Political Science Review, The World Bank Research Observer,
the Scandinavian Journal of Economics, the European Economic Review,
the Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, and World Development.
Published/ Under Review
Cost and benefits of climate change policies: Evidence from an RCT and extreme flooding in Pakistan (with M. Frölich). forthcom. Journal of the European Economic Association; Link to report.
A significant component of the cost of climate change is the investment required for adaptation pro- grams. Effective adaptation strategies are becoming essential for managing the negative economic impacts of climate change. In this study, we estimate climate change damage costs that incorporate adaptation costs and benefits under different environmental scenarios. Over a three-year period, we tracked households in rural Sindh, some of which experienced extreme monsoon flooding in 2016. We present how targeted climate adaptation measures can be effective in mitigating adverse climate effects and fostering resilience. Compared to a randomly selected control group, communities participating in a humanitarian aid preparedness program demonstrated significant improvements in food security and health outcomes after experiencing the negative weather shock. A cost-benefit analysis shows that the adaptation investments pay for themselves after a short period of time and have the potential to considerably reduce the social costs of carbon if a longer time horizon is considered. The paper contributes to the climate change literature by demonstrating how estimates from field experiments can be used to update the costs of climate change projections, while also highlighting the limitations of this approach.
Changing Business Practices of Micro and Small Enterprises Evidence from an RCT with 12 Financial Service Providers (with M. Frölich, S. Helmsmüller) Journal of Development Studies (Link)
Despite access to financial resources, many micro and small-scale entrepreneurs struggle to grow their businesses due to management inefficiencies. This study analyses a globally recognized ILO business training initiative in Indonesia, involving 12 financial service providers in 2018. Using an RCT and panel data from 3,975 clients to study the impacts of the business training we find largely null results across a large range of outcomes. Exploiting variation across financial institutions implementing the program, we show that one financial service provider demonstrated significant improvements in its clients’ behaviours. This uneven outcome suggests that the efficacy of large-scale interventions critically depends on the quality of implementation by individual partners. The overarching conclusions advise restraint in broadly expanding these programs, while simultaneously highlighting the crucial role of partner selection in the successful implementation of these initiatives.
Research Standards in Empirical Development Economics: What's Well Begun, is Half Done (with M. Frölich), World Development. 2020. DOI
The 2019 Economics Nobel Laureates have shed light on how several disciplines can learn from each other to achieve a greater goal. Thanks to their work, economics has begun to follow the methodological and institutional path laid out, amongst others, in medical sciences. The prize creates a momentum in economics to work on areas in which the field still falls short of achievable, higher standards and on more rigor in research transparency, cooperation, and accountability. Yet we also argue that the benefits from the linkage between disciplines are not one-sided. The application and recognition of field experiments as a method in economics have also advanced and enlarged the methodological toolkit on topics such as quasi-experimental method, non-compliance, and mediation analysis. Methods urgently needed to address topics of global concern.
Underconfidence and the Use of Persuasive Messages in the Attainment of Savings Goals (with A. Bohne and M. Frölich), Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization. 2019. DOI
In this paper we investigate behavioral constraints to savings among smallholder farmers in rural Ethiopia. Increasing savings by overcoming such behavioral constraints has been documented to have positive effects on various outcomes such as health, education, and agricultural investments. We causally identify a strong increase in savings to a soft commitment device in the form of a moneybox with a regular savings plan. In our randomized field experiment, we also provide personalized feedback consisting of recommendations to self-set saving goals. These recommendations trigger increases in savings of up to 36 percent. In a detailed analysis of the behavioral characteristics driving these results, we find a strong and robust link between financial confidence and savings behavior. In particular, the savings of underconfident individuals are less than 2/3 of the savings of overconfident individuals — an association stronger than other behavioral traits such as risk-lovingness and present-biasedness. Remarkably, the effect of our personalized feedback is particularly strong for underconfident individuals. We discuss possible underlying mechanisms, rule out a set of alternative behavioral explanations, and address crowding-out behavior into other forms of saving.
Long-Term Evidence of Retrospective Voting: A Natural Experiment from the German Democratic Republic. European Economic Review, 103, April 2018. DOI
The paper investigates long-lasting electoral punishment. Decades of communist socialization and the repressive rule of a single-party have left their left-wing fingerprint on East Germany. In this paper we show that voters act rationally: given negative life circumstances experienced under the rule of the communist party, they display retrospective voting even decades later. Our insight is based on the analysis of 19 years of revealed and stated party preferences. We argue that life at the Border Region to West Germany was particularly hard and find that East German voters who lived close to the inner-German border before the reunification of the two states are 5.9 percentage points less likely to lean toward the successor party to East Germany’s communists. Given that over the years roughly every fifth person has revealed preferences for the communists in the East, this translates to over thirty percent reduction. We confirm the preferences with administrative data: The electoral punishment estimated at the district-level amounts to a reduction of 1.3 percentage points of votes for the party.
Intergenerational Correlations of Extreme Right-Wing Party Preferences and Attitudes toward Immigration (with T. Siedler) Scandinavian Journal of Economics, April 2017. DOI
In this paper, we analyze the importance of parental socialization on the development of children's far right‐wing preferences and attitudes toward immigration. Using longitudinal data from Germany, our intergenerational estimates suggest that the strongest and most important predictor for young people's right‐wing extremism are their parents' right‐wing extremist attitudes. While intergenerational associations in attitudes toward immigration are equally high for sons and daughters, we find a positive intergenerational transmission of right‐wing extremist party affinity for sons, but not for daughters. Compared to the intergenerational correlation of other party affinities, the high association between fathers' and sons' right‐wing extremist attitudes is particularly striking.
International Interventions to Build Social Capital: Evidence from a Field Experiment in Sudan (with M. Gilligan) American Political Science Review, 2015, 109 (03), 427–449. DOI. awarded: African Politics Conference Group Best Article in African Politics published in 2015 (issued by the American Political Science Association)
Increasingly the international community attempts to improve local public infrastructure in developing countries by creating more participatory local governance and social capital. We report on a randomized field experiment conducted in 24 communities (16 treated and 8 control) in rural Sudan. We offer a clearer theoretical statement of how these programs might alter the political landscape of the recipient villages. We measure norms using lab-in-the-field techniques and we measure network density with a survey of our 475 lab subjects. We appraise the participatory character of local governance and civic participation with a survey of 576 households. The program did not affect either networks or norms, but civic participation and the participatory nature of local governance increased. Thus we attribute the increase in citizen participation not to social capital growth but to more open local governing institutions.
Measuring Violent Conflict in Micro-level Surveys: Current Practices and Methodological Challenges (with T. Brück, P. Justino, P. Verwimp, A. Tedesco), The World Bank Research Observer, 2015. Link.
ONGOING
Renewable Energy Investments: Micro-Finance Support for Small Businesses and Micro Enterprises in Pakistan (with D. Müller, M. Frölich)
Renewable Energy Investments: Pan-European RCT (with N. Kala, F. Campos, L. Iacovone, R. Martin, J. Salhab)
Matching Firms and Scientists: Evidence from a Randomized Controlled Trial (with N. Kala, R. Chandy, F. Campos, L. Iacovone)
Foundational Digitalization: Evidence from a Large-Scale RCT in Romania (with S. Anderson, R. Chandy, L. Marc, L. Iacovone, J. Balbuena)
Psychological Support for Ukrainian Refugees in Germany (with L. Behaghel, E. Duflo, A. Ette, K. Spiess, A. Obminski, Y. Hazard, N. Ruesch, A. Moldavski)
Sanctions, Sales, and Stigma: A Tale on the Performance of International Brands in Russia (with K. Kis-Katos, M. Kaiser, L. Reher), featured in FAZ, R&R at Journal of International Economics
The Freedom of Others: On Behavioral Responses to Mass-Releases from Prison in the German Democratic Republic (East Germany)
The Power of Faith: Effects of an Imam-led Information Campaign on Labor Supply and Social Interactions‘, CEPR Discussion Paper No. 19724. CEPR Press (with J Gärtner, M Gillaizeau, G Karbala, L Montenbruck, G Montresor, A Pasha and G Zudenkova).
The Impact of Climate Change on Risk Aversion and Mitigation Behavior: Evidence from Germany (with O. Eryilmaz) CEPR Working Paper DP16266 Media: VOX, UN's PreventionWeb
How informed is consent? Evidence from a field experiment (with M. Stelter); CEPR Working Paper 16988 or directly HERE
available upon request:
How important are Firm Visits for High School Students? Evidence from a Randomized-Control Trial
Improving Adolescents' Lives in South Asia - Multi-Country Impact Evaluation in Pakistan and India. Endline reports completed. Call
Refereeing
American Political Science Review, British Journal of Political Science, European Economic Review, Economic Journal, Public Choice, The Scandinavian Journal of Economics
Policy
See the work on Ukraine's private sector: https://documents.worldbank.org/pt/publication/documents-reports/documentdetail/099121623102526502