Research
Projects
CLIMANDES (Peru)
CLIMANDES is a joint project with MeteoSchweiz which aims at evaluating socio-economic benefits of climate services in the agricultural sector of Peru. The first stage of the project focuses on two important agricultural subsectors - coffee-farming and maize-farming in the Cusco region, with coffee being the main cash crop and maize the main subsistence crop. The second stage of the project focuses on quinoa farmers in the region of Puno.
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We develop a theoretical and an empirical model to evaluate the gains from introducing climate services in these two key subsectors. The models incorporate the crucial characteristics of the respective crops and the farming process, including crop exposure to negative weather shocks which occur at random times and cause a random damage. The climate services are specifically tailored to farmers' needs and allow them to avoid crop losses, thereby ensuring not only the food security but also preservation of crop varieties.
Environmental Migration
Climate change, migration, and the environment are interconnected. Global warming and changing climate cause severe natural disasters which in turn force people to move to other, safer places. Hence, migration can be viewed as both an adaptation and a survivor strategy. Migration, and especially mass-migration, can have a profound impact on the environment of the new settlement location but also on its economic structure. Labor and commodities markets will be affected the most, along with government budgets and public spending.
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Environmental migration research has experienced a substantial growth over the last decade, especially in terms of empirical case studies. Nevertheless, there are still multiple gaps and challenges surrounding the issue. "The main challenges reside in the realm of causalities (e.g. to what extent the environment acts as the primary driver, what migration patterns emerge in response to different environmental stressors, what socioeconomic or other factors need to be considered with regard to vulnerability) and the data (e.g. how many people will migrate and where, how climate models can be improved and account for the multi-causal nature of migration and how migration and environment datasets across countries and regions can be enhanced and/or harmonized" (IOM 2014). The above quote from the IOM (2014) highlights two types of challenges: (i) the conceptual challenge reflected in understanding of links and causalities among the various factors influencing migration; and (ii) the data challenge reflected in being able to gather the most representative information on migrants', as well as non-migrants', socioeconomic and behavioral characteristics, and characteristics of their environments. Both challenges need to be addressed in order to predict future migration flows driven by environmental push factors - the policy makers object of interest and concern.
Work in Progress
"Environmental Drivers and Migration"
“Misfortunes Never Come Singly: Managing the Risk of Chain Disasters” (with L. Bretschger and A. Minabutdinov)
“Attitude to Risk, Exposure to Weather Hazards and Valuation of Climate Information: Evidence from Quinoa Farming in Peru” (with F. Lechthaler)
“The Theory behind the Evidence on Environmental Migration”
"Alternative to Fortress Europe"
Publications
“Resource Discoveries and the Political Survival of Dictators” (with E. Grieg), Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, vol. 124, March 2024
“Escaping Damocles’ Sword: Endogenous Climate Shocks in a Growing Economy” (with L. Bretschger), Environmental and Resource Economics, February 2024
“Dynamics of Mass Migration” (with S. Djajic), Review of International Economics, vol. 30(5), February 2022, pp. 1414-1431.
“Valuing Meteorological Services in Resource-Constrained Settings: Application to smallholder farmers in the Peruvian Altiplano” (with M. Flubacher and F. Lechthaler), Climate Risk Management, vol. 34, September 2021
“Purchasing Power Parity Shocks and Saving Behavior of Temporary Migrants,” (with A. Akay, S. Djajic, and M. Kirdar), European Economic Review, May 2021, 103682.
“Carbon Pricing, Technology Transition, and Skill-Based Development” (with K. Borissov and L. Bretschger), European Economic Review, September 2019, vol. 118, pp. 252-269.
“Immigration Policies and the Choice between Documented and Undocumented Migration” (with S. Djajic), Economica, January 2019, vol. 86 (341), pp. 201-228.
“Economic Development on a Finite Planet with Stochastic Soil Degradation” (with L. Bretschger), European Economic Review, September 2018, vol. 108, pp. 1-19.
The following articles are published under the name "Vinogradova":
“Best Policy Response to Environmental Shocks: Applying a Stochastic Framework” (with L. Bretschger), Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, September 2019, vol. 97, pp. 23-41.
“How climate services can help the world’s poor” (with M. Flubacher, F. Lechthaler, and A. Rossa), Angle Journal, March 2018, online.
“Climate Challenge for Agriculture and the Value of Climate Services: Application to Coffee Farming in Peru” (with F. Lechthaler), European Economic Review, May 2017, vol. 94, pp. 45-70.
“Human Development at Risk: Economic Growth with Pollution-Induced Health Shocks” (with L. Bretschger), Environmental and Resource Economics, March 2017, vol. 66(3), pp. 481-495.
“Credit Markets and Investment in Renewable Energy under Uncertainty,” Macroeconomic Dynamics, September 2017, vol. 21(6), pp. 1252-1276.
“Illegal Immigration, Deportation Policy, and the Optimal Timing of Return”, Journal of Population Economics, July 2016, vol. 29(3), pp. 781-816.
“Source-Country Earnings and Emigration” (with S. Djajic and M.G. Kirdar), Journal of International Economics, March 2016, vol. 99, pp. 46-67.
“Equitable and Effective Climate Policy: Integrating Less-Developed Countries into a Global Climate Agreement” (with L. Bretschger), International Economics and Economic Policy, October 2015, vol. 12 (4), pp 437-467.
“Overshooting the Savings Target: Temporary Migration, Investment in Housing and Development” (with S. Djajic), World Development, January 2015, vol. 65, pp. 110-121.
“Overstaying Guest Workers and the Incentives for Return” (with S. Djajic), CESifo Economic Studies, September-December 2015, vol. 61(3-4), pp. 764-796.
“Liquidity-Constrained Migrants” (with S. Djajic), Journal of International Economics, May 2014, vol. 93(1), pp. 210-224.
“Dynamic Behavior of Oil Importers and Exporters under Uncertainty” (with L. Bretschger), in: Moser, Elke, Willi Semmler, Gernot Tragler, and Vladimir Veliov (Eds.): Dynamic Optimization in Environmental Economics, Springer, Heidelberg, 2014.
“Legal and Illegal Immigrants: An Analysis of Optimal Saving Behavior,” Journal of Population Economics, January 2014, vol. 27 (1), pp. 201-224.
“Undocumented Migrants in Debt” (with S. Djajic), Labour Economics, April 2013, vol. 21, pp. 15-24.
“Migration of Skilled Workers: Policy Interaction between Host and Source Countries” (with S. Djajic and M.S. Michael), Journal of Public Economics, December 2012, vol. 96 (11-12), pp. 1015–1024.