Working Papers
Dynamic Migration: From Local Effects to Aggregate Implications [Draft]
What are the local and aggregate dynamic effects of regional migration flows? To address this question, I combine a panel SVAR framework with a shift-share instrument based on lagged birth rates to analyze the short-, medium-, and long-term impacts of a 1% increase in migration to U.S. commuting zones. My estimates indicate that these inflows raise wages and output per worker, with effects peaking between 0.2% and 0.3% over time. However, the most substantial impact is observed in housing prices, which reach a long-run level 0.9% higher than pre-shock levels. To assess whether these local effects translate into significant aggregate outcomes, I examine labor "deportation'' and "relocation'' through the prism of a dynamic spatial model that I estimate through impulse response matching to the empirical findings. The deportation scenario removes workers unevenly across regions, resulting in a long-term reduction in aggregate output of 1%. In contrast, the relocation scenario redistributes these workers across other regions in the country. Although this redistribution does not alter the steady state, it can lead to a temporary output decline of up to 1%, with recovery times exceeding 50 years, depending on the skill composition of relocated workers.Â
Batten Down the Hatches: The macroeconomic effects of maritime shocks [Draft][Slides]
From the Suez Canal blockage to the Covid-19 lockdowns, recent events showed that turmoil in maritime transportation can turn into macroeconomic disruptions. Some argue that since these supply chain shocks will eventually dissipate, the effects on aggregate variables is transitory. Is this the case for small open economies? This paper investigates the macroeconomic effects of maritime transportation shocks in the case of Chile. Leveraging high-frequency customs data and port-level statistics, I identify these shocks using a strategy based on the inelastic short-term supply of vessels embeded in a SVAR framework. I then use local projections to estimate the dynamic impact of shipping disruptions on trade flows, industrial production, employment, and prices. The results reveal that maritime shocks significantly affect both port operations and broader macroeconomic aggregates, with notable implications for trade patterns, producer prices, and sectoral output.