Working Papers
Population Shocks, Migration Flows, and Persistent Regional Dynamics [Draft]
What are the local and aggregate dynamic effects of regional population pressure, and how do they evolve over time through endogenous migration responses? To address this question, I combine a panel SVAR framework with an external shift-share instrument that leverages lagged birth-rate variation to estimate the short-, medium-, and long-term effects of a 1% increase in migration inflows to U.S. commuting zones. The resulting impulse responses show that inflows raise output per worker and wages, with output per worker peaking around 0.2% above pre-shock levels and wages rising more gradually. At the same time, housing prices—an indicator of congestion—respond strongly and persistently, peaking around 0.35% and settling at a higher long-run level. I then embed these local dynamic causal effects in a quantitative dynamic spatial model with migration frictions and productivity spillovers, estimated by impulse-response matching. The model translates shocks that change regional population stocks into shifting congestion and agglomeration forces, evolving local attractiveness, and adjustments in gross inflows and outflows. Using counterfactual experiments calibrated to the geographic distribution of undocumented workers, I study region-specific labor removal and redistribution. Labor removal reduces aggregate output per capita by about 1% in the long run, while redistribution leaves the steady state unchanged but can generate temporary output losses of up to 1% and recovery times exceeding 50 years, depending on the skill composition of relocated workers.
Batten Down the Hatches: The macroeconomic effects of maritime shocks [Draft][Slides]
From the Suez Canal blockage to the Covid-19 lockdowns, recent events showed that turmoil in maritime transportation can turn into macroeconomic disruptions. Some argue that since these supply chain shocks will eventually dissipate, the effects on aggregate variables is transitory. Is this the case for small open economies? This paper investigates the macroeconomic effects of maritime transportation shocks in the case of Chile. Leveraging high-frequency customs data and port-level statistics, I identify these shocks using a strategy based on the inelastic short-term supply of vessels embeded in a SVAR framework. I then use local projections to estimate the dynamic impact of shipping disruptions on trade flows, industrial production, employment, and prices. The results reveal that maritime shocks significantly affect both port operations and broader macroeconomic aggregates, with notable implications for trade patterns, producer prices, and sectoral output.