Working Papers
Population Shocks, Migration Flows, and Persistent Regional Dynamics [Draft]
What are the local and aggregate effects of local population shocks, and how do they propagate through endogenous migration? To address this question, I combine a panel SVAR with an external shift-share instrument that leverages lagged birth-rate variation to estimate the response to a 1% increase of migration inflows in U.S. commuting zones. The shock generates persistent inflow dynamics, raises output per worker by about 0.2% at its peak, and increases housing prices by roughly 0.45%, with the latter remaining elevated years after the initial shock. I then develop a quantitative dynamic spatial model, and discipline it by matching the responses of gross inflows, output per worker, and housing prices, which capture migration adjustment, agglomeration, and congestion. In the model, population-stock shocks alter local attractiveness through these forces and thereby induce endogenous gross inflows and outflows. I then use the model to birth-rate changes as well as policy-driven labor removal and redistribution. Regions with higher fertility experience a rise in output per worker along with a larger increase of housing prices. On the other hand, labor removal lowers aggregate output per capita by about 0.5% in the long run, whereas redistribution preserves the long-run steady state. However, depending on the skill composition of relocated workers, the latter policy generates temporary effects ranging from a gain of about 0.7% to a loss of about 1.3%, with convergence taking more than 50 years.
Batten Down the Hatches: The macroeconomic effects of maritime shocks [Draft][Slides]
From the Suez Canal blockage to the Covid-19 lockdowns, recent events showed that turmoil in maritime transportation can turn into macroeconomic disruptions. Some argue that since these supply chain shocks will eventually dissipate, the effects on aggregate variables is transitory. Is this the case for small open economies? This paper investigates the macroeconomic effects of maritime transportation shocks in the case of Chile. Leveraging high-frequency customs data and port-level statistics, I identify these shocks using a strategy based on the inelastic short-term supply of vessels embeded in a SVAR framework. I then use local projections to estimate the dynamic impact of shipping disruptions on trade flows, industrial production, employment, and prices. The results reveal that maritime shocks significantly affect both port operations and broader macroeconomic aggregates, with notable implications for trade patterns, producer prices, and sectoral output.