FUNDAMENTAL ANALYSIS
What is your dream car? Well, mine is BMW M5, a high performance sedan with a 4.4-litre twin turbo V8 engine, producing 600 - 727 in horsepower and 1000 Nm of torque. This car provides heart-racing performance with a sleek design and also the comfort in one package. Let's shift gears from car enthusiasm to data analysis. This report intends to analyze the operational effectiveness, valuation and stock movement BMW Group. Technical analysis will give us insights of the price trends and volatility of BMW Group. Comparison with Volkswagen and Mercedes Benz Group will helps us get a clear image of its performance.
Operational Efficiency and Return on Capital Employed
Mercedes shows a high operating profit margins that peaked in 2022 - 2023 with a significant drop in 2024. Similarly, the management's ability to generate profits from capital invested peaked between 2022 - 2023 and dropped significantly in 2024. These ratios suggests a key management policy or industry turbulence that affected the company in 2024. In general, Mercedes Benz shows a stable trend of revenue generation.
Volkswagen shows a gradual improvement in both operating efficiency and ROCE from 2021 to 2023. The profitability margins are however lower than those of both Mercedes and BMW. There is a significant drop in these margins in 2024, an indication of major industry turbulence that affected the three car manufacturers.
BMW demonstrates a consistent growth in operating margins and the management's ability to generate profit from shareholder's investment. While these profitability margins remained stable, there is a drop in 2024, a confirmation that a major industry movement that slowed the companys' general operating efficiency.
Valuation
There is a gradual and consistent decline in the income generated per each share from 21.50 in 2021 to 10.19 in 2024. The dividends per share to investors increased from 1.35 in 2021 through 5.24 in 2023 to 5.48 in 2024 indicating confidence in cashflow and long-term commitment to investors. P/E ratio increased from 2.30 in 2021 to 4.86 in 2024, suggesting that the investors were willing to pay more for each unit of profit for they expect the company to do better in the future.
There is an inconsistent trend in the EPS of Volkswagen, with the ratio dropping from 30.68 in 2021 to 30.83 in 2022 and increased to 32.98 in 2023. The ratio however dropped significantly to 22.64 in 2024. This ratio raises a major concern for the investors on the operational efficiency of the company in generating income. The dividends paid to investors per share increased significantly from 6.03 in 2021 to 23.40 in 2023 but dropped again to 11.53 in 2024. There is no significant change in the amount the investors are willing to pay for a share of Volkswagen, with the ratio stagnating between 3.81 in 2021 and 3.67 in 2024. This indicates that investors are skeptical on the performance of this company in the future.
BMW recorded all time high income per share in 2022 with the ratio increasing from 20.57 to 30.01 in 2022, suggesting the company performed well in 2022 compared to other periods. However, there is a consistent drop in the EPS in 2023 (19.47) to 12.78 in 2024. There is a consistent trend of EPS drop in 2024, indicating an industry issue that cut across all the companies. The dividends paid to the investors grew consistently from 2021 to 2023 while the value dropped in 2024, suggesting that the company retained more in this period to help revive the dropping financial performance. Investors are expecting BMW Group to perform better in the future as supported by the growing P/E ratio from 3.29 in 2021 to 5.87 in 2024.
TECHNICAL ANALYSIS
Mercedes shows a moderate and consistent upward trend in its stock price from 2021 to 2024 with the stock performance peaking around 2023-2024. For investors, this appears to be a low volatile stock as supported by its mild fluctuations and recovery within this period. Volkswagen displays a long-term declining trend from 2021 to 2024 with short-term rebounds. It suggests a major structural or strategic policies in the company. Investors holding units of this stock could earn big if the stock prices suddenly returns to previous highs. BMW Group has the most consistent price trend as shown by the increasing stock price from 2021 to 2023 with significant levels of volatility. Even though the price slightly dropped in 2024, there is a overall upward trend signaling market confidence and solid fundamentals.
Stock Movement Vs. Market
The model explains 45% of the changes in the stock movements of Mercedes Benz. This indicates that systematic risks such as inflation or recession among other market risks are likely to have a significant effect on the behaviour of this stock. Beta of 1.11 indicates that the stock is 11% more aggressive than the market. In other words, if there is a market shift, for example increase in inflation, the stock is likey to react 11% faster than the market.
The model explains only 39.7% of the changes in stock price movements. This indicates that there is a very minimal effect of market risks on the behaviour of this stock. Company or industry policies are likely to influence the movement of this stock by 60.3%. Of the small changes explained by the model, the stock is likely to be respond faster to market risks by 13.53% compared to the market indexes.
The model explains 39.6% of the changes in BMW stock price movements. Of the small margin explained by the model, the stock is likely to respond almost at the same rate as the market as supported by a beta of 1.0443
PORTFOLIO OPTIMIZATION
On average, the monthly expected return of Mercedes stock price is 1.14%, 1.23% for BMW while that of Volkswagen is 0.45%.
Assuming I had additional $20,000 left after buying a unit of BMW M5 five years ago, and I have a choice to invest that money in stocks specifically in 3 car manufacturers BMW Group, Volkswagen and Mercedes, how would have spread the risk?
On optimizing the individual stocks into a single unit of investment, 44% of my investment would have gone to BMW Group stock while 56% goes to Mercedes Benz stock and none to Volkswagen. That means $8,800 buys BMW stocks and $11,200 in Mercedes Benz stocks. With a monthly expected return of 1.18%, the optimized portfolio would have earned me additional $236 monthly on average from 2021 to 2025 with 6.57% risk of not gaining or loss of investment.
Volkswagen's P/E ratio indicates that investors are skeptical about the growth of the company, with no significant upward growth. Similarly, the stock price seems to be dropping, suggesting a major management policy or intense competition from Chinese car market where demand for EV has increased devastatingly. These among other reasons could be the reason why the solver eliminated the stock from contributing to the portfolio's monthly expected return.