AQI Forecasting AND FUTURE TRENDS
Using historical air quality data to identify patterns and forecast future AQI trends across Indian regions.
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Why Forecast AQI?
While historical analysis helps us understand past air quality patterns, forecasting allows us to estimate future conditions based on recurring trends and seasonal behaviour.
Forecasting can help:
Identify potential pollution peaks
Understand seasonal air quality risks
Support environmental awareness
Demonstrate applications of predictive analytics
Explore the Forecast
This model uses historical AQI observations to identify long-term trends and seasonal patterns, generating estimates for future air quality conditions.
Forecast Overview
⚫Black dots represent actual AQI observations.
🔵Blue line represents the model's AQI predictions.
➡️Shaded region represents the prediction uncertainty range.
Key Insight
Key Insight
The model captures recurring seasonal fluctuations in AQI while indicating a gradual improvement in average air quality over time.
Understanding the Trend Component
Observation
Observation
The trend line shows a gradual decline in AQI values between 2022 and 2026, suggesting a long-term improvement in average air quality conditions.
The trend line shows a gradual decline in AQI values between 2022 and 2026, suggesting a long-term improvement in average air quality conditions.
Why This Matters
Why This Matters
A decreasing trend may indicate:
Improved pollution control measures
Changes in industrial emissions
Environmental regulations
Understanding Seasonality
Seasonal Patterns
Seasonality captures recurring AQI changes throughout the year. Air quality exhibits strong seasonal variation, with certain periods consistently experiencing higher AQI levels than others.
Why This Matters
Why This Matters
Seasonal fluctuations may be influenced by:
Weather conditions & Temperature inversions
Rainfall patterns
Agricultural burning
Festival-related emissions
Limitations
Forecasts are estimates rather than guarantees. They are based on historical patterns and cannot fully account for unexpected events such as extreme weather, policy changes, industrial incidents, or sudden shifts in emissions.
How Accurate Are Forecasts?
How Accurate Are Forecasts?
Forecasts become more valuable when compared against real-world observations.
This project not only predicts future AQI but also collects live air quality data to monitor current conditions.
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