The Future Of COVID19 - Stopping The COVID Virus


Another major concern from health professionals around the world is whether COVID-19 will develop into a seasonal disease. Many expected that the pandemic would peak in the summer of 2020, but the United States instead saw an increase in cases in the South and West. Caetano-Anollés, however, asserts that the data has been muddled by the pandemic's severity.

"When you're dealing with a raging pandemic on this scale, seasonality is irrelevant,” he says. Caetano-Anollés discovered that COVID-19 cases and mortality rates are significantly related to temperature and latitude in 221 countries in a study published in January. This indicates that as case numbers decline, COVID-19 may develop into a seasonal illness similar to the flu, which peaks in the fall and winter.

According to Caetano-Anollés, many viruses wax and wane with the seasons for two reasons. One is that the virus's outer membrane could be susceptible to certain environmental factors, such as heat and ultraviolet light. Additionally, our immune system varies with the seasons, becoming stronger in the summer, possibly due to increased vitamin D production.

Seasonality, on the other hand, does not mean that a virus disappears for the remainder of the year. “The reason we have flu outbreaks every year is because there is still a low level of infections occurring outside of flu season,” Caetano-Anollés explains, “and this level is sufficient to sustain the virus in between peaks."

In the long run, Wherry envisions two distinct scenarios for what he refers to as a "healthy result" for COVID-19. One possibility is that SARS-CoV-2 ultimately vanishes due to widespread immunity, possibly to be replaced by other coronavirus strains, as happened with the Spanish flu. Another possibility is that it will persist and evolve into an endemic seasonal virus that mostly infects young children who lack immunity but rarely causes severe illness, similar to other coronaviruses that circulate in humans and cause common colds.

Indeed, scientists at Emory University and Penn State University recently developed a model based on research on other human coronaviruses that predicts SARS-CoV-2 will eventually become a mild childhood illness with a fatality rate comparable to seasonal flu.

According to Wherry, the undesirable result is “If we do not vaccinate a sufficient number of people, the virus mutates to remain pathogenic, killing thousands upon thousands of people each year.” Experts agree that the only way to prevent the nightmare scenario is to spread the vaccine as soon as possible across the world.


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