Working Papers
“Groundwater depletion and labor reallocation: evidence from India” (Job Market Paper)
India, the world's largest groundwater user, faces a critical challenge: unsustainable groundwater depletion. This study examines the causal impact of groundwater depletion on labor reallocation from agriculture to non-agricultural sectors. Using instrumental variables approach and granular data, I show that dryness, measured by deviations from historical rainfall patterns, significantly reduces the share of agricultural labor. This decline is related to decreased agricultural productivity and intensified irrigation practices. Dryness also exerts downward pressure on nonagricultural wages, suggesting broader effects on the labor market. Furthermore, road and market densities moderate the impact of dryness on agricultural labor share, highlighting the role of infrastructure in facilitating labor reallocation. These findings shed light on the complex dynamics between groundwater depletion, labor reallocation, and wage structures in India.
“Analysis of Sustainable Development: An Overlapping Generations Model of Agricultural Households in Developing Countries”, (Accepted, Environment and Development Economics)
This paper examines the effectiveness of individual transferable quotas (ITQs) in promoting sustainable resource management within an overlapping generations economy where agricultural producers face credit constraints. The analysis shows that, although ITQs restore the social optimum when markets are complete, their effectiveness breaks down when credit constraints bind. Credit frictions create a wedge between the marginal product of the resource and its effective price, leading constrained agents to underinvest in quotas and generating resource misallocation. As a result, ITQs alone are insufficient to ensure environmental preservation without compromising welfare. The paper therefore shows that policies improving credit access, such as loan guarantees, are necessary complements to ITQ systems if sustainable resource management is to be achieved.
“Policy interventions and agricultural outcomes: evaluating the NSFM's impact on wheat production in India” (with Kyle Emerick)
We evaluate the causal impact of India's National Food Security Mission (NFSM) on wheat production using a combined Regression Discontinuity Design (RDD) and Dynamic Difference-in-Differences (DID) approach. The RDD leverages the discontinuity of the 2012 NFSM expansion eligibility at the 50,000 hectares wheat area threshold. DID incorporates both 2007 and 2012 program waves. We find a significant increase in wheat area (51.59%) and production (49.0%) in eligible districts, with no impact on yield. Sensitivity analyses confirm the robustness. This study fills a gap by providing rigorous causal evidence for the effectiveness of NFSM in increasing wheat production. The combined approach strengthens causal inference and offers policy insights. Expanding the NFSM and incorporating yield-improving measures can enhance the impact of the program, informing future interventions for food security.
Selected Work in Progress
“Rationing of production and separability failure in the Agricultural household model.”
“Agricultural Development and Environmental Quality in India” (with Kyle Emerick and Marina M. Ngoma)