Working Papers
“Analysis of Sustainable Development: An Overlapping Generations Model of Agricultural Households in Developing Countries”, Revise and Submit, Environment and Development Economics
This paper investigates the efficacy of individual transferable quotas (ITQs) in optimally allocating renewable natural resources across generations, with a focus on sustainable development. The study is set within the context of an economy of generations overlapping, comprising agricultural households that exploit a renewable natural resource, regulated by an ITQ system. The findings reveal that in the absence of market imperfections, the ITQ market can effectively restore the social optimum by internalizing the externalities related to the use of natural resources and those arising from a non-cooperative quota market. However, when credit markets are constrained, the ITQ market alone falls short of ensuring environmental preservation without compromising agent welfare. Consequently, public policies aimed at enhancing access to credit for households requiring financing emerge as a necessary measure to achieve the social optimum in sustainable resource management. The results emphasize the need to consider both economic and environmental factors in the design of policies aimed at promoting sustainable development.
“Groundwater depletion and labor reallocation: evidence from India”
India, the world's largest groundwater user, faces a critical challenge: unsustainable groundwater depletion. This study examines the causal impact of groundwater depletion on labor reallocation from agriculture to non-agricultural sectors. Using instrumental variables approach and granular data, I show that dryness, measured by deviations from historical rainfall patterns, significantly reduces the share of agricultural labor. This decline is related to decreased agricultural productivity and intensified irrigation practices. Dryness also exerts downward pressure on nonagricultural wages, suggesting broader effects on the labor market. Furthermore, road and market densities moderate the impact of dryness on agricultural labor share, highlighting the role of infrastructure in facilitating labor reallocation. These findings shed light on the complex dynamics between groundwater depletion, labor reallocation, and wage structures in India.
“Policy interventions and agricultural outcomes: evaluating the NSFM's impact on wheat production in India” (with Kyle Emerick)
We evaluate the causal impact of India's National Food Security Mission (NFSM) on wheat production using a combined Regression Discontinuity Design (RDD) and Dynamic Difference-in-Differences (DID) approach. The RDD leverages the discontinuity of the 2012 NFSM expansion eligibility at the 50,000 hectares wheat area threshold. DID incorporates both 2007 and 2012 program waves. We find a significant increase in wheat area (51.59%) and production (49.0%) in eligible districts, with no impact on yield. Sensitivity analyses confirm the robustness. This study fills a gap by providing rigorous causal evidence for the effectiveness of NFSM in increasing wheat production. The combined approach strengthens causal inference and offers policy insights. Expanding the NFSM and incorporating yield-improving measures can enhance the impact of the program, informing future interventions for food security.
Selected Work in Progress
“Rationing of production and separability failure in the Agricultural household model.”
“Agricultural Development and Environmental Quality in India” (with Kyle Emerick and Marina M. Ngoma)