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[for publications in peer-reviewed journals, please see Research tab]
PUBLISHED REPORTS/PAPERS/BOOK CHAPTERS
Asian Development Outlook April 2025: Trade Uncertainty Challenges Asia's Resilience
Asia-Pacific Climate Report October 2024: Catalyzing Finance and Policy Solutions
Asian Development Outlook September 2024: Global Spillovers from Data-Dependent Fed Policy
Asian Development Outlook April 2024: Robust Growth Amid Uncertain External Prospects
Asian Development Outlook April 2023: Asia in the Global Transition to Net Zero
Asian Development Outlook September 2022: Entrepreneurship in the Digital Age
Asian Development Outlook April 2022: Mobilizing Taxes for Development
Asian Development Outlook September 2021: Transforming Agriculture in Asia
Asian Development Outlook April 2021: Financing a Green and Inclusive Recovery The Impact of COVID-19 on Developing Asia: The Pandemic Extends into 2021, ADB Policy Brief No. 159. Manila: Asian Development Bank, December 2020. With E. Lavina, R. Platitas, J. Pagaduan, and C. Jabagat.
Asian Development Outlook September 2020: Wellness in Worrying Times
“The Impact of COVID-19 on Developing Asian Economies: The Role of Outbreak Severity, Containment Stringency, and Mobility Declines,” in COVID in Developing Economies, S. Djankov and U. Panizza (eds.), pp.86-99. London: Centre for Economic Policy Research, June 2020. With M. Arao, E. Lavina, R. Platitas, J. Pagaduan, and C. Jabagat.
Asian Development Outlook April 2020: What Drives Innovation in Asia? Special Topic on “The Impact of COVID-19 on Developing Asia—An Update.”
“The Past and Future Role of Infrastructure in Asia's Development,” Chapter 1 in Infrastructure Financing in Asia, B. Susantono, D. Park, and S. Tian (eds.), pp.1-25. Singapore: World Scientific, January 2020. With R. Hasan, Y. Jiang, and E. Patalinghug.
“Pursuing Macroeconomic Stability,” Chapter 10 in Asia's Journey to Prosperity: Policy, Market, and Technology Over 50 Years. Manila: Asian Development Bank, January 2020.
Asian Development Outlook September 2019: Fostering Growth and Inclusion in Asia's Cities
Asian Development Outlook April 2019: Strengthening Disaster Resilience. Associated blog “Trade policy uncertainty is at all-time highs—and that’s bad news” published by Asian Development Blog, June 2019.
Sustaining Transit Investment in Asia’s Cities: A Beneficiary-Funding and Land Value Capture Perspective, ADB report, April 2019. With K. Farrin and C. Hale.
“The Impact of the Trade Conflict on Developing Asia,” Asian Development Outlook Update, September 2018, pp. 26-34. Full analysis in ADB Working Paper No. 566, December 2018.
“Global Value Chain Participation in Asia and the Pacific: Variations Across Economies, Across Sectors, and Over Time,” Key Indicators for Asia and the Pacific, September 2018, pp. 204-11.
“Transcending the Middle-Income Challenge,” Asian Development Outlook, April 2017. Associated blog, “Can Asia Reach High Income?” published by Brookings in May 2017.
“Meeting Asia’s Infrastructure Needs,” ADB Report, February 2017. Associated blog, “Assessing Asia’s infrastructure investment needs,” published February 2017.
“Structural Change and Moderating Growth in the People's Republic of China: Implications for Developing Asia and Beyond,” ADB Report, December 2016. Summarized in ADB Brief No. 53, March 2016. Project Syndicate op-ed, “China and the Future of Commodity Prices,” with S. Wei.
“Is It Time for An Infrastructure Push? The Macroeconomic Effects of Public Investment,” IMF World Economic Outlook, Chapter 3, October 2014. Also appeared as IMF WP/15/95, May 2015.
Ukraine: Ex-Post Evaluation Of Exceptional Access Under The 2010 Stand-By Arrangement. IMF Country Report 14/146, May 2014.
“Dancing Together? Spillovers, Common Shocks, and the Role of Financial and Trade Linkages,” IMF World Economic Outlook, Chapter 3, October 2013. With D. Furceri, S. Kalemli-Ozcan, and A. Pescatori.
“Emerging Market Politics and Financial Institutions” in Handbooks in Financial Globalization (Vol. 3: Safeguarding Global Financial Stability), G. Caprio (ed.), Elsevier, 2013.
“Resilience in Emerging Market and Developing Economies: Will it Last?” IMF World Economic Outlook, October 2012. Also appeared as IMF WP/12/300, December 2012.
“Separated at Birth? The Twin Budget and Trade Balances,” IMF World Economic Outlook, September 2011. With J. Bluedorn, J. Guajardo, M. Kumhof, D. Leigh.
“Creditless Recoveries,” With G. Dell’Ariccia and B. Li. Chapter in Financial Crises: Causes, Consequences, and Policy Responses, S. Claessens, M. Kose, L. Laeven, F. Valencia (eds.), 2014, and as IMF WP/11/58, March 2011.
“Do Financial Crises Have Lasting Effects on Trade?” IMF World Economic Outlook, October 2010. Also appeared as IMF WP/11/3, January 2011.
“Country and Regional Perspectives,” Chapter 2 in various issues of the IMF World Economic Outlook: April 2013 (where I authored the Spillover Feature on “Spillovers from Policy Uncertainty in the United States and Europe), April 2012, April 2011, and April 2010.
“Getting the Balance Right: Transitioning out of Sustained Current Account Surpluses,” IMF World Economic Outlook, Chapter 4, April 2010. With D. Leigh and M. Terrones.
“What’s the Damage? Medium-term Output Dynamics After Banking Crises,” IMF World Economic Outlook, Chapter 4, October 2009. With R. Balakrishnan, P. Koeva-Brooks, D. Leigh, and I. Tytell. Also appeared as chapter in Financial Crises: Causes, Consequences, and Policy Responses, S. Claessens, M. Kose, L. Laeven, F. Valencia (eds.), 2014, and as IMF WP/09/245, November 2009.
“Early Warning Systems: A Regime-switching Approach” in Hidden Markov Models in Finance, R. Mamon and R. Elliott (eds.), NY: Springer-Verlag, 2007 (IMF WP/03/32, Feb. 2003).
Growth in the Central and Eastern European Countries of the European Union, IMF Occasional Paper No. 252, December 2006. With D. Leigh, A. Mody, and S. Schadler.
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