Journal Articles:

"Countering Coups: Leadership Succession Rules in Dictatorships." Comparative Political Studies, forthcoming (with Elizabeth A. Stein)

"Pathways to Democratization in Personalist Dictatorships." Democratization, forthcoming (with Andrea Kendall-Taylor)

"When Dictators Die." Journal of Democracy, 2016, Vol. 27, No. 4 (with Andrea Kendall-Taylor)

"The Legacy of Dictatorship for Democratic Parties in Latin America." Journal of Politics in Latin America, 2016, Vol 8., No. 1 (with Barbara Geddes)

"Are Coups Good for Democracy?" Research and Politics, 2016, Vol. 3, No. 1 (with George Derpanopoulos, Barbara Geddes, and Joseph Wright), Appendix here

"Oil and Autocratic Regime Survival.'' British Journal of Political Science, 2015, Vol. 45 No. 2 (with Joseph Wright and Barbara Geddes)

"A Dictator's Toolkit: Understanding How Cooptation Affects Repression in Autocracies." Journal of Peace Research, 2014, Vol. 51 No. 3 (with Andrea Kendall-Taylor)

"Autocratic Breakdown and Regime Transitions: A New Data Set." Perspectives on Politics, 2014, Vol. 12 No. 2 (with Barbara Geddes and Joseph Wright)

"Military Rule." Annual Review of Political Science, 2014, Vol. 17 No. 1 (with Barbara Geddes and Joseph Wright)

"Revisiting the Concept of the Failed State: Bringing the State Back In." Third World Quarterly, 2013, Vol. 34 No. 8 (with Natasha Ezrow)

Short Essays and Articles:

"Autocracy." Oxford Research Encyclopedia of Politics, April 2016

"Mimicking Democracy to Prolong Autocracies." The Washington Quarterly, 2014, Vol. 37 No. 4 (with Andrea Kendall-Taylor)

"How Autocracies Fall." The Washington Quarterly, 2014, Vol. 37 No. 1 (with Andrea Kendall-Taylor)

"Autocratic Fate: How Leaders' Post-Tenure Expectations Influence the Behavior of Dictatorships." Whitehead Journal of International Diplomacy, 2014, Vol. 15 No. 1 (with Andrea Kendall-Taylor and Natasha Ezrow)

"State Institutions and the Survival of Dictatorships." Journal of International Affairs, 2011, Vol. 46 No. 1 (with Natasha Ezrow)

Working Papers:

"Smarter Authoritarianism: The Survival Tools of Today's Dictators" (with Lee Morgenbesser) (please email for latest version)

"Capital Escape: How Developing Countries Lose Money in Election Years"

"The Legacy of Military Dictatorship: Explaining Violent Crime in New Democracies" (please email for latest version)

"The Politics of Diversion: Disentangling the Relationship Between Time Horizons and the Decision to Use Force"