Journal Articles:

"Voter Turnout and Opposition Performance in Competitive Authoritarian Elections." Electoral Studies, forthcoming.

"The Legacy of Military Dictatorship: Explaining Violent Crime in Democracies." International Political Science Review, forthcoming

"Elections and Capital Flight: Evidence from Africa." International Studies Quarterly, 2018, Vol. 62, No. 1

"Countering Coups: Leadership Succession Rules in Dictatorships." Comparative Political Studies, 2017, Vol. 50, No. 7 (with Elizabeth A. Stein)

"Pathways to Democratization in Personalist Dictatorships." Democratization, 2017, Vol. 24, No. 1 (with Andrea Kendall-Taylor)

"How Oil Income and Missing Hydrocarbon Rents Data Influence Autocratic Survival: A Response to Lucas and Richter (2016)." Research and Politics, 2017, Vol. 4, No. 3 (with Joseph Wright)

"Are Coups Good for Democracy? A Response to Miller (2016)." Research and Politics, 2017, Vol. 4, No. 2 (with George Derpanopoulos, Barbara Geddes, and Joseph Wright)

"When Dictators Die." Journal of Democracy, 2016, Vol. 27, No. 4 (with Andrea Kendall-Taylor)

"The Legacy of Dictatorship for Democratic Parties in Latin America." Journal of Politics in Latin America, 2016, Vol. 8, No. 1 (with Barbara Geddes)

"Are Coups Good for Democracy?" Research and Politics, 2016, Vol. 3, No. 1 (with George Derpanopoulos, Barbara Geddes, and Joseph Wright), Appendix here

"Oil and Autocratic Regime Survival.'' British Journal of Political Science, 2015, Vol. 45 No. 2 (with Joseph Wright and Barbara Geddes)

"A Dictator's Toolkit: Understanding How Cooptation Affects Repression in Autocracies." Journal of Peace Research, 2014, Vol. 51 No. 3 (with Andrea Kendall-Taylor)

"Autocratic Breakdown and Regime Transitions: A New Data Set." Perspectives on Politics, 2014, Vol. 12 No. 2 (with Barbara Geddes and Joseph Wright)

* Top ten most cited articles in Perspectives on Politics since 2003

"Military Rule." Annual Review of Political Science, 2014, Vol. 17 No. 1 (with Barbara Geddes and Joseph Wright)

"Revisiting the Concept of the Failed State: Bringing the State Back In." Third World Quarterly, 2013, Vol. 34 No. 8 (with Natasha Ezrow)

Short Essays and Articles:

"Authoritarian Politics: Trends and Debates." Politics and Governance, 2018, Vol. 6, No. 2

"The Evolution of Autocracy: Why Authoritarianism Is Becoming More Formidable." Survival, 2017, Vol. 59, No. 5 (with Andrea Kendall-Taylor)

* Featured on Survival's "Editors' picks: Ten of the best Survival articles from 2017"

"The Global Rise of Personalized Politics: It's Not Just Dictators Anymore." The Washington Quarterly, 2017, Vol. 40, No. 1 (with Andrea Kendall-Taylor and Joseph Wright)

"Autocracy." Oxford Research Encyclopedia of Politics, April 2016

"Mimicking Democracy to Prolong Autocracies." The Washington Quarterly, 2014, Vol. 37, No. 4 (with Andrea Kendall-Taylor)

"How Autocracies Fall." The Washington Quarterly, 2014, Vol. 37, No. 1 (with Andrea Kendall-Taylor)

"Autocratic Fate: How Leaders' Post-Tenure Expectations Influence the Behavior of Dictatorships." Whitehead Journal of International Diplomacy, 2014, Vol. 15, No. 1 (with Andrea Kendall-Taylor and Natasha Ezrow)

"State Institutions and the Survival of Dictatorships." Journal of International Affairs, 2011, Vol. 46, No. 1 (with Natasha Ezrow)

Working Papers:

"Theories of Democratic Change Phase II: Paths Away from Authoritarianism." USAID, DRG Center Working Paper

"Smarter Authoritarianism: The Survival Tools of Dictators" (with Lee Morgenbesser) (please email for latest version)

"The Politics of Diversion: Disentangling the Relationship Between Time Horizons and the Decision to Use Force"