Bubble Watch & Bracketology Tuesday 3/3

2 Teams still on the Bubble - What Needs to Happen

Ashland - Needs Lebanon to lose AND Crescent Valley to win for the last at large

Lebanon - Needs to beat South Albany, OR Crescent Valley needs to lose to secure AQ

Crescent Valley - They're in win or lose. Their OSAA rank is too high

What to watch for tonight

5 teams are involved what could potentially be huge movements in the current ranking.  Not only will this impact their own rankings, but also who they'll be matched up against. A lot of variables going that will have ripple effects throughout.

#8 Wilsonville

Will likely be overtaken in RPI by winner of the Crescent Valley/Central game tonight shifting them to #9 in RPI, while remaining #8 in Colley. Central winning should elevate the Panther’s at least 3 points in the RPI where both Wilsonville & Central will have an identical average rank of 8.5. Wilsonville has the higher Colley and should keep home court in this scenario. However, if Central gains any more in either ranking then they’ll overtake Wilsonville and steal homecourt. An unlikely scenario, but possible. A Crescent Valley win shouldn’t impact Wilsonville’s standing at all. If you’re a Wildcat fan… “Go Raiders”.  

#9 Crater

Comet’s will likely be overtaken in the RPI by the winner of Crescent Valley/Central tonight, & Corvallis in the Colley. If Central & Corvallis win, it could end up pushing Crater down anywhere from OSAA #10 to #12. If Crescent Valley wins, it raises that floor a bit, but don’t expect them to stay #9 by the end of the night, they have nowhere to go but down.

#10 Central

This is where it gets interesting. If they beat Crescent Valley, they probably move up to #9, #8 would be a longshot. If they lose, they could fall as far as #12. There is a log-jam in the RPI with Wilsonville, Crater, Central & Crescent Valley where there’s only 4 points separating 8th from 11th and the slightest of movements could affect big drop in the final rankings. Central will have the higher Colley tiebreaker compared to everybody else here (except Wilsonville), so if it comes down to average rank ties, they’ll have the advantage.

#11 Corvallis

We’re expecting a win vs McKay. Playing the Royal Scots won’t do them any favors in the RPI, in fact it’ll probably hurt them. The good news is that they’ll gain in the Colley, but it won’t be enough to keep up with the rest of this group & they most likely fall to #12 when the night is over.

#12 Crescent Valley

Raiders/Panthers game tonight will largely dictate how everything works out. A CV win likely boosts their RPI from 10th to 8th, but their Colley score will be stuck at 13th. This could force an average rank tie with Crater, Central & Corvallis. All they’d need is to gain 1 additional rank in either the RPI or Colley to separate from this herd.  

Bubble Watch & Bracketology Saturday 2/28

Breaking Down the RPI & Colley

Ranking's 101 - OSAA Rank is an average of the RPI Rank & Colley Rank. If you are ranked 3rd in RPI and 5th in Colley, the average will be 4th. If there are 2 teams with an identical average, the tie-breaker goes to the higher Colley score. Here are the areas we're tracking:

1st, 2nd 3rd

#1 Crook County, #2 West Albany, #3 Parkrose - These look like locks in this order with little movement left.

4th & 5th

#4 Summit & #5 Thurston - Both of these teams have an identical average rank of 4.5. Summit has the higher Colley and should stay #4, Thurston at #5.

6th & 7th

#6 Canby & #7 North Eugene - Both teams are done. Canby has a half point average lead over NE (6.5 vs 6). I don't see this changing. Both the RPI and Colley will not move enough for these 2 idle teams 

8th 

#8 Wilsonville - Wildcats with an average rank of 8. I believe they have locked up home court unless they fall to La Salle.

9th & 10th

#9 Central & #10 Crater - Tied average rank of 9.5. Central has a 19 point advantage in the Colley. If Central beats Crescent Valley, they stay at #9. If they lose, Crater most likely jumps to #9 with no league games remaining.  

11th & 12th

#11 Corvallis & #12 Crescent Valley - Corvallis has a slightly higher average rank than CV, (12 v 11.5). Corvallis finishes with McKay and will most likely gain 1 spot in the Colley. If Crescent Valley also wins, they will climb 1 spot in the RPI, and 50/50 chance they gain anther spot in the Colley. That would create a average tie at 11, where Corvallis would have the higher Colley. Corvallis should stay #11, Crescent Valley #12. 

13th

#13 Ridgeview - Ravens with an average rank 13.5 with nobody relatively close to them on either side.

14th & 15th

#14 Centennial & #15 Churchill - These 2 are tied with an average rank of 14.5. Centennial has a 36 point lead in the Colley. Too high for Churchill to overcome if they remain tied at 14.5. Centennial looks to be locked in at 14.5 if they beat Hillsboro. Churchill on the other hand still has room to move, even being finished in league play. They are 1 point away from falling in the RPI, 6 points from rising in the RPI, and 7-9 points from either rising or falling in the Colley. This is too close to call. These 2 could end up flip-flopping. 

16th

#16 Lebanon & #17 Ashland - These 2 are tied with an average rank of 16. There's only one path where Ashland gets the last at large: Lebanon must lose to South Albany & Crescent Valley must beat Central. If these 2 happen. I believe Lebanon is out, and Ashland will sneak in. 

Here's the changes from the last update