4Lights GDP Nowcast
4Lights GDP Nowcast
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The amazing St. Louis Federal Reserve makes an enormous amount of economic data easily available through FRED. Let's put that data to work.
GDP Nowcast for Current Quarter
Seasonally Adjusted Annual Rate
Indicators Observed This Quarter
How does it work? The model observes the inter-quarter changes of 50+ economic data series provided by the St. Louis Federal Reserve (FRED) system. It counts the number of data series moving in a "good" direction (e.g. unemployment rate decreases, retail sales increases, truck traffic increases, etc.). On average, if there are more "good" changes than bad, we should expect higher GDP growth.
Demographics
Jobs
Hours Worked
Wages & Income
Investment & Spending
Unemployment
Production & Trade
Prices & Inflation
Others
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