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Presidential Election Predictions
Methodology
Methodology
This prediction takes polls into account. However, as the past few elections have demonstrated, polls are only a piece of the puzzle are imperfect. This model therefore takes other factors into account such as:
The trend of each state in the past four national elections (2016-2022) as compared to the nation as a whole
Historic polling Error (national and by state)
This gist of polling error - since 1980, it is generally seen that the incumbent party tends to outperform the national polling average. Adding weight to past elections individually with 1) a Democrat in White House; 2) an open contest; and 3) a party seeking a second term in office, the national polling miss is 1.1%. This also gives the most weight to recent elections, considering the unpredictability that Donald Trump has added to polling in general.
For States, the 2022 midterm elections saw some notable polling misses in either partisan direction - those are applied as well, but ultimately shift results by less than a percentage point in almost all cases.
2024 Prediction (August 8, 2024)
2024 Prediction (August 8, 2024)
Given all of the above, this model predicts that Kamala Harris will win the popular vote by about 2.8%, somewhat less than the 4.5% margin of victory Joe Biden achieved in 2020. Harris is projected to win every state Biden won in 2020 except for Georgia, which will also give her an electoral college victory.
Harris & Walz - 49.2% (287 Electoral Votes)
Harris & Walz - 49.2% (287 Electoral Votes)
Trump & Vance - 46.4% (251 Electoral Votes)
Trump & Vance - 46.4% (251 Electoral Votes)
Close States (Less than 10% Difference)
Close States (Less than 10% Difference)
- Georgia (Trump +0.4%)
- Arizona (Harris +0.8%)
- Nevada (Harris +1.5%)
- North Carolina (Trump +2.1%)
- Wisconsin (Harris +2.2%)
- Pennsylvania (Harris +4.1%)
- Virginia (Harris +5.1%)
- New Hampshire (Harris +7.0%)
- Michigan (Harris +7.5%)
- Alaska (Trump +8.1%)
- Iowa (Trump +8.9%)
- Texas (Trump +9.4%)
- Minnesota (Harris +9.9%)
2020 Results
2020 Results
Biden & Harris - 51.3% (306 Electoral Votes)
Trump & Pence - 46.9% (232 Electoral Votes)
Close States (Less than 10% difference)
- Georgia (Biden +0.2%)
- Arizona (Biden +0.3%)
- Wisconsin (Biden +0.6%)
- Pennsylvania (Biden +1.2%)
- North Carolina (Trump +1.4%)
- Nevada (Biden +2.4%)
- Michigan (Biden +2.8%)
- Florida (Trump +3.4%)
- Texas (Trump +5.6%)
- Minnesota (Biden +7.1%)
- New Hampshire (Biden +7.4%)
- Ohio (Trump +8.0%)
- Iowa (Trump +8.2%)
- Maine (Biden +9.1%)
Senate Election Predictions
Methodology
Methodology
The same assumptions apply to the U.S. Senate elections, with the following additional built into the model.
How the incumbent performed relative to other candidates of their same party, in the same state, in the previous election (i.e., 2018). If the opposing candidate also ran in a statewide election in the past, their relative performance is also included, albeit it is weighed less heavily.
2024 Senate Prediction (August 8, 2024)
2024 Senate Prediction (August 8, 2024)
Given all of the above, this model predicts that the Republicans will gain the open Senate seat in West Virginia and narrowly defeat the incumbent in Montana, giving them a slim 51-49 margin in the Senate. This would give the Republicans control of the chamber; however, Republican Senator Lisa Murkowski has hinted at leaving the GOP in the past and registering as an independent, which could come into play in this scenario.
Republicans: 51 Seats (Gained two seats)
Republicans: 51 Seats (Gained two seats)
Democrats : 49 Seats (Lost two seats)
Democrats : 49 Seats (Lost two seats)
Close Races (Less than 10% Difference or seat changes)
Close Races (Less than 10% Difference or seat changes)
- Montana (businessman Tim Sheehy defeats Senator Jon Tester by 1.6%, Republican gain)
- **Ohio (Senator Sherrod Brown defeats businessman Bernie Moreno by 2.4%)**
- Texas (Senator Ted Cruz defeats Congressman Colin Allred by 5.5%)
- Nevada (Senator Jacky Rosen defeats veteran Sam Brown by 5.7%)
- Arizona (Congressman Ruben Gallego defeats news anchor Kari Lake by 6.3%)
- Florida (Senator Rick Scott defeats former Congresswoman Debbie Mucarsel Powell by 6.6%)
- New Jersey (Congressman Andy Kim defeats developer Curtis Bashaw by 6.6%)
- Michigan (Congresswoman Elissa Slotkin defeats former Congressman Mike Rogers by 7.4%)
- Maryland (Prince Howard's County Executive Angela Alsobrooks defeats former Governor Larry Hogan by 8.1%)
- Wisconsin (Senator Tammy Baldwin defeats developer Eric Hovde by 8.9%)
- Pennsylvania (Senator Bob Casey defeats businessman David McCormick by 9.4%)
- West Virginia (Governor Jim Justice defeats Wheeling Mayor Glenn Elliott by 33.3%, Republican gain)
House Election Predictions
Methodology
Methodology
The same assumptions apply to the U.S. model, with the following additional inputs built into the model.
Generic Ballot (def. how Democrats in aggregate perform against Republicans in aggregate) - this takes into account the average polling of this measure. However, special elections in aggregate tend to be about as predictive as the generic ballot itself in past election cycles. The national environment is determined as such
(Polled generic ballot + democratic performance in special elections compared to 2020 presidential results in that same district)/2
Given this, the political environment is predicted to yield a 2.2% Democratic advantage.
To predict 2024 results, this is weighed against the national environment in the last house election, which had an ultimate generic ballot performance of a 2.7% Republican advantage
2024 House Prediction (August 8, 2024)
2024 House Prediction (August 8, 2024)
Given all of the above, this model predicts that the Democrats will gain a net total of seven seats in the House of Representatives, giving them control of the Chamber. Hakeem Jeffries would then become the African American to be Speaker of the House.
Democrats: 221 Seats (Gained seven seats)
Democrats: 221 Seats (Gained seven seats)
Republicans: 214 (Lost seven seats)
Republicans: 214 (Lost seven seats)
Close Races in Republican held seats (Less than 10% difference or seat changes)
"**" denotes either a Democrat elected in a district that Trump wins, or a Republican elected in a district that Harris wins.Close Races in Republican held seats (Less than 10% difference or seat changes)
- Alabama 2: Attorney Shomari Figures by 8.9% (Democratic gain)
- New York 22: State Senator John Mannion defeats Congressman Brandon Williams (elected 2022) by 5.5% (Democratic gain)
- Arizona 6: Attorney Kirsten Engel defeats Congressman Juan Ciscomani (elected 2022) by 3.9% (Democratic gain)
- New York 19: Attorney Josh Riley defeats Congressman Marc Molinaro (elected 2022) by 2.9% (Democratic gain)
- Michigan 10: Former Judge Carl Marlinga defeats Congressman John James (elected 2022) by 2.8% (Democratic gain)
- **Colorado 3: Businessman Adam Frisch by 2.6% (Democratic gain)**
- Arizona 1: State Representatives Amish Shah defeats Congressman David Schweikert (elected 2010) by 2.0% (Democratic gain)
- New York 17: Former Congressman Mondaire Jones defeats Congressman Mike Lawler (elected 2022) by 1.5% (Democratic gain)
- Oregon 5: State Representative Janelle Bynum defeats Congresswoman Lori Chavez-DeRemer (elected 2022) by 0.1% (Democratic gain)
- **Iowa 3: Congressman Zach Nunn (elected 2022) by 0.3%**
- **California 22: Congressman David Valadao (elected 2020) by 0.7%**
- **California 41 Congressman Ken Calvert (elected 1992) by 0.8%**
- **California 13: Congressman John Duarte (elected 2022) by 0.8%**
- **Nebraska 2: Congressman Don Bacon (elected 2016) by 0.9%**
- **California 27: Congressman Mike Garcia (elected 2020) by 1.6%**
- **Pennsylvania 1: Congressman Brian Fitzpatrick (elected 2016) by 1.8%**
- Pennsylvania 10: Congressman Scott Perry (elected 2012) by 2.2%
- **New York 4: Congressman Anthony D'Esposito (elected 2022) by 2.6%**
- Wisconsin 1: Congressman Bryan Steil (elected 2018) by 2.9%
- **New Jersey 7: Congressman Tom Kean Jr. (elected 2022) by 3.0%**
- **California 45: Congresswoman Michelle Steel (elected 2020) by 3.1%**
- Iowa 1: Congresswoman Mariannette Miller-Meeks (elected 2020) by 3.5%
- Wisconsin 3: Congressman Derrick Van Orden (elected 2022) by 3.6%
- **Virginia 2: Congresswoman Jen Kiggans (elected 2022) by 4.0%**
- California 3: Congressman Kevin Kiley (elected 2022) by 4.6%
- Tennessee 5: Congressman Andy Ogles (elected 2022) by 5.0%
- Montana 1: Congressman Ryan Zinke (elected 2022) by 6.4%
- Michigan 4: Congressman Bill Huizenga (elected 2010) by 7.4%
- Missouri 2: Congresswoman Ann Wagner (elected 2012) by 7.8%
- Florida 13: Congresswoman Anna Paulina Luna (elected 2022) by 8.6%
- Colorado 5: Radio host Jeff Crank by 9.3%
- Arizona 2: Congressman Eli Crane (elected 2022) by 9.5%
- New York 1: Congressman Nick LaLota (elected 2022) by 9.6%
Close Races in Democratic held seats (Less than 10% difference or seat changes)
- **North Carolina 1: Congressman Don Davis (elected 2022) by 0.9%**
- **Texas 28: Congressman Henry Cuellar (elected 2004) by 2.7%**
- Texas 34: Congressman Vicente Gonzalez (elected 2016) by 3.2%
- New Mexico 2: Congressman Gabe Vasquez (elected 2022) by 3.6%
- **Maine 2: Congressman Jared Golden (elected 2018) by 5.0%**
- Michigan 7: Former State Senator Curtis Hertel Jr. by 5.7%
- Connecticut 5: Congresswoman Jahana Hayes (elected 2018) by 5.9%
- California 47: State Senator Dave Min by 6.2%
- **Alaska At-Large: Congressman Mary Peltola (elected 2022) by 6.3%**
- Illinois 17: Congressman Eric Sorenson (elected 2022) by 6.7%
- Colorado 8: Congresswoman Yadira Caraveo (elected 2022) by 6.8%
- Florida 9: Congressman Darren Soto (elected 2016) by 6.9%
- Maryland 6: Attorney April McClain-Delaney by 7.1%
- California 9: Congressman Josh Harder (elected 2018) by 7.9%
- **Washington 3: Congresswoman Marie Gluesenkamp Perez (elected 2022) by 8.1%**
- Virginia 7: Lieutenant Colonel Eugene Vindman by 8.2%
- Pennsylvania 8: Congressman Matt Cartwright (elected 2012) by 8.2%
- Pennsylvania 7: Congresswoman Susan Wild (elected 2018) by 8.2%
- Florida 23: Congressman Jared Moskowitz (elected 2022) by 8.7%
- Nevada 4: Congressman Steven Horsford (elected 2018) by 9.3%
- New York 18: Congressman Pat Ryan (elected 2022) by 9.3%
- Indiana 1: Congressman Frank Mrvan (elected 2020) by 9.7%
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