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DRAFTKINGS SENTRY TOC PREVIEW
WELCOME TO THE 2023 PGA SEASON!
INTRO - Click the #SubscibeNow link above to get all the FREE YouTube content I offer including BOTH the Preview & Picks & The DraftKings shows for The Sentry Tournament of Champions.
We start the 2023 PGA season in Hawaii with a no cut event featuring 40 qualifying players. Click the link above to see the list. The Plantation Course at Kapalua is a 7600 Yd Par 73 bunny of a course featuring just three Par 3s. The Fairways, 2.5” Rough & 8200 sq foot/avg greens are all Bermuda grass. This is a low scoring affair with the weather dictating where the score lands. The winner is typically in the mid-20s under par. If the weather is bad like in 2020, you get mid-teens & if the weather is nice, you get last year’s -34 Cam Smith. Needless to say, the wind is the main defense at Kapalua & so far, the wind looks to be DOWN so expect higher scoring. Update: Pricing is out! It's as soft as a week old banana! BTW, Rory McIlroy is OUT.
Xander Schauffele is WD from today’s Pro-Am at TOC. I have not seen an injury or illness designation. He is listed as Questionable for tomorrow’s 12:45 pm local time tee (Paired with Justin Thomas). Keep in mind this is the last tee time of the day & 3 hrs 15 min AFTER lock. Have a plan & be ready to swap out.
Justin Thomas - Make or break stat for TOC
Putting! Big surprise, right? Here's what I mean. I use a sliding scale for his SG : Putting. IF he falls in between -1 . 0. 1 he will be in contention to win. This would be why you see his top results the last 4 years & why in 2018 he finished 22nd. The previous 4 years he has been either a slight positive or slight negative. 2018 he lost over 3.5 stokes. His game is in line w/ this course, he just needs to make "Enough" putts. I mean, if he gains like 2-3 strokes, right???
It’s wide-open OTT so you can just bomb away, but you do not have to be the longest hitter to have success. Position is important as the fairways are undulating & the best wedge players will have the most opportunities to score. I will lean toward creativity & experience as course history does matter. The best overall T2G players are fine but you can always target the specialists. There's enough data on the top guys here to get an idea of how well they putt on this Bermuda surface.
Players to keep an eye on
Will Zalatoris (8900) Has been absent since a WD from the Tour Championship. He since has been diagnosed with 2 Herniated disks in his back. As someone who's had this injury, I can attest to just how debilitating & painful it is. I will play a wait & see with him. Collin Morikawa (9400) did not have a stellar 2022 season. Just 6 top 10s in full field events w/o a win after taking the tour by storm in 2021 was not ideal. He did T5 here last year & his ball striking in the fall swing has been 1st in this field by a smidge over Tom Kim. He's still suffering with the short game & putter as he's DFL.
Xander Schauffele Should be on this section as well. If you don't know by now he did WD from the Pro-Am. He has not been seen on the course Monday or Tuesday.
Playing well at Kapalua in a no cut event? I’ll start with Justin Thomas (9900) & Xander Schauffele (9500). Both these guys played the Hero a couple weeks ago & that is one trend that I like for this week. Another is these two guys excel at no cut events. Both have won several of them including this tourney in 2020, 2017 for JT & 2019 for The X Man. Both also have lots of experience at Kapalua which is important as well.
Rory McIlroy (OUT). Jon Rahm (10K) will be heavily targeted as a top level play on DK. You will have to make some choices. I like Rahm as he has the experience & success at TOC with a pair of runner-ups & nothing worse than 10th. Patrick Cantlay (9700) is another top target that may be slightly over-looked. It's been nearly 3 mos since his T2 at Shriners, but he has solid course history here & can light it up when he's on.
Big Timers - I'm not on the Tony Finau (9300) train this week. His history here is not great, but in his defense he's a much different player. He's more confident with the putter & his win equity has shot up the board. Scottie Scheffler (10300) was a T13 in his only start in 2021. He has looked really good this fall & could have won the Hero if not for a bad 1st round. Another guy who helped me cash a nice profit at Hero was Cam Young (8800). His bombs OTT should allow him 1/2 dozen more wedges into greens on the long par 4s so I have interest there. Tom Kim (8700) is also a top pick as he's one of the best Ball Strikers in the field. Viktor Hovland (8500) Has not faired well here in his 2 appearances. Recent form has not been the issue as he's won in the fall just before the Sentry both years.
The Other Guys - I like due to how well they putt on Bermuda are Sungjae IM (8300), Matt Fitzpatrick (9100), Sam Burns (8400), Brian Harman (8000) & Billy Horshel (7900). Seamus Power (7200) showed up the most in early model builds. I imagine he will be popular. There will also be plenty of pay down options to help you stack up top. Some of those like Mac Hughes (6900) & KH Lee (7K), who can get red hot with the flat stick. Then you have the punts like Luke List (6200) & Chad Ramey (6000) that may offer some scoring.
Thanks!
Billy Ho Sports