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Summary: Ofqual gave the public the impression that most cases the standardised grades the students receive would be the same as predicted grades. Close analysis shows that between 36% and 43% of every predicted grade will be downgraded, except for the predicted grade E. Overall 39% of the predicted grades will be downgraded and 61% will remain the same.
Ofqual's published data shows that on a the national scale teachers have over-predicted A-level grades. The over prediction is worst for A*, equivalent to an inflation of 77%. Ofqual says that for A-levels the predicted grades represent an overall grade inflation of 12%, which its standardisation will reduce to 2%. It gives the public the impression that despite that in most cases the grades the student receive would still be the predicted grades. However, closer analysis shows that this is not true.
To arrive at a grade distribution for 2020 similar to the 2019 distribution, with the 2% grade inflation which the BBC has reported to be at the A*/A tiers, Ofqual's standardisation has, in effect, downgraded the teacher's predicted grades as below.
Analysis of Ofqual's data shows that between 36% and 43% of each predicted grade will be downgraded, except for the predicted grade E.
In total, 39% of the predicted grades will be downgraded and 61% will remain the same.
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