Working Papers
Foreign Direct Investment and Anti-Immigrant Politics in the Global South
Job Market Paper. Presented at MPSA (2026) and APSA (2026).
Final revisions in progress; preparing for journal submission.
Manuscript available upon request.
Abstract:
Developing countries host approximately one-third of the world’s immigrants. In these contexts, where high labor substitutability and insufficient social protection intensify the perceived economic threat posed by immigrants, globalization backlash often manifests as nativism toward South–South migration. I argue that greenfield foreign direct investment (FDI) can mitigate anti-immigrant sentiment by generating employment and improving labor conditions for natives. Because these benefits primarily accrue to national citizens rather than to South–South immigrants, FDI reduces nativist sentiment by lowering labor market competition in host-immigrant relations. An analysis across 65 developing countries from 2003 to 2022 shows that higher levels of greenfield FDI are associated with lower public support for anti-immigration policies. I then leverage the adoption of International Financial Reporting Standards as an instrumental variable, with the results providing additional evidence consistent with the argument. Using fine-grained project-level FDI data and georeferenced records of xenophobic incidents, I find suggestive evidence that greenfield investments expected to create operational jobs are associated with less xenophobic displacement in South Africa. Together, these findings illuminate how foreign capital may reshape the politics of immigration in the Global South.
Great Power Rivalry and Business Realignment in Politically Aligned Countries
Revision in progress; preparing for journal submission.
Manuscript available upon request.
Abstract:
How do firms in politically aligned countries respond to great power rivalry? To reduce economic dependence on adversaries, great powers increasingly pursue supply chain realignment, incentivizing firms in aligned countries to adjust business strategy. Anticipating that U.S. trade regulations may restrict China-related activity, firms in U.S.-aligned countries shift downstream production away from China. This adjustment is pronounced in asset-specific products, as waiting is costly and deteriorating trust between geopolitical camps disproportionately raises hold-up risks for such products. Using product-level trade data on approximately 4,000 intermediate goods, I provide evidence that after the 2018 escalation of U.S.-China rivalry, exports of intermediate goods from U.S.-aligned countries to China declined, particularly in products with high asset specificity. These findings challenge conventional views of sunk costs as a constraint on business adjustment. More broadly, U.S.-China rivalry reshapes business interests in U.S.-aligned countries, potentially weakening firms' incentives to pressure governments to make political concessions toward China.
Work in Progress
- Production Networks and Labor-Migration Policy in the Global North
(Dissertation Chapter)
- Blaming Whom? Past Aid Defection, Electoral Turnover, and Donor-Country Public Opinion
(Survey experiment scheduled to be fielded in Fall 2026. Manuscript expected by December 2026.)
This project examines whether the reputational damage caused by an aid recipient’s past defection carries over to a successor government. I argue that while defection reduces donor-country public support for future development assistance, electoral turnover in the recipient country can restore trust when it brings a different party to power, breaking the perceived political link between the successor government and its predecessor. This allows donor-country citizens to attribute blame to the government responsible for defection rather than to the recipient country as a whole. Leveraging donor competition in cross-strait relations, I will test this argument with a factorial survey experiment in Taiwan. Existing work emphasizes recipient countries’ democratic values and human rights records in shaping donor support for foreign aid. This project instead highlights an underexplored institutional advantage of democracy: partisan turnover can credibly signal to international audiences that a successor government is politically distinct from the government responsible for past defection, helping restore prospects for future international cooperation.
- Unbundling Human Rights: International Human Rights Treaties and Public Support for Immigrant Rights
(with Shao-Yun Lin, The Ohio State University)
- Data Localization and Greenfield Data Center Investment
(with Guang-Xuan Zhou, University of Virginia)
- Keeping Production at Home: National Security and Public Support for Industrial Policy