Working Papers
Foreign Direct Investment and Anti-Immigrant Politics in the Global South
Job Market Paper. Presented at MPSA (2026) and APSA (2026).
Final revisions in progress; preparing for journal submission.
Manuscript available upon request.
Abstract:
Developing countries host approximately one-third of the world’s immigrants. In these contexts, where high labor substitutability and insufficient social protection intensify the perceived economic threat posed by immigrants, globalization backlash often manifests as nativism toward South–South migration. I argue that greenfield foreign direct investment (FDI) can mitigate anti-immigrant sentiment by generating employment and improving labor conditions for natives. Because these benefits primarily accrue to national citizens rather than to South–South immigrants, FDI reduces nativist sentiment by lowering labor market competition in host-immigrant relations. An analysis across 65 developing countries from 2003 to 2022 shows that higher levels of greenfield FDI are associated with lower public support for anti-immigration policies. I then leverage the adoption of International Financial Reporting Standards as an instrumental variable, with the results providing additional evidence consistent with the argument. Using fine-grained project-level FDI data and georeferenced records of xenophobic incidents, I find suggestive evidence that greenfield investments expected to create operational jobs are associated with less xenophobic displacement in South Africa. Together, these findings illuminate how foreign capital may reshape the politics of immigration in the Global South.
Great Power Rivalry and Business Realignment in Politically Aligned Countries
Revision in progress; preparing for journal submission.
Manuscript available upon request.
Abstract:
How do firms in politically aligned countries respond to great power rivalry? To reduce economic dependence on adversaries, great powers increasingly pursue supply chain realignment, incentivizing firms in aligned countries to adjust business strategy. Anticipating that U.S. trade regulations may restrict China-related activity, firms in U.S.-aligned countries shift downstream production away from China. This adjustment is pronounced in asset-specific products, as waiting is costly and deteriorating trust between geopolitical camps disproportionately raises hold-up risks for such products. Using product-level trade data on approximately 4,000 intermediate goods, I provide evidence that after the 2018 escalation of U.S.-China rivalry, exports of intermediate goods from U.S.-aligned countries to China declined, particularly in products with high asset specificity. These findings challenge conventional views of sunk costs as a constraint on business adjustment. More broadly, U.S.-China rivalry reshapes business interests in U.S.-aligned countries, potentially weakening firms' incentives to pressure governments to make political concessions toward China.
Work in Progress
- Production Networks and Labor-Migration Policy in the Global North
- Blaming Whom? Past Aid Defection, Electoral Turnover, and Donor-Country Public Opinion
(Survey experiment scheduled to be fielded in Fall 2026. Manuscript expected by December 2026.)
- Unbundling Human Rights: International Human Rights Treaties and Public Support for Immigrant Rights
(with Shao-Yun Lin, The Ohio State University)
- Data Localization and Greenfield Data Center Investment
(with Guang-Xuan Zhou, University of Virginia)
- Keeping Production at Home: National Security and Public Support for Industrial Policy