Working Papers
Manuscripts available upon request.
Foreign Direct Investment and Anti-Immigrant Politics in the Global South
Job Market Paper. Presented at MPSA (2026) and APSA (2026).
Abstract:
Developing countries host approximately one-third of the world’s immigrants. In these contexts, where high labor substitutability and insufficient social protection intensify the perceived economic threat posed by immigrants, globalization backlash often manifests as nativism toward South–South migration. I argue that greenfield foreign direct investment (FDI) can mitigate anti-immigrant sentiment by generating employment and improving labor conditions for natives. Because these benefits primarily accrue to national citizens rather than to South–South immigrants, FDI reduces nativist sentiment by lowering labor market competition in host-immigrant relations. An analysis across 65 developing countries from 2003 to 2022 shows that higher levels of greenfield FDI are associated with lower public support for anti-immigration policies. I then leverage the adoption of International Financial Reporting Standards as an instrumental variable, with the results providing additional evidence consistent with the argument. Combining fine-grained project-level FDI data with georeferenced data on xenophobic incidents, I also provide suggestive evidence that greenfield FDI associated with expected operational job creation is negatively associated with xenophobic displacement in South Africa. Together, these findings illuminate how foreign capital may reshape the politics of immigration in the Global South.
Great Power Rivalry and Business Realignment in Politically Aligned Countries
Revision in progress; preparing for journal submission.
Abstract:
How do firms in politically aligned countries respond to great power rivalry? To reduce economic dependence on adversaries, great powers have increasingly pursued supply chain realignment, creating new business opportunities for firms in aligned countries. I argue that this geopolitical shift incentivizes firms in U.S.-aligned countries to shift production linkages away from China in order to preserve future access to the U.S. market, the world’s largest final market. Moreover, even in the presence of high sunk costs, this adjustment is concentrated in sectors characterized by relationship-specific contracts. Using product-level trade data, I show that following the 2018 escalation of U.S.-China rivalry, U.S.-aligned countries reduced exports of intermediate goods to China primarily in sectors with high relationship-specific investment. These findings challenge conventional views that emphasize sunk costs as a constraint on trade adjustment. More broadly, great power competition may reshape the interests of business coalitions in aligned countries, potentially weakening their incentives to pressure home governments to make political concessions toward rival great powers.
Work in Progress
- Production Networks and Labor-Migration Policy in the Global North
(Dissertation Chapter)
- The Enduring Reputational Costs of Recipient Defection in Donor-Country Public Opinion
(Manuscript expected by December 2026.)
- Unbundling Human Rights: International Human Rights Treaties and Public Support for Immigrant Rights
(with Shao-Yun Lin, Ohio State University)
- Data Localization and Greenfield Data Center Investment
(with Guang-Xuan Zhou, University of Virginia)
- National Security and Public Support for Industrial Policy