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Opensource database of coronal and interplanetary shocks
Data-based predictions of solar energetic particle arrival to the Earth
Data-based predictions of solar energetic particle arrival to the Earth
For a couple of decades, we have been living in a technological environment that strongly depends on the internet, telecommunications, and space infrastructures and which is exposed to the dangers associated with solar and space variability. Space perturbations like coronal mass ejections (CMEs) and solar energetic particles (SEPs) represent a threat to technological security. Energetic particles are ubiquitous in interplanetary space and the Sun is a powerful accelerator of particles with energies up to 1 GeV. Those particles are detected near the Earth as SEPs and represent a natural hazard for the functioning of commercial and scientific satellites, as well as for astronauts during space journeys. This project aims at achieving a major leap forward in our predictive capabilities of SEP events in relation to space weather forecasts. This will be pursued by setting up a tight link between observations, data analysis, and numerical simulations. We will set up a comprehensive database of CMEs/shocks as observed at the solar source and in the interplanetary space by exploiting data from past and ongoing space missions. Following the evolution of the parameters characterizing the CMEs from the source to space will help space weather models to predict the arrival of SEPs at the Earth. Such parameters will be stored in a database. In addition, the turbulence properties of interplanetary CMEs will be investigated. The parameters obtained from spacecraft observations will be used as input for an innovative test-particle model, where SEPs interact with a 3D anisotropic turbulence. The results of the project will be made available to space weather infrastructures like the ESA Space Weather Service Network.
The research project “Data-based predictions of solar energetic particle arrival to the Earth” is funded by the Italian Ministry of Research under the grant scheme PRIN-2022-PNRR.
Analysis of CME-driven shock in corona
Analysis of CME-driven shock in corona
The goal of the project is to track Coronal Mass Ejections (CME) - driven shocks from the corona to the interplanetary space, by computing the shock parameters with in-situ and remote sensing techniques. To fulfill this objective, a tool for the 3D reconstruction of the CME-driven shock has been developed.
The shock geometry is inferred by using mostly STEREO-A/COR2 and SOHO/LASCO observations as an expanding ellipsoid. The density compression ratio and the Mach number of the shock is then determined with a fit of the brightness profile from the coronagraphic observations. The obtained shock parameters from remote observations are reported in the data-base together with the in-situ estimations.
In-situ spacecraft data
In-situ spacecraft data
The shock parameters derived from remote observations are also evaluated in-situ using measurements of the magnetic field vector and particles from satellites such as Solar Orbiter, Parker Solar Probe, Wind and ACE.
In addition, turbulent properties around CMEs, in particular, the power spectral density, the degree of intermittency, and the correlation length in the upstream (the unshocked medium) and in the downstream (the shocked medium) regions are computed and stored in the data-base.
Synthetic turbulence model for Energetic Particle Propagation
Synthetic turbulence model for Energetic Particle Propagation
We have developed a mathematical model that reproduces the turbulent magnetic field that permeates the heliosphere. The model is based on a wavelet method, which allows reproducing larger spectral extensions of the turbulent fluctuations with respect to classical Fourier methods. The model reproduces several observational features such as the radial dependence of the fluctuation amplitude and correlation length on the distance from the Sun. The Solar Energetic Particles are modelled as test particles that move in the synthetically generated turbulent field.
Left: turbulent heliospheric magnetic field. Right: fluctuations scaling with radial distance.
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